Mexico: talented squad, but highly unpredictable
No other country has such a frustratingly consistent record at recent World Cups. Mexico have been eliminated at the second round stage in 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006 and 2010 – often after some promising performances in the group stage.
By now, they should be capable of pushing on and finally reaching the quarter-final stage. They were genuinely impressive at points in 2010, won the Gold Cup in 2011 with a brilliant 4-2 win over the USA in one of the best international finals in recent memory, then shocked Brazil the next year by winning the Olympic title.
However, there have been serious problems since then. World Cup qualification was a farce, with four different coaches taking charge of Mexico games in 2013, amongst various tales of player indiscipline. Miguel Herrera was appointed shortly before the play-off victory over New Zealand, triumphed with a squad of purely domestic-based players, and now has gradually brought European-based stars back into the side, although Carlos Vela remains in international exile.
For the third consecutive World Cup, Mexico will play a back three. In 2006 it was 3-4-1-2, in 2010 it was 3-4-3, and now it’s more like a 3-5-2. Mexico play an attacking game, attempting to command possession and throwing plenty of players forward, although it’s hard to believe there won’t be some defensive mistakes.
Uncertain backline
As in 2010, the key to the backline is Rafael Marquez. Captain for the fourth tournament in a row, a World Cup first, he understands the positional requirements of playing in this defence, covering for the two markers either side when needed, but also stepping up ahead of them to start passing moves from a deep-lying midfield role. When this works it’s brilliant to watch, but Marquez’s mobility has declined, and neither of the centre-backs are entirely comfortable covering the wide areas.
Probable Mexican XI
In particular, the right-sided centre-back Francisco Rodriguez looks clumsy on the ball, lacks pace, and doesn’t really suit a three-man defence in an attacking side – he’d be more at home in a back four, on the edge of his own box. Hector Moreno is a much better defender – more mobile, better positionally, good on the ball and left-sided, which helps the balance of the defence.
Therefore, it seems highly likely Mexico’s errors will come from the right of the defence, with the different abilities of the wing-backs a further reason to believe there’s an imbalance in the side. Paul Aguilar pootles up and down the line rather tentatively, while Miguel Layun motors forward with great attacking intent.
Whereas in 2010 Mexico played a front three and therefore had natural attacking width, now there’s more responsibility on the wing-backs to push high up the field.
Decent midfield
The midfield is also different from at previous World Cups, with one sole holding midfielder and two who push on. Jose Vazquez is a small, stocky holder who breaks up play, and the attacking qualities come from his two midfield colleagues.
Andres Guardado is a left-sided, energetic player who dribbles with the ball at great speed, but can lack end product, while Hector Herrera is a powerful and technically talented box-to-box midfielder, who will probably captain Mexico in future and is their best hope of being able to dominate matches here.
Quality upfront
Upfront, Herrera seems likely to leave out Javier Hernandez. The Manchester United poacher plays more of an all-round role with the Mexican side, dropping off the front into wide positions, but hasn’t appeared sharp in that position having been displaced upfront by the ruthless, clinical Oribe Peralta, who has a turn of speed and scored the crucial goals against Brazil in the Olympic final.
That means, somewhat pleasingly, Giovani dos Santos should start instead. While his club career stalled quite astonishingly having left Barcelona in 2008, he’s enjoyed a good campaign with Villarreal and more importantly, is a consistently brilliant ‘tournament’ footballer. Deep breath: he won individual awards at world U17 and U20 level, was named the best player at the Gold Cup in 2009, the second-best youngster at the actual World Cup in 2010, scored the sublime clinching goal in the 2011 Gold Cup, and then has looked lively at the 2011 Copa America, the victorious 2012 Olympics and the 2013 Confederations Cup.
It’s difficult to think of another player who has so consistently underwhelmed at club level while looking so dangerous for his international side, but that’s not an uncommon problem for Mexican players in Europe. Dos Santos’ main quality is his appreciation of space, always drifting laterally to collect the ball in wide areas, before dribbling directly towards goal. Against Croatia and Cameroon sides that lack protection for the defence, he could be a (belated) revelation.
Conclusion
Who knows? On paper this seems a good team, but Herrera was appointed relatively recently and it’s tough to know how effectively the players understand his gameplan. Marquez and Vazquez have huge responsibilities positionally, while Aguilar, Herrera, Guardado and Layun need to cover lots of ground. The front two, with Hernandez an option from the bench, should grab some goals.
The defensive section of the side will surely make errors, and therefore it’s tough to imagine Mexico finally reaching the quarter-final stage. The final group game against Croatia will probably decide whether Mexico go out in round one, or round two.
Quick guide
Coach: Miguel Hector Herrera – likes attacking football, and players he knows
Formation: 5-3-2 in defence, something like 3-1-4-2 in attack
Key player: Herrera can help dominate the midfield
Strength: A good left flank
Weakness: Likely to make defensive errors
Key tactical question: Can Dos Santos find space?
Worth noting that Medina was injured in training last month and didn’t travel to Brazil. All indications are that his spot will be filled by Jose Juan Vazquez, a similar (and similarly limited) player. The rest of your lineup looks spot-on, based on the last friendly.
Oops – thanks!
Love your usage of pootle there, Michael. I had a mental image of Aguilar strolling in a daisy-filled garden.
…Yeah, my mind can be rather strange at times!
Haha! I should have gone for your more complete metaphor
Never too late to make edits
Thank god this isn’t all in print
Agree about Guardado – never really rated him; like you say lacks productivity and offers little aside from energy. Would much rather see Carlos ‘Gullit’ Pena get the nod. Suppose he’s similar in style to Herrera, being a good, technical all-rounder who’s almost certain to move to Europe if he sees much game time this summer. Also hopeful for some classy cameos from talented, goal-scoring attacking midfielder Marco Fabian.
This Mexico side has potential, but probably haven’t played together enough. The key game will be against Croatia, which should be very open. But I don’t think they have enough quality throughout the team to get the best of their more talented players. Another team that looks weaker than in previous tournaments, they have a chance in what is a fairly weak group, Brazil aside. Should be between them and Croatia, with Croatia slight favourites I would think.
There are a couple main problems with Mexico that are worth mentioning
1. Their domestic league players have seen plenty of action but aren’t able to take control in bigger games. They played pretty well at home against Portugal, but didn’t really create enough chances to trouble a reserve defense.
2. They rely almost exclusively on dos Santos for creativity and cross far too often despite having smaller forwards. Hernandez is good in the air but doesn’t get played that far forward in the national set-up like you mentioned
3. Lastly, this is more of a selection problem but their European based players who are quite good haven’t been getting enough games or aren’t in the best form. Chicharito had a good goals per minute average but played too sparingly. Guardado is also forced to start centrally due to a lack of other creative midfielders.
4. Their defense is actually in my opinion one of their better elements but that could be because I’ve only seen weaker CONCACAF sides grind out results and not create many chances.
Brazil will gladly let Mexico have the ball, much like the Confederations Cup game, knowing that they can squeeze them to the flanks and cause them to produce poor crosses. Croatia will probably boss them in midfield and dominate them aerially. Even an aging Cameroon could get something, they looked very impressive against Germany even if it was a warm-up friendly.
Mexico didn’t play at home against Portugal. They played in Boston, in front of a mostly pro-Portuguese crowd.
Brilliant analysis! After following Reyes season for Porto I think that he deserves an opportunity replacing “maza” Rodriguez. However, he stills young and unexperienced. If Mexico manage to win the first game we might have a chance to do something important.
If Vela agreeded to play we could have better chances. Nonetheless, nobody knows why he didn’t want to play for the national team. It is say that our best player nowadays will not play.
This Mexico side is a throwback to the LaVolpe days. Finishing in 2nd place is a viable option, but that will probably be it…again. The wingbacks this year are of a very good standard, but the question, like Croatia, is the lack of midfield support behind the front 1 or 2, in this case. The side is built to build scoring opportunities in a dynamic manner, but if Peralta has a day off, all the chances are worthless. Gio needs to step up, and a plan B of creating from central positions must concern Herrera. Medina looked promising, though to be honest the match he got injured in was the first/last I saw of him.
On a side note, respect to Rafa Marquez. Class is permanent
You may be confusing Medina with Luis Montes, who was indeed promising. The first got injured in training about a month ago; Vazquez was probably gonna start in the long run anyways, so that didn’t make much difference.
Good analysis, just two mistakes at the end
“Coach: Miguel Hector Herrera”
The coach name is Miguel Ernesto Herrera. Hector Miguel Herrera is the midfielder.
“– likes attacking football, and players he knows”
As someone who followed Mexico closely, he hasn’t really based his decisions on whether he knows the players, outside his first games as coach.
Also, Reyes (def) and Peña (mid) were expected to start the WC in place of Rodriguez and Guardado, but they were ultimately benched because the first is seen to be “distracted” (he’s young) and the second because apparently he’s not in his level due to tiredness. Both great young players I would’ve liked to see start.