Celtic 0-3 Juventus: Celtic cause problems in the first half, but Juve’s finishing far superior
The starting line-ups - Celtic's front three was fluid
There was much to admire about Celtic’s performance, but they couldn’t sustain their early effort.
Neil Lennon decided to use Efe Ambrose at the back, despite his participation in Nigeria’s 1-0 Africa Cup of Nations win on Sunday evening. Upfront, Lennon used three attackers – Kris Commons, James Forrest and Gary Hooper.
Antonio Conte is still without Giorgio Chiellini, so Martin Caceres was on the left of defence, and Federico Peluso was the left-wing-back. Alessandro Matri’s good run of form saw him get another start upfront.
An odd match – for spells in the first half Juventus looked genuinely rattled, and yet they had already gone 1-0 up with Matri’s early goal. Celtic’s first-half performance depended on energy and brave pressing, which resulted in tiredness late on.
Formations
Lennon used a strategy that a few Serie A sides have tried this season against Juve – including Inter, when Andrea Stramaccioni inflicted Conte’s first league defeat as Juve coach. That was to play three out-and-out forwards, but ask one of them to drop onto Andrea Pirlo when Juventus had possession. Pirlo is clearly Juventus’ key player and requires significant attention despite his deep positioning, but by using one of the three attackers as his ‘marker’, it allows that player to spin in behind when his side win the ball, meaning Juve are defending three-against-three, rather than having a spare man at the back.
In that sense, Celtic almost played two different formations. A 4-3-3 with the ball, a 4-3-1-2ish shape when Juve had possession. It meant dominance of the midfield zone (with three additional midfielders outnumbering Claudio Marchisio and Arturo Vidal) and a decent situation on the flanks, full-back against wing-back – although this relied on the rest of the side dominating possession, and forcing Juve’s wing-backs towards their own goal.
Juve attack 2 v 2
However, Celtic’s problem was that by matching Juve elsewhere and negating their opponents’ spare man at the back, Celtic had to play two-against-two at the back themselves. This wasn’t necessarily a problem – except it was, by virtue of poor performances from the centre-backs. The first goal was a disaster – Matri spun in behind Ambrose easily to finish – but equally problematic was the positioning of the left-sided centre-back, Kelvin Wilson, who wasn’t remotely in a good covering position.
A feature of Celtic’s defensive play was how tightly the centre-backs stuck to the strikers, treating them as individual battles. Celtic’s defence wouldn’t have conceded that goal had they been against Matri alone – Wilson would have instinctively understood he was supposed to cover in behind. Nor would Celtic have conceded that goal if they were three-against-two at the back, because the sweeper would have cleaned up.
Adapting to playing against two strikers (and Juve’s unusual 3-5-2 formation allows them to play two ‘proper’ strikers, not one always forced to drop deep and link play) is a tricky situation with so many sides playing one upfront, and in a subtle way, the numbers game backfired on Celtic for that goal. There were also other dangerous situations later in the half, when Pirlo got more freedom and knocked the ball in behind the defence with typical precision.
Celtic pressure
But make no mistake – in the opening half hour Celtic put Juventus under considerable pressure, with the Italian champions’ backline consistently forced into crucial headed clearances. The home side’s pressing meant Juve couldn’t get into any passing rhythm, and Celtic dominated in terms of both possession and territory. That forced Juve’s wing-backs towards their own goal, providing extra numbers for their deep, penalty box defending, which in turned allowed Mikael Lustig and Emilio Izaguirre forward to stretch the play and cross the ball.
In particular, Celtic were dominant down the left. Whereas right-sided Scott Brown charged forward energetically, Charlie Mulgrew played a more intelligent role, forming a nice triangle with Izaguirre and Forrest – who, in the opening stages, played to the left of the three Celtic forwards, and also as the deepest. Izaguirre’s twelve crosses were more than Juventus managed as a team.
Another problem for Juventus was their lack of a cohesive pressing system in the early stages. Whereas sometimes Victor Wanyama motored forward to shut down Pirlo at transitions, Pirlo was more reluctant to come up the pitch to do the reverse, while Arturo Vidal and Claudio Marchisio had their own responsibilities either side. Pirlo’s defensive role wasn’t clear, and in the early stages Celtic got too much time to shoot from just outside the penalty box; Wanyama had a long-range drive after a minute, then another after five. Commons had a couple of chances from a similar position when he dropped away from the centre-backs – in particular, a drilled shot that was right down Gigi Buffon’s throat. None of these were golden chances, but they were all significant enough to worry Juve.
And then there was the set-piece threat. Celtic’s corners prompted some almighty wrestling matches in the penalty box, but more significant were two free headers – Wanyama’s just before half-time, Ambrose’s after an hour. Poor finishing kept Juve’s clean sheet intact.
Juve take control
Conte seemed to ask Vucinic to play a deeper role in the second half – closer to Wanyama, which meant Celtic’s midfield dominance was less obvious. At the other side of the midfield zone, Pirlo was now getting more time on the ball, as Celtic’s forwards struggled to get back and pick him up (if we go back to Stramaccioni’s slightly fortunate but nevertheless noteworthy strategy earlier in the season, this was the point where he introduced a forward-playing midfield destroyer, Fredy Guarin, in place of a forward to maintain the pressure). Removing Commons, the man most frequently picking up Pirlo in the first half, for the youngster Tony Watt, was Lennon’s first tactical switch.
But that was a microcosm of Celtic’s problem – tiredness. Their pressing wasn’t as intense, and when given time on the ball, Juve’s raw quality shone through. The final 20 minutes was a reminder of the sheer difference in quality between the sides (none of the Celtic players would get into the Juventus side – Izaguirre would probably be the closest) and the individual performances were crucial at both ends. Juve’s centre-backs are all extremely capable and Celtic’s finishing was wasteful, Celtic’s defending for the goals was terrible, and Juve’s finishing was ruthless.
Marchisio scored a fine goal following the type of run he continually makes – in behind the centre-backs when they’re pulled out of position by the two strikers, something particularly obvious at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season. Interestingly, after this game Conte said that “Matri contributed to a fine goal [Marchisio's], it came from a situation we had practiced many times in training.” Training ground preparation was also cited for the equaliser at Stamford Bridge, that also involved pulling defenders out of position then attacking the space.
Juve’s third goal came after Matri was replaced by midfielder Paul Pogba, as Juve’s dominance became so complete that Vucunic didn’t even need a partner to score goals. Juve slowed the tempo down to good effect in the final few minutes.
Conclusion
Tactically, Celtic did pretty much everything that could be asked of them – they pressed Pirlo early on, dominated the midfield against one of the best trios in Europe, and created half-chances from range, and clear chances from set-pieces. The opening goal was the killer – it meant that Celtic had to keep pushing to get back in the tie. It’s all hypothetical, of course, but had Wilson covered better for the first goal, and Wanyama or Ambrose buried their header, Celtic probably wouldn’t have looked quite so lame in the final stages as they would have been able to sit deeper.
For Juventus this was a relatively underwhelming performance, but an excellent result considering Celtic’s record at home in European competition. They took too long to get going here, but Conte probably knew his side would come good after Celtic’s pressing dropped – Vidal and Marchisio might not have contributed much in the early stages, but few sides possesses two such energetic, vertical and technically gifted midfielders. They could do with Chiellini back to help defend set-pieces, though.
(The other tie – PSG v Valencia – will be covered in the second leg!)
Celtic 0-3 Juventus: Celtic cause problems in the first half, but Juve’s finishing far superior
Juve’s strikers are out of form today.
They don’t do what they normally do —-> missing chances.
Juventus, had a great result because, Ambrose was horrible since he played in the AFCON final just two days ago, Foster had a poor match in goal and Celtic didn’t have much quality upfront. But, if Juve plays like that in the next round they will be eliminated. While the backline was solid I have never seen Pirlo and Vidal give the ball away so much. A team with more quality would have punished them.
wonderful analysis, especially the part about the 3 striker-strategy and it’s offsets in other places.
quite unfortunate for celtic, but to be honest, buffon probably would have saved all 3 goals (or reacted in a way that prevented the situation from becoming that dangerous).
i think if you play 2v2 at the back you also could alter the behaviour of the goalkeeper in certain situations, the first goal being one for example. a defense isn’t jsut the defenders, but als the gk, and, even organisation duties aside, goalkeeper play is altered no often enough for my liking
That’s an interesting point on the goalkeeper…
Good point about the Keeper rule.
there should be more sports journalists like you in scotland (i know your not a scottish journalist but i really with you were!). you actually concentrate on the raw football, and not making up pish all the time, just look at the daily record to know what i’m on about. this is a really good analysis of the match. im a celtic fan and i am so disappointed in the result, but we did deserve so much more. the early goal was so crucial, it completely changed our game plan, we have been used to taking the lead in nearly every group game we played (and the qualifiers). i knew before the game that if we conceded at all then we wouldnt get through, but conceding before even getting a chance to score was heart breaking, i knew there was no way back, celtic cant even chase the game in the spl let alone in europe, we’re not used to it…celtic still make me proud, i just hope it wont be long til we’re back in this position again, it would break my heart if we dont
Thanks! Yes, the early goal really was a killer. It was a shame in many ways, because at 0-0 the tension surely would have increased and put Juve under even greater pressure…
Even though tehy were down 1-0 Celtic Pressed Juventus Roughly, until the last 15 minutes of the first half their pressing decreased significantly as we saw pirlo gettin’ the ball from buffon playing few passes after getting rid of 1 or 2 players who Pressed him in that zone, then attempting a long range passe which prove that celtic’s pressing declined by the end of the first half until the whole team collapsed due to tiredness.
You really are a biased cunnt.You make out Juve only won because they finished their chances and Celtic didn’t yet Celtic only had 1 real chance.
I am glad your site is going down the drain,your xenophobic attitude and shameless biasness deserves it.
Odd one – I attributed Juve’s win to (a) the defending 2 v 2 (b) the drop in pressing and (c) finishing chances. I don’t see how you can ignore (c), it was a decisive feature of the game.
You’ve said literally the same thing on every comment you’ve made over a period of more than one year. I’ve said it before, but you may as well just not visit the site!
It was apparently “going down the drain” a year ago, according to your comments. It must be somewhere back in the water cycle by now. In the clouds, perhaps? Who knows.
Don’t waste your time, Michael.
Don’t feed the trolls ZM! Everyone knows that this is the best website around for tactical analysis in the English language. Keep up the good work!
Well said.
OMG GET THE HELL OUT OF HERE you uncivilized fool. Go to goal.com where you can behave like this with thousands of other kids. Don’t ruin this experience for the rest of us who want to discuss in a civil manner.
ZM can’t you ban his IP or something?
TY
first off:
ABSOLUTELY ABYSMAL
watching this game was just awful, both as a fan of the game and as a Celtic fan
some things i took away from the game besides this though:
-celtic players fouling cynically
-italian players wrestling celtic players at will, and with the referee blatantly ignoring it after giving yellows (where in the world is an orange card when you need one?)
-why were celtic pumping cross in? and against 3 center backs? it is obvious that hooper at 5 ft 9 is NOT going to give problems with his headers and is much better with the ball sent in to his feet! PATIENCE for heavens sake is all that was needed
-why would you push both fullbacks forward AND wanyama forward leaving nobody to cover when the two juventus forwards are OBVIOUSLY going to hit the channels?
-why didn’t lennon and his technical staff realize that the juventus strategy is so obvious? if people here on the internet can see these problems why dont they see that you need extra people in defense, you shouldn’t exhaust yourself on pressing leaving you open in the final bits, playing a player who had just come back off the plane is insane, etc etc
i turned off the game at the 78th minute or so because i was so disgusted, obviously i did not miss anything that was unpredictable (even the watt substitution, and kayal for brown was obvious but WAY too late to affect anything)
at least we made it this far though, not so excited for the away leg but i suppose ill watch it pending “celtic spirit” or something
I think lennon just got greedy, juventus can handle pressure they can’t handle counter attacks and as you pointed the vulnerability on the chanels marchisio gets upfront allowing vucinic to provide some width and there goes defensive line, a 2 men defensive line is gone once it’s stretched but a good display from the bhoys given the fact that they played against a superior side and maybe counter attackin them was the best option or mirror-ing their 3 defenders men formation
Man,
You are overreacting a bit.
First as a fan you must realize that your team there is no needed quality to compete with Juventus.Why???
The one and only thing which Celtic had in that game was wish,wish,wish, but You better realize that only with that it’s not gonna happen.
Yes, Juve is not yet ready to compete with heavyweights 4 team but it’s still far better than Celtic in every aspect of the game, except WISH for that time.
Second, No way to reach something with CROSSING the ball constantly from the flanks. If Celtic plays like this always, then It will get more and more results like last night’s one because of his inability to produce tactical flexibility – in few words PREDICTABLE SIDE!
At last, You have to accept that lesson calmly and to hope Lennon’s mouth be more quite. This guy talks more than thinks more – bad for a coach who jump as a child instead of reacting smartly. You must accept the fact that no matter how good your team pressing, JUVENTUS OUTPLAYED CELTIC TACTICALLY FOR THE ENTIRE GAME.Juve knew what Celtic was gonna offer so just sit and wait for their chances, especially at the final stage of the game.
don’t be upset , look from the bright side – you’ve beaten Barca this year. Not bad at all.
Good luck.
correct comment i did the same . i mean lennon was stupid i mean celtic with really did not had any clue as to what they had to do and simply just got the ball wide and cross . but when you cross only when you dominate the centre make the opponent think that you can hurt them through the centre which make them compact so that there is space on the wings for the played to deliver a good cross . secondly even though michael you might had lauded celtic for their crosses but kev was right those crosses never troubled juve’s centre backs. secondly the crosses were made from the 18 yard . celtic did not tried to take the ball forward or become more penetrative . most importantly the celtic middle line did not show any creativity with ball nor there was any good movement from the front three to help the middle line to create space so that they could move forward or do something with the ball . talking of crosses for the whole 78 min that i saw the game where was not a single low cross that was attempted by the celtic team . secondly all the three celtic forward were lining up in one line there was not any good movement or something different from the celtic’s forward to confuse the juve’s back line . secondly if you had noticed juve’s middle line were not coming that deep i mean there was space between the mid and back line to explore had cetic showed some creativity . most importantly not only was celtic’s approach about the game ( in the offensive sense ) nor was there positioning good . secondly celtic players were spending were spending too much time on the ball it might of the fact because they just didnt know what to do next and for it the blame goes on lennon you need to have a plan as to what are we going do when we have the ball and not pass wide and cross which too were never great . there was not a pivot for wide players who would help them in their movement i mean lennon disappointed me on several aspects last night .
i am perplexed at how lennon could watch and not try something when things were not going the way he had planned . didnt he had a plan b . his midfield lacked imagination and for it he has to be squarely blamed . how many times his team gave the ball away or in tennis words say make unforced errors . we in india stay awake till 3 in the morning so that we can watch a good game but yesterday it was not worth it .
It’s nearly impossible reading your posts,please learn grammar,learn how to use capital letters and learn how to write in paragraphs.
Nailed the match review for me.. Young and at times nieve (sp) Celtic side will learn a lot from tonight! Here that the referee was seen leaving the ground getting a lift in the Juve bus
Disagree with the above sentiment – I thought the match was gripping viewing if not spectacular, and I though Celtic were anything but naive in their play.
Celtic huffed and puffed and did all they could, they had everything but the goal to coin a phrase, but it was evident that Juve had the goods to punish them if they got the chance, as they did Chelsea. Ultimately they were clinical in this, but 3-0 was a pretty harsh reflection on the match.
Not a chance of Celtic winning the away leg now though.
>Disagree with the above sentiment – I thought the match was gripping viewing if not spectacular, and I though Celtic were anything but naive in their play.
Let me clarify, i thought tactically the game was abysmal and was totally disgusted at the tactical mistakes lennon made that to me were obvious
the actual contest was actually pretty good, and perhaps i am overreacting…okay lets say that indeed i AM over reacting- it just bothers me to see things like hoofball to small poachers when it just does not work
>Celtic huffed and puffed and did all they could, they had everything but the goal to coin a phrase, but it was evident that Juve had the goods to punish them if they got the chance, as they did Chelsea. Ultimately they were clinical in this, but 3-0 was a pretty harsh reflection on the match.
i would say it was not evident actually, if celtic had gone out with 3 at the back (mulgrew, wilson, lustig at the back has been commonly used this season) would have been much easier on the defense and juventus would have struggled to create chances like the passes into space that they got
>Not a chance of Celtic winning the away leg now though.
certainly possible if celtic put out a proper team, particularly a team with a target man like samaras who would enjoy the space in between fullback and outside center back (lichsteiner would NOT enjoy such an encounter)
Are you seriously expecting Celtic to play like Barcelona? Tiki-taka past the likes of Pirlo, Marchisio and Vidal? That’s naive. They beat Barcelona by using what they were good in – physical ability.
It’s no surprise they’d do the same, and they had three forwards up against 3 defenders. It’d be pretty easy to snatch the ball, especially the more crosses you ping towards them.
And before you say that the CDs could just easily clear the ball away by heading it, low crosses would give players like Hooper the ball at their feet. Your recommended style – patience – would only give Juventus the chance to assert themselves in the game, and likely a higher margin of defeat would have been obtained.
Lichtsteiner copes really well in physical contests, however he struggles when he comes up against a very technically gifted player, that would constantly take him on and challange him, and push him back into his own half since this makes him frustrated, makes him lose focus and as such he starts to make a lot of mistakes
this was how we won 5 derbies in a row, we simply placed Vucinic on top of him, and focused most of our play down the left flank in order to overload him and frustrate him into make a lot of simple errors
oh and one more thing…
am i wrong in thinking that its crazy that so many footballers seem to know nothing about football? in this case i am referring to Neil Lennon
Michael Cox doesn’t think Lennon knows nothing: “Celtic did pretty much everything that could be asked of them.” And if you read his report on the Barca game you’ll see he praises Lennon for getting the tactics right – against the best team in the world.
You argued above that Celtic should have played Samaras – Samaras was injured. And you argued that we should have played 3 at the back – Lennon tested three at the back repeatedly over the last two months and it repeatedly failed. If it’s failing against Hibs it would get destroyed against Juventus.
Every manager makes mistakes. Lennon is young and learns quickly. He’s taken an under-resourced team to the last 16 of the Champions league. With a fit Samaras, a match-fit Foster and a referee willing to stamp-down on Juventus’ tactics to nullify Celtic’s set-pieces, we might have won this.
You made some good points in your first post but you are way over-reacting
Celtic didn’t create a single decent chance, wasn’t a threat at all despite dominating possession. They couldn’t score a goal from open play if the game lasted 200 minutes and Juve managed to score three.
How you can then blame the ref for anything is just bizarre. Celtic were an incredibly poor side both technically and tactically. What they had was fighting spirit and that was truly admirable. But it’s not enough to win every game.
Most footballers don’t know anything about football. The same thing goes for NFL as well. You just have to look at the defensive backline they selected for FIFPro World XI as evidence.
Not wrong. How many ex-player manger flops are there? It’s all about game intelligence now. Lump and run football is a thing of the past. That’s why the Britsh sides just don’t do well in Europe.
tictactic, the celtic equivalent of ZM, had this to say:
“Gone from a really close contest edged arguably by the ref, to totally outclassed by a clever team. Can’t fault effort though.”
direct quote from his twitter
sums it up nicely i think
they were unlucky to be fair. should have had a penalty for lichtsteiner on hooper, he was hauling him down, why is that not a penalty? took the game to juve, they were just wasteful,and that was the quality difference, juve took their chances, celtic didn’t. celtic dominated pretty much the entire first, and up till the 2nd goal on 73 minutes, the whole second half.
unlucky in my opinion.
Thoughts on Juve winning the CL? Might be a bit premature, but this team plays with confidence, quickly switching point of attack and when Chiellini is back they could shore up some sloppy headers.
Yes, that was exactly what I was thinking about in the aftermath of this game. Juve have what it takes to go all the way but there are a number of teams they could lose to as well.
For instance, I think they’d be able to knock out Man United/Real Madrid but I can’t see them getting the better of Barcelona or Bayern Munich. It all comes down to the performance on that day and of course that little bit of luck.
they also missed Asamoah <– a machine down the left.
Although Peluso did well providing long diagonal passes to the forward-two, bit lucky on that first goal assist.
Frankly, I have to say that Celtic were pretty stereotypically British- hard-working and hard-nosed, but ultimately naive. They dominated for 75 minutes but only created two real chances because of a lack of creativity in the final third, and wasted most of their energy ball-chasing and complaining about blocking and little pushes and shoves that were completely inconsequential in the long run. I was frankly quite bemused by how affronted the commentators on ITV were by Lichtsteiner, I found out today that in Britain it isn’t okay to block someone on a corner kick, but it’s okay to slide in two-footed on Pirlo.
And Juve were stereotypically Italian in all but one regard, that they actually put the game away at the end, which is un-Italian. They were shrewd in letting Celtic wear themselves out while waiting to counter, and played those stereotypically Italian mind games with Celtic, who let themselves become distracted by it, thus making said tactics successful.
If only Samaras was playing, score would have been the other way around
On celtics formation, at times I thought it was 4321 with Hooper as the one(number 9)
I would be curious to see how a 4321 would stack up vs Juves 352. Perharps Ancelloti and Ibra’s PSG should meet Juventus
Good analysis as usual Michael
I thought Celtics was superior for long period of time, really brave in their pressing and they won almost all 50-50 ball. Kept saying too myself that they have to score because that pressing will tired them in the end of the game.
Lich was anonymous almost the entire game where peluso had more space on the left but he could not capitalize because clearly Peluso is more of a left back than a left wing back.
Some fans will complain about cooper vs lichteiner. Tbh I did not see anything wrong. Both of them did not try to play the ball. Cooper was trying to pin down Buffon and Lich was protecting his GK.
Harsh performance from the celtic backline.. Juve had a lucky game ever in away match..this could be a restructure the whole system in Celtic. lennon should find another option as a plan B..
Vidal said that giving more space to Celtic was Juve’s tactics.I am sure that the first goal was also trained because Celtic had only 2 deffenders and with one long pass behind their back-they seemed to have problem.
Tactically Juve outclassed Celtic.You can’t just run..you have to think also!
It seemed like Juve was happy with they way things are going on. Even if they hadn’t score the goal, they would play like that. And then, when Celtic tired, they engage and scored.
Celtic put a very good performance, but they simply lack quality. I think that they are better team when defending and attacking on counter.
But they were brave, that’s a fact.
2nd goal from Marchisio is great. Pass, run, receive, shoot
But Juve needs to get better with getting out of pressing, if they would play like this against a better side.. hmm, i think that they would be in great danger.
Juventus always looked the better side, able to cut through celtic with one touch passing when they got forward. As soon as juventus started getting midfield runners getting forward you knew celtic would struggle to track them.
Celtic pressed extremely well but arguably needed to drop back yo ensure a clean sheet, as a high line always seemed very risky. They also lacked a target for their crosses, their main route of attack, so also looked rather blunt in attack.
Well, I thought it was an interesting game. Celtic surprisingly pushed forward right from the off compared to the conservative approach they took against Barcelona and Benfica.
I thought they performed admirably in the first half pressing high up and getting bodies into the box. However, crossing into the box from anywhere on the pitch at every given opportunity, and expecting the relatively short forward line of Hooper, Forrest and Commons to get the better of towers like Bonucci and Barzagli was a very naive approach.
But like ZM mentioned above, the sheer difference in quality was very evident in the second half. I think Juve were deserved winners and a 3-0 scoreline does NOT flatter them because, they pretty much outsmarted Celtic in every department.
Neil Lennon comes out and says the referee was “Pro- Juventus” which I think is really a silly statement, considering the leniency towards Celtic’s cynical challenges in the first half. You get to see the shirt pulling in every league and the Italians have been doing that since the 50’s and as we saw, it is still very effective. The ref had a good and more importantly, an unbiased game.
To end on a positive not, it was an entertaining game and the atmosphere at Parkhead is always fantastic. Celtic should be proud to have made it this far (although they were a tad lucky to edge ahead of Benfica in the group stage). But at this stage of the competition, its all about quality. Luck can only take you so far despite what Chelsea managed to pull off last time out.
Now on to Real Madrid – Manchester United!
excell stuff on the celtic formation…couldn’t find any info i could trust last night..some saying it was 4-1-4-1…some had scott brown as r wing/ r mid…which didn’t seem right to me…& others had mulgrew in a 3 man defence !??!?!
Congrats on another typically great article! Now, to answer the person who asked about this earlier:
Last year after I saw the way Juventus played in a couple of derbies (two against Milan, one against Napoli I think it was) I was very impressed with their organisation and mental strength and I made a long-term prediction that they would at least (I emphasize the ‘at least’ part) play one UEFA Champions League final somewhere in the next 5 years, with more or less this group of players.
They have the spirit, the talent, the speed and the organisation – but I definitely think they need Chiellini. Do they have the experience? Do they have the precision to stave off powerful attacking threats such as those posed by Real and Barcelona? I’m not sure right now.
I had Italy winning the Euro after the group stages and even before the final, and that 4-0 drubbing was a harsh lesson for me and, I think, might be a psychological stumbling block if Juve have to play Real or Barca anywhere before the final (and even there). I think they feel like they can beat anyone right now, but they do feel inferior to the Spanish. That’s not to say they couldn’t overcome that… Anyway, a team like Bayern or Dortmund I think they can eliminate, for instance – won’t be easy, though.
What they need is for someone else to take out Barcelona before they have a chance to play them. It could easily happen. Real are better this season (I don’t place much weight on results against weaker teams, so the La Liga points difference doesn’t bother me much at all), as they were last season, in my opinion, and there are some other teams that might give them a hard time (if I have to give an example, I’ll say Dortmund).Even Milan they’re not guaranteed to get by. Defensively they (Barcelona) don’t look good at all right now.
So yeah, I would say Juve is definitely in the discussion for the Champions League trophy this season, but they need a bit of luck. Italian teams generally do quite often get lucky and avoid the favorites before the semifinals and final, so it could happen. But it’s probably not THE favorite. If I had to pick just one frontrunner, I’d still say either Real or Barca, even with the obvious rise in quality of the German teams. But it’s much, much closer than in recent years.
I’m curious: what does ZM think about the favorites for this year’s UCL. Just a quick thought is what I’m looking for, if you’re still reading the comments in this thread… I’ve noticed you generally stay away from that kind of prediction, which is normal for an analyst, but I’m really curious and I’m not the kind of person who would hold it against you if you got it wrong or anything. I get plenty of (not obvious) predictions wrong (probably about as many as I get right) and I don’t think it means anything. It’s hard to get it right all the time, no matter how inspired/knowledgeable you are. There are just too many factors and too many unpredictable outcomes that can significantly alter the initial parameters.
Nice Post.
+1 I too would like to know ZM’s predictions.
Barcelona are having a super season so far and it all seems really promising for cules like me. However, there are so many contenders this year compared to recent memory that it makes for a very interesting road to the final. Bayern, for instance look very dangerous.
My favourites in order of winning.
1.Barcelona
2.Bayern
3.Winner of Real Madrid-Manchester United
4.Juventus
5.Winner of Borussia Dortmund-Shakhtar Donetsk
Personally I think the winner of Shakhtar/Dortmund will knock out one of the giants in the quarter final.
This season was the best ever Champions League group stage in my opinion. Hopefully it follows up with the best ever Knockout stage as well!
Absolutely, I too think that Bayern look stronger than in any of the seasons since van Gaal left. Their speed and creativity have improved, but I’m still not entirely convinced. I think that Juventus can knock them out if they meet. Bayern would have a lot of trouble playing against Juventus’ style. Dortmund have more or less the same style as Juve and they’ve been dominating Bayern pretty heavily in recent years. And Juve are also stronger than Bayern mentally, in my opinion. I maintain that the real problem for them are the Spanish sides.
As for Barcelona, as long as they have Messi, Iniesta and Xavi, they’ll always be among the big favorites. Still, this season to me they’ve looked even less secure at the back than last year.
After seeing Real vs. Manchester United tonight, I am now pretty sure United isn’t a threat for the title. They’re too easy to break and too easily put under pressure. Real are still having trouble scoring, though, and they’ll have to play a very good game indeed in England, if they’re to go through. United will be much stronger at Old Trafford.
It’s hard to predict how Dortmund are going to fare. I’ve seen quite a lot of their games this season and I’m still not sure how well they’d do in a super-tense, decisive second leg.
If your going to press, the defence needs to be resolute when pushing high. They paid the price for that, as well as big lack of cutting edge in the last third. Doesn’t take a genius, regardless of what the player says, to know the risks in playing Ambrose, considering where he was a few days ago. Even without hindsight, it was reckless decision to make. Didn’t seem like Lennon had any answers prepared for when Celtic were getting tired from pressing Juve.
Surprised at how ineffective Juve were at taking the sting out of Celtic’s pressing as Juve gave up possession too much but at least, Juve were clinical and for that, they deserve credit. Juve’s central midfield need to show more control against better opposition in CL, if they are to progress, instead of constantly relying on the counter attack as for only so long can the defence handle the pressure. Opponents will always target Pirlo, so the other two need to show some composure and help with the possession much better in CL. Reminded me a bit of Man United against Southampton in the second half, Juve did. Take the game to them and cracks will appear, although like United, they possess a danger on the counter attack. Take out Carrick, Man United find it very hard to keep the ball (For e.g. barely kept the ball before Carrick came on against Everton. Rodgers in the second half targeted him and Liverpool ended up playing better.). It appears to be the same with Juve and Pirlo. Marchisio and Vidal need to show more than just their box-to-box engines, they need to keep the ball at times. Can’t always rely on the opponents getting tired like last night.
When I heard that one of the Celtic central defenders had played in the African finals two days beforehand, and had therefore been on pflights for half a day to get back, I assumed that Celtic must have a very thin squad: is that right? Certainly the poor chap had a stinker.
Hello Michael,
I’m an avid follower of this blog and I generally agree with you on most of the tactical analysis of your games but today I have to disagree with your assessment of the game. I don’t think that Juventus were outplayed in ANY portion of the match since I firmly believe that the game went exactly as Conte planned. Perhaps not the early goal; however, the way Celtic’s two wing back’s were pushing up considerably was always going to leave Ambrose and Wilson exposed to the kind of ball that put Matri through on goal. Juventus were deliberately inviting the pressure and extremely high energy pressing knowing that with their defensive shape intact they could defend virtually anything that Celtic threw at them. Apart from the Ambrose header every shot on target by Celtic was from outside the area and beating Buffon means you have to invent the kind of goal the Oscar scored at Stamford bridge. Juventus’ ability to defend extremely efficiently has already been demonstrated against Shaktar when they beat them in the last game of the group stage so it’s hardly surprising that knowing how Celtic tries to play the first half at an extremely high tempo they would invite the pressure and them dominate the second half. Celtic had 3 shots in the second half compared to 15 in the first… Did Buffon have any difficult saves to make? Did he even have to dive once in the entire game?
Juventus’s game plan to break by balls in behind Celtic’s wing backs was evident from the offside statistic were in trying to time their runs in behind the defense the Juve forwards were caught offside. Juventus’ 7 to Celtic’s 0 but this statistic also demonstrates that Juventus were always playing with men between the ball and their goal meaning the Celtic never got in behind Barzagli, Bonucci, and Caceres. Celtic was never really a threat to Buffon’s goal because the crosses were always the same predictable ball. A much more dangerous variety of crosses might have helped Celtic including maybe some balls being played into the area from the goal line but Juventus were never going to allow that. See PSG’s second goal yesterday where Lucas’s cutback cross was turned in by a mediocre strike from Pastore. Lucas was in such a dangerous position and the pass was good enough that even the bad shot from Pastore ended up in the net.
Celtic were naive and especially Neil Lennon who NEVER should have played Ambrose, why do you think Conte didn’t play Asamoah even when he arrived a whole day earlier than Ambrose? Celtic should have understood what kind of trap Juventus created and remembered that it was a two match tie and not gassed themselves so completely in the first half. Down a goal going to Turin would have meant hope for Celtic, instead they face the Juventus Stadium already down 3 goals.
And to the people in the comments who keep saying that Samaras would have changed the game, I agree, but so would Chiellini and Asamoah.