Colombia: absences to prompt tactical re-think?
Colombia are the South American equivalent of Belgium – after being absent for a few World Cups, they’ve suddenly turned up with some brilliant footballers, especially in attacking positions.
Much like Belgium, however, they’re forced to cope without their star centre-forward. Radamel Falcao’s absence had been suspected since January but was only confirmed a fortnight before the start of the tournament. With key central midfielder Edwin Valencia suffering an injury in a warm-up match and veteran centre-back Luis Perea deemed unfit, the spine of Colombia’s side is entirely up for question.
The main issue is upfront. While Falcao was unquestionably Colombia’s best striker, they still have great options upfront – Porto’s Jackson Martinez, Sevilla’s Carlos Bacca, River Plate’s Teo Gutierrez and Dortmund-bound Adrian Ramos are all genuinely exciting strikers, and differ in style too. These options mean Pekerman generally played a 4-4-2 throughout qualification, with one of these players (usually Gutierrez) alongside Falcao. With four options to choose from, Colombia can certainly continue playing 4-4-2 / 4-2-2-2.
Re-shape?
Falcao’s absence might change things, however. His role for the national side was strange – sometimes, like at the Copa America in 2011, he was overly keen to become involved in link-up play, but didn’t do it very well. Other times, he stayed upfront and seemed distant from the rest of the side. While a brilliant goalscorer, Falcao wasn’t particularly good at linking play and providing the attacking midfielders with service, and it’s not too much of an exaggeration to suggest Colombia might play better without him. The example of Atletico Madrid this season, after his departure backs up this feeling. Bacca, for example, isn’t anywhere near as good at finishing, but holds the ball up excellently for attacking midfielders.
Possible Colombia XI
This is another area where Colombia have great strength in depth, and Pekerman might decide he’s better off bringing James Rodriguez inside to play in the number ten position in a 4-2-3-1, with a runner like Victor Ibarbo on the left. Or he could field James on the left, and field the tiny but wonderfully talented Juan Quintero, a proper number ten with a great left foot.
This would bring more structure to Colombia’s side, but it would mean omitting one of their talented forwards. It’s a tricky decision for Pekerman, and there’s a good chance Colombia will switch between 4-2-3-1 and 4-4-2 throughout this competition, according to the circumstances of the game.
Flanks
In the 4-4-2, Colombia’s main strength is down the flanks, although it’s the attacking instincts of these players that makes Pekerman so worried about the structure. On paper, Rodriguez from the left and Cuadrado from the right brings perfect balance: James drifts inside and becomes a playmaker, capable of dominating a game and providing outrageous creative moments from between the lines.
Cuadrado is a direct winger who was once guilty of overdoing his tricks, but has become a cool, efficient and ruthless goalscorer at Fiorentina. From a neutral’s perspective, it would be fantastic to see Rodriguez and Cuadrado two on the wings, alongside two proper strikers, but Pekerman is always more cautious than you wish.
Colombia also have fine attacking full-backs. Pablo Armero is better as a wing-back than a pure full-back, and there are questions about his defensive ability, but he charges forward dangerously with possession. Juan Zuniga, his Napoli teammate and therefore also accustomed to a wing-back role, offers something similar from the right. The problem, however, is that they leave the defence exposed when they bomb forward.
Inevitably this means Pekerman is defensive in the centre of midfield, which is why Inter’s rampaging Fredy Guarin doesn’t see much action. Valencia’s absence means Pekerman can’t field two pure scrappers, however, so Colombia will use Carlos Sanchez as the primary holder. He doesn’t contribute much aside from good positioning and aggressive tackling, in a role similar to that played by Javier Mascherano for Argentina. The other midfielder, Abel Aguilar, will be given more freedom to move forward.
Defence
Again, without being harsh, Perea’s injury might be a good thing for Colombia. He’s solid in the air, but is now 35 and alongside the extremely slow Mario Yepes, 38, Colombia were asking for trouble in the channels, especially with two attacking full-backs. Cristian Zapata seems the obvious option but his club career has stalled and Pekerman isn’t a big fan, so Carles Valdes will play instead.
In goal, David Ospina had a good season for a poor Nice side. Back-up Faryd Mondragon is, amazingly, a survivor of World Cup 1994 and would become the World Cup’s oldest ever player, although he’s unlikely to be used.
Colombia will attempt to keep possession and will probably press more intensely than the majority of sides, although this could put the centre-backs – particularly Yepes – in danger if forced to defend too high up. Indeed, a related concern is the fact Colombia leave too much space between the lines, which might be more of a problem with a less secure midfield than Pekerman intended.
Conclusion
Colombia are highly unpredictable, partly because it’s difficult to predict how they’ll play in the final third, but also because there are question marks about the defence, especially against teams that excel at attacking transitions. Colombia could be exposed in the channels.
Colombia will probably produce at least one excellent performance, and individuals could shine – Cuadrado is the best bet – but there are too many question marks about the backbone of the side.
Quick guide
Coach: Jose Pekerman, former Argentina coach arguably most famous for taking off Riquelme in the quarter-final of 2006
Formation: 4-2-2-2 is their natural shape, though it could be 4-2-3-1, or even a back three
Key player: Cuadrado provides the width
Strength: Great options upfront
Weakness: Questionable defensively
Key tactical question: How many strikers does Pekerman play?
Though this side isn’t perfect, they should top a group where they a level above the other teams. Even without Falcao they offer a big threat to opposition and can vary their play impressively. They tend to slow the pace down and keep the ball before springing quick attacks through Rodriguez. This should work perfectly against the likes of Greece and Ivory Coast, who will concede possession. Even against Japan, Colombia have the ability to sit back and break against a pretty weak defence. I fully expect Colombia to be one of the few sides to have a 100% record in the group stage.
Going into the next round however they will face a tricky tie against either England, Italy or Uruguay. These will be much more balanced ties and I am doubtful of Colombia’s progress past this stage. Against all three teams they will face top class forwards who will likely expose their weaknesses at the back as ZM suggested.
While this may not be the appropriate page for this comment for it has nothing to do with the Colombian team, I do think Pekerman is unfairly blamed [I too did that in 2006]for taking off Riquelme in the 2006 QF. I recently watched the whole game on youtube twice and it was clear that Roman was exhausted by the 52-55 minutes mark and the game had completely passed by him for the 5-6 minutes before his substitution. Had Abbodanzieri not been injured, perhaps Pekerman would have had the chance to introduce a more attacking substitution in Messi/Aimar.
While you’re probably right that Riquelme was shot, it’s not unheard of for Riquelme to spend a fair amount of time walking around the field
Pekerman might be better of with Falcaobeing injured, as he doesn’t suit (and never really flourished) in this possession-based system. My only disappointment is the exclusion of Macnelly Torres, probably because he lost a touch or two playing in the Middle-East.
The team will function better now, in my opinion, though the lack of central midfield creativity and central defence pace is worrying. Having seen Sanchez play in Elche this season, he does have a bit of David Luiz in him, with those Maradona-esque runs that can expose his team. Aguilar is reliable, not flashy and does everything right, but lacks the element of surprise.
I want James Rodriguez to shine this year. So a talented and intelligent player
Correction: Luis Perea is one of the quickest mid-30’s I’ve ever seen. At his prime, one of the quickest centre backs ever.
PS: The highly-rated Eder Balanta played as a central midfielder in the friendly against Jordan. It isn’t an unfamiliar role for him. He has filled that position many times in his youth. I wouldn’t be surprised if Pekerman gives him a go.