Germany v Greece preview
Potential starting line-ups
On paper, this is the most one-sided of the four quarter-finals. Germany qualified the most impressively of the eight quarter-finalists, while Greece squeezed through with just four points.
Team news
Greek coach Fernando Santos is without two players because of suspension. Giorgos Karagounis is absent from the centre of midfield, while left-back Jose Holebas is also unavailable, though might not have started anyway.
Jogi Löw doesn’t have such problems – in fact, he has Jerome Boateng back after a ban – but reports in today’s German newspapers suggest he’s set to make radical changes in the final third. Most importantly, it seems certain that Miroslav Klose will start instead of Mario Gomez upfront. On the flanks, Andre Schurrle is challenging Lukas Podolski for a starting place, while Marco Reus could play instead of Thomas Muller. It would be a surprise if Löw changed three of his front four, and probably unnecessary considering their 100% record so far.
Greek left / German right and midfield battle
A key area is the Greek left-back zone, the area where they’ve looked vulnerable throughout the tournament. Holebas being out of contention isn’t a significant blow, as Giorgios Tzavelas performed well there against Russia, but he’s likely to be faced with two players – either Muller or Reus, plus Mesut Ozil moving across to that side of the pitch. Tzavelas won’t receive much help from Giorgos Samaras, who will concentrate on marking Boateng, so it’s likely that Grigoris Makos will have to move across the pitch with Ozil.
Makos will worry about leaving the Greek midfield understaffed, and running into the same problems Holland encountered. The German midfield is highly flexible, of course, and though the runs of Sami Khedira and Bastian Schweinsteiger will worry Greece, they should be defending with three central midfielders at all times. Therefore, while the movement and unpredictability could catch them out, they shouldn’t be merely outnumbered, as Holland were.
Santos could format his midfield in two ways – play Kostas Katsouranis high up the pitch with two holders behind, or move Katsouranis deeper and play Giannis Maniatis as the highest midfielder. Maniatis is much more energetic – it’s a question of whether Santos wants that energy used in a purely defensive sense, or in a more ambitious manner.
Elsewhere
Those two battlezones – the Greek left-back area and the centre of midfield – seem the key areas to watch. But there should be some interesting, well-matched battles on the wings. Vasilis Torosidis will take on Podolski or Schurrle in a quick, energetic battle. Higher up the flank, Philipp Lahm will push back Dimitris Salpingidis, though needs to be wary of Salpingidis’ clever movement, both in behind the defence on the break, and into more central positions behind Schweinsteiger.
Boateng against Samaras is essentially a centre-back versus centre-forward battle in a wide zone. Boateng should try and push Samaras towards his own goal, as the Greek forward can be quite effective with his hold-up play in wide positions.
Klose?
But Löw’s apparent decision to play Klose ahead of Gomez will probably be the key feature. Löw is a huge fan of Klose, and many think he would have started this competition upfront were he not an injury doubt, but dropping Gomez after three goals in three games is a huge decision.
It seems that the choice is purely tactical, rather than because of fitness reasons. Klose is a more mobile player with clever movement and would allow Germany to change the positions of their front four more readily (his understanding with Ozil is particularly impressive). That is probably in Löw’s mind, and he wants to outwit the physical Greek centre-back duo with a nippy player, rather than play into their hands with a big striker like Gomez.
However, Löw risks allowing the Greeks to defend deep and narrow. Part of Germany’s brilliance in the group stage was that they had Gomez on the pitch to offer something different, so when Portugal tried to park the bus against them to crowd out the creative players, Germany could use Gomez as a more direct option. Instead, it seems, he’ll be a plan B.
For Greece, there remains a lack of drive going forward, unless Sotiris Ninis gets a surprise start on the right. Greece, predictably, will rely upon set-pieces.
Betfair recommended bets
Greece in Bookings Match bet at 1.45
Will playing Klose work when Reus and Schurrle are playing on the flanks? Those two will come inside more, leaving the flanks devoid of width that someone like Podolski can provide.
I would have kept Muller on, he has a good understanding with Klose and Ozil, plus he offers much needed width.
I think Reus is necessary because his long-distance shooting will force the Greeks to come out and close him down.
Combine that with Klose’s movement and it might open up some channels for through balls into the box that would otherwise never exist.
PS: Spain and Barca might want to learn from this approach. It’s not a bad idea to have a player that can pull the ball up and shoot to open up the defense a little.
Just as I put Gomez in my FF team as captain of course…
hahhaa…41% of people have gomez. All are swearing Low now
Its about time we see Löw adjusting to a ultra defensive squad…I have had my doubts about the double 6 (two holding midfielders) like in the game against denmark…but now we are pretty much gonna see 4 forwards in this game!! Cant wait!!!!
I think Reus is going to be so motivated for this game and will explode!!
If Reus plays, it will be due to Müller`s dearth of goals he has been suffering. Reus has been quite lethal this season. Therefore all four offensive players will be good scorers, which is important against a massive defence.
Another important player should be Lahm, who at last should try overlapping Podolski/Schürrle, to get to the goal line, something he has hardly done in this tournament up to now. He could cross – Klose is always a threat in the air – or play the ball back to an onrushing Özil/Podolski.
Lahm is not a great crosser with his strong right foot… His left foot is even less dangerous. I am curious how the two inverse players on the left flank will perform. Schürrle and Lahm like to cut inside instead of stayind wide and cross.
greek’s offence is wholly depended on the way how samaras will perform against boetang or else for all of 90 min we might see the ball is greek’s half .
I doubt he’ll drop Muller or Podolski. Klose has a good understanding with both of those players as well as Ozil and the former’s movement in particular will be crucial to the more fluid style of play that Klose gives them.
In any case, it’s not as if Klose’s not very good in the air – as the comparison with Gomez seems to imply. He’s a good header of the ball and has scored plenty of headed goals in international tournaments before. He may not have Gomez’s raw strength, but his all-round game and big-match mentality (something which had evaded Gomez for Germany up until now) more than makes up for it.
Strongly odds on that Germany will win tonight but just to construct a case for Greece:
If you put 9 men behind the ball (as they will) and are organised and committed and press like crazy it is tough for any team to break you down whoever they are.
The big problem with that strategy is that players ‘crack’. The incessant pressure kills them. They can cope for an hour or so but eventually one lapse in concentration and the chance is gone.
The only way to avoid this is to score. So Greece not only have to defend for their lives but they got to take their chance too (bound to get one in the first hour) which will give them the legs and sharpness to see the game out.
So, oddly enough, I think the key to Greece having any chance tonight is not their defence (that will take care of itself) but their attack. Can they put away their chance?
Seems to be confirmed that Löw will drop Podolski, Gomez and Müller for Schürrle, Klose and Reus. This could get interesting.
I agree with the Klose and Reus inclusions (Klose can drag Greek defenders out of position, Reus can shoot from outside the box) but the Podolski switch mystifies me.
Against Greece, you need a Podolski- someone that can take a first time shot and force the Greek defenders to come out of the box to close down his shooting.
Very weird choice IMO.
Seems a mistake to me to drop Gomez for this game. I actually think Klose is the better attacking option generally, but for this game Greece will be defending extremely deep and looking to stifle Germany. Klose can create space for his team mates and link play (while offering good finishing) but without space inbehind this might be pointless. Gomez would offer a more potent threat and is obviously on form. I would have started him and then perhaps dropped him for the next stage.
I would also bring in Schurrle for Podolski but keep Muller in, he seems to be in good form for me. Schurrle could massively surprise people, he is in great form and I would back him to score tonight.
I think Germany will dominate and get the win in this game, Greece just don’t offer enough goal threat and despite them defending a lot better against Russia, they have shown they can concede sloppy goals.
2-0 Germany I think. Schurrle and Ozil to score.
well, u predicted everything – apart from germany winning – wrong.
that shouldnt disqualify one from going on posting of course, but rather create points to think about.
it will be interesting. they have never played like that and im surprised he also dropped müller und podolski. they havent performed very well but they had amazing games with klose.
klose isnt much of a surprise but substituting three players seems bold.
if germany wins i wouldnt be surprised if löw gets podolski and müller back in the starting XI but not so sure about gomez.
judging from past experiences and his general attitude i think gomez is the one who will suffer the most from being benched.müller und podolski are tougher with those things. gomez needs a lot of trust to function as a player. i hope he doesnt take it too serious.
I’m almost sure that Löw planned this change long beforehand. It’s no last minute decision, but a carefully prepared plan B. Let’s see if it works.
Don’t know if defending deep will work for Greece, Klose is no mug in the air. He may not win as many aerial duels with centre-backs, but give him half a chance and he’ll bury a header.
Why no gotze? he would provide another playmaker from out wide to break down a massed defense. As opposed to the other options who are more on the direct side of things.
I guess he’s still not fit enough. But maybe he get’s his chance in the second half together with Kroos.
He should be fit by now, and he has said so himself in a recent interview.
I think the problem is that Jogi Löw sees him more as a no. 10. And if you have to choose between Mesut Özil who has played a fantastic season at Real and Götze who spent the last half year recovering from an injury, the result should be pretty obvious.
In my opinion, Loew has been the best tactician of the tournament by far. He not only outwitted Holland and Portugal but also successfully deployed a completely new system of play in the final third to accommodate Gomez after Klose was injured. The key to German success in WC2010 and in the qualifying rounds of Euro was the fluidity and movement of Klose, Mueller and Oezil. That Loew managed to devise another system to accommodate Gomez, a very different type of player (less mobile, more direct and less off the ball movements) is very impressive.
Another of Leow’s significant change is in the defensive formation where the central pair has formed a solid partnership so quickly which in my view the best in the tournament. Schweni’s and Khedira’s partnership too has evolved and their game is more fluid and hard to read by opponents thus give yet another tactical advantage.
At such, I am fairly certain that Leow knows what he doing with his changing of the entire frontline. Klose I believe always been the No 1 but been sidelined due to fitness. But even not quite 100% fit Klose can be a handful with his movement, positioning and link up play.
Podolski no longer the certainty he was 2 years ago and was fielded in the earlier games for his experience to neutralize the opposite full backs. Mueller is more flexible, harder working and was more effective offensively but lacks the technical skills to be a wide player. Schurrle and Reus are far more talented and attack oriented and in this game there is no need to peg down the opponents’ full back. With their dribbling skills, direct play, quickness, movements and close skills, these 2 players bring exactly the kind of skills set that are required to open up the Greek barricade.
I would have thought that Kroos would have been selected over Khedira since he can shoot from distance, which could be another tactic to get goals. Khedira has been consistent and one of the best German players, in fact played better in German shirt than Real’s. However in such game, Kroos would be more suitable.
Starting Klose is necessary, IMO.
Gomez is a great finisher, but his movement has never matched that of Klose.
Just compare Klose in World Cup 2010 to Gomez today. Klose’s ability to drag defenders all over the pitch by dropping deeper or moving into the channels opened up big spaces for the midfielders to play in.
Gomez, on the other hand, looks awkward when he tries to move around the pitch and the defenders don’t usually buy it because he inevitably ends up attacking the box right up the middle.
In fact, I’d say that when Gomez tries any kind of more fluid movement, he slows the Germans down because the midfielders aren’t used to it and in some cases it even disturbs their own game.
Here’s some stats to back up my claims. From last season:
- Klose had 1.7 dribbles per game vs. Gomez’s 0.9
- Klose had about 28 passes per game vs. Gomez’s 15
- Klose played more long balls
I think this all speaks to Klose’s ability to drift and engage more comprehensively in the game. Obviously you may prefer Gomez in more open games (i.e. Portugal, Holland), but against a tight, closed defense like Greece, you probably need someone that can move around more and drag defenders out of position.
So it’d be a good choice.
I think that he will do this radical change…
———Schweinsteiger———–
—-Khedira———-Cross——–
–Ozil——————Schurlle–
————Gomez—————–
This way Sweinsteiger would be free to dictate tempo and launch quick counters. He played last 15 min against Denmark this way, and they looked well…
If low decides to keep formation 4-2-3-1
——-Khedira——Schweinsteiger-
-Muller——-Ozil——-Schurlle–
————Gomez——————
I don’t think that he will change Gomez, because he played great at this tournament…
Podolski will be replaced for sure…
Schurle is the best replacement!
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