Spain v France preview
Possible starting line-ups
Spain have never beaten France in a competitive fixture – can they put that record straight tonight?
Spain approach
Spain are clearly the favourites here, and as the side less likely to change their shape or spring a tactical surprise, it makes sense to consider them first.
Vicente del Bosque hinted yesterday that he’d consider changing his side slightly, and while it’s almost unthinkable that he’d change the ‘first’ nine players (ie Iker Casillas through to Andres Iniesta), the other two positions, occupied by David Silva and Fernando Torres, are less secure.
Torres remains the favourite to start, despite competition from Fernando Llorente and Alvaro Negredo. There’s certainly an argument that Llorente would be better suited to this game, to test the aerial ability of the French centre-backs, and one could also argue that Negredo is now better at playing Torres’ old game than the Torres of 2012. Del Bosque places loyalty and familiarity before tactical concerns, though, and seems more likely to stick with the Chelsea striker.
The other (slight) issue is Cesc Fabregas. Without wanting to go over old ground, he brings Spain more verticality, and having scored two goals already despite starting only once, he must be in del Bosque’s thoughts. He could start in a right-ish position in place of Silva, or del Bosque could even return to the false nine system we saw against Italy…but this might be overcomplicating things, as del Bosque will probably leave the side unchanged.
France selection
Laurent Blanc will have to make at least one change from the defeat to Sweden. Philippe Mexes is suspended, so Laurent Koscielny will replace him. This isn’t a huge blow – Koscielny’s been in better form than Mexes over the past year, and his style suits playing against Spain – he’s quick and reads the game well. Indeed, Koscielny is the only other recognised centre-back in the squad, and Blanc is one injury away from having to play Alou Diarra out of position at the back, because of his strange decision to name only three centre-backs in the squad. The concern isn’t about Koscielny’s ability, but about whether he has a relationship with Adil Rami.
That is a certain change, so it’s barely a debate. Instead, Blanc’s main selection dilemma is in the centre of midfield. Yohan Cabaye missed the Sweden game with a small injury, so Blanc fielded Yann M’Vila and Diarra together in a strong holding midfield pairing. Samir Nasri was ahead as the number ten in a 4-2-3-1.
France lost the game, of course, but a similar selection might be on the cards here. France need to pack that central midfield zone, the position where literally half Spain’s team likes to operate. Diarra on his own would be a risk – he likes to stick tight to opponents, and would be drawn out of position by one player (Silva?) and the resulting space would be exploited by another (Iniesta?).
Despite the Sweden result, it does make sense to play both Diarra and M’Vila. That doesn’t necessarily have to mean Cabaye misses out, though – he played well in France’s first two games, particularly when moving higher up the pitch. He might play at the head of the midfield trio, which in turn would push Samir Nasri into the front three, into the right-sided role he played against England on the opening day – when he was the key player.
In isolation, Blanc might prefer to play Nasri in midfield, but this seems the best solution – Cabaye in the centre and Nasri on the right is a better bet than Nasri in the centre and either Jeremy Menez or Hatem Ben Arfa on the right. Menez did well against Ukraine, but might not be the best player to track Jordi Alba’s runs.
Overall approach
That’s the most important selection decision, but France’s overall approach will decide the nature of the game. Spain are a known quantity, but France have the ability to vary their play. Generally they’ve focused upon ball retention so far in this competition, and while they certainly won’t dominate possession in this match, Blanc has to decide whether to compete in midfield, or defend deep and counter quickly.
The second approach is more natural when playing against Spain, but it remains to be seen whether France’s defence is good enough to withstand constant pressure, and they’d probably be relying as much on Spain’s lack of verticality as their own defensive strength.
Ribery v Arbeloa
They do have an obvious out-ball, though – Franck Ribery on the left. His battle with Alvaro Arbeloa will be the most interesting individual clash of the game. Arbeloa is probably Spain’s weak link – his attacking isn’t purposeful enough, his passing is too slow, and Xavi Hernandez keeps shouting at him, telling him to press quicker.
Ribery was involved in the key battle of the game against Ukraine, when Oleg Husiev kept running past him. Ribery didn’t track, Ukraine should have punished him by using Husiev on the overlap, but then Ribery was in a position to prompt counters and helped created the opening goal, when Husiev was out of position. Arbeloa will be more cautious than Husiev, but this zone of the pitch will be crucial.
It will also be important as Karim Benzema moves to that flank, looking to get the ball to feet and becoming the ‘wall’ for Ribery’s one-twos that enable him to storm towards goal. Gerard Pique’s marking of Benzema will be crucial, and Ramos might become the sweeper.
Spain are strong favourites, likely to keep the ball for long periods in the first half, then look to penetrate more after half-time. Blanc will have to come up with something clever to defeat the World Champions.
Betfair preview recommended bets
Arbeloa to be shown a card at 3.5
Draw/Spain in the Half Time/Full Time market at 4.9
“Menez did well against Ukraine, but might not be the best player to track Jordi Alba’s runs.”
Neither is Nasri, though. Unless France put Malouda on the right, I’m expecting Spain to get a lot of joy out of that left flank.
Great analysis as usual, well done Michael. This is the most exciting encounter in the knock-out stage. Spain’s lack of verticality as you point out is its biggest weakness, but something which is inherent in its setup for this tournament (much like fielding 6 midfielders in its first game!!). But if France have an off-day like against the Swedes, Spain will possibly have a goal-fest, whichever players they select etc. If the French can make it tight and compact, then most probably the introduction of a natural striker and winger will be key in Spain winning the game. Either way, Spain is more likely win.
your last point is very good ribery vs arbeloa and that is the zone where france needs to concentrate when they are on offense .on the offense i think france needs to thrust through one zone and try to exploit it . france has to win the first one on one anywhere on the field when the french press and then they can open the spaniards . although in the earlier matches although the other right backs went forward i dont think in this match arbeloa will venture too much forward as he is very slow . if france needs to exploit on offense then they need to get arbeloa vs ribery in a one on one contest and ribery should try win a foul or get arbeloa carded so that somebody will come and help which in turn will open up space on other flanks since spain defend with all their men . the best thing french needs to do is to win those exchanges on flank in a one on one battle and get some players carded which will put them on back foot. most importantly spend little time not like earlier matches where they spend too much time on the ball and slowed the game which suits spain .
another thing about spain is that they keep on doing these little niggling fouls to stop the flow of the game or get the ball out of bounce france has to move the ball quickly and keep the ball on the throw in because its easy to press and get possession back for the spaniards on the throw in.
one most important thing even on counter spain tries to press rather than get back and settle themselves in a shape and then press which can be exploited .
i defer with your observation that the spainards are favourite . mexes not playing is a boon in disguise as i had said earlier the front 3 of france have flair should combine and try to score . but i worry about diarra as his positional sense is very bad and most importantly his reading of the game is not great which can leave the back 2 exposed and most importantly i am worried about rami who looks flat footed and that is his zone which the spaiards will try to explore .
for spain i think vdb as he is called can put martinez in the back alongside pique and move ramos on the right to counter ribery’s threat and exploit that space if he doesnt track back and provide those darting late runs that he can make .
all and all the match is going to be a headache for the official as theatrics will be on full show and he needs to be careful .
While it being a key encounter in itself, I don’t think Arbeloa being Spain’s weak link can be exploited that much by Ribery. Arbeloa squared up really really well against Ribery when they went against each other in last season’s UCL, so much so that Bayern had to rely on playing through Robben on their right (Madrid’s left full back was the more attacking one).
Silva would probably be the real key to this match provided Spain needs moves to a 4-2-3-1 formation, making Torres test the new CB pairing and Silva playing as a 10.
Ribery destroyed Arbeloa during that match …
I still think France could win this match and reach the final.
Blanc recently said: “Croatia showed us the way to play against Spain”. And indeed they did, I thought the Spanish team was relatively exposed by Bilic’s tactics in that match. Spain could have conceded more than once had the Croats’ decision making in the final third and finishing been better.
And although France don’t have a player quite in the mould of Modric to quickly spread the ball around (perhaps Cabaye), they are better passers as a team and are also quicker on the wings.
France may well beat Spain if they play their cards right.
According to the French media, Laurent Blanc will be playing : Lloris – Réveillère, Rami, Koscielny, Clichy – M’vila, Cabaye, Malouda, Debuchy, Ribéry – Benzema.
Sounds like a 4-3-3 with Debuchy on the right wing and a Malouda – M’Vila – Cabaye midfield…
sounds like a 4-5-1, but why omit Nasri? Is he that undiciplined defensively?
If Blanc’s game plan is to stay compact and disciplined when Spain has the ball, and try to score by playing very quickly on the break (like most team do against Spain), the Nasri just doesn’t fit anywhere… He wouldn’t bring anything special in defense, and he always dwells too much on the ball, so he’d likely slow down the counter-attacks.
Michael what do you think about putting Ramos as right back to face Ribery,he is better at one to one than Arbeloa and played right back until last season for Spain and Real. Martinez instead as central defender – sweeper in order to control Benzema and Ribery cut ins.And if Alba will push forward , Nasri will have to track him back so he will be closer to his goal than Spain-he will be less an attacking threat for spanierds.
Cannot see Spain winning this tournament as they are not productive enough with their posession and their strikers are the weak link so either France or Germany will beat them imo.
Expect a cagey first 45 then watch out for Nasri as an impact sub tonight.
Spain have never beaten France in a competitive fixture, and they never will.
So, do you have the lottery numbers as well ?
Reveillere comes in. Diarra out. Either a 3-man defence or normal formation with Debuchy at right wing?
Debuchy started his career as a midfielder, so, he definitely will play on the right wing and Reveillere will replace him in defence. It looks like Blanc is afraid of Iniesta, so he wants to strengthen his right side.
BBC is reporting that Torres is being dropped in favor of Cesc…what do people think about playing the false-nine against France?
Spain is going to abuse France’s left flank all game long.
Debuchy and Rami have no symbiosis and Nasri works hard to track back but isn’t a great tackler. Alba and Iniesta will have a field day.
Of course, it might all come to nothing since they have no one to cross to and if M’Vila/Diarra close the channel for the through ball into the box, all that play on the left will be meaningless.
Oh wow, just as I wrote my last post, Blanc comes out with a suicidal starting 11.
Only 1 holding midfielder, Malouda starting, with Reveillere on Iniesta.
At least start Nasri if you’re going to play this grotesque 4-2-3-1 (with Debuchy likely staying back as much as possible).
Also Mathieu Valbuena instead of Debuchy- also very flexible and dynamic but a better passer and hence would clam the game down more given that this is what Blanc wants with this starting 11.
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‘tactics without the right mentality means nothing’ can be a vague angle of analysis but sums up this France side for me. An indisciplined side that would have put in the same heartless and disunited performance with different tactics too. Sure there were certain/possible issues with Blanc’s tactics in tonight’s game but I wonder how effective his tactics would have been if his team actually played like a team.
Agree with that.
In my opinion the game tonight shows the limitations of tactical discussion. If a team lacks heart and commitment and willingness to work together for the common good then talking about tactics is missing the reality.
Some may say that Spain made France look bad which is of course partly true. But even poor teams with poor players and poor tactics who are outclassed can be seen to be fighting for the cause. I did not see that tonight.
Tactics are important but many other aspects of football are vastly more important.
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