Euro 2012 preview: Sweden
Possible Sweden line-up (assuming Elmander is not fit)
For the first time since World Cup 1994, Sweden are at a major international tournament without Lars Lagerback. Now in charge of Iceland, Lagerback was at the helm for so long (first as a joint-coach with Tommy Soderberg, then in sole charge) that his footballing style -organised, defensive – became merged with Sweden’s footballing style, to the point where it was difficult to tell the difference between the two, at least to an outsider.
But think back to 1994, and Sweden were an attack-minded side – in fact, they were the highest scorers at that tournament, with 15 goals. Therefore, it shouldn’t come as a complete shock that Sweden are now playing expansive, attacking football under new coach Erik Hamren.
After Sweden became bored of Lagerback’s cautious approach (although it took non-qualification for the 2010 World Cup to seal his departure) they were always likely to become a more open side as a reaction. Along with Germany and Holland, they were one of only three sides to score 30 goals in qualifying.
Ibrahimovic
The main man is, of course, Zlatan Ibrahimovic. His status within the Swedish team is odd – when he plays, they’re cast as a one-man team. When he doesn’t, statistically their results are better. And when he’s on the bench, the entire game seems to revolve around when he’ll come on. He’s a huge presence in the squad and the key man on the pitch, and while he can dominate Sweden’s play too much, on his day he’s unstoppable.
The 3-1 win over Croatia in February confirmed his place in the side. Or rather, it confirmed his position. Not upfront on the shoulder of the last defender, but instead much deeper in a number ten position, becoming involved in build-up play and looking to create chances. It’s similar to the role Samuel Eto’o plays for Cameron (those players, of course, were involved in a high-profile swap deal three summers ago) – if the striker is clearly the best player in a team, often he feels the need to drop deep and help the team, rather than remaining upfront, frustrated at the lack of service.
“I get to keep the ball more, rather than fight for the tough ones like when I play all the way up top,” Ibrahimovic agrees. “I get the ball more at my feet, so that I can turn and advance with pace. That’s what I want to do – Erik told me to find new space all the time, and that gives us more options.”
Hamren suggests that his deep role depends on the strength of the opposition. “We’re thinking about trying it more against stronger teams, to prevent him getting too isolated,” he says. “But I think we still need him as a number nine in many other types of matches.” Of course, Ibrahimovic’s own preference won’t be ignored. An alternative would be a 4-3-1-2 system that could feature three central attackers, although this remains unlikely.
Attack
In an exciting attacking unit, the other places are unclear. The first-choice striker would be Johan Elmander of Galatasaray, but he’s only just returning from a broken metatarsal and may not be fit to start. If that’s the case, then PSV’s Ola Toivonen could play upfront instead – which is a slightly odd situation as he’s a the number ten for PSV, so essentially his and Ibrahimovic’s positions are reversed. Or Markus Rosenberg could play as the number nine.
But Toivonen might go to the left if Elmander is fit. If not, then Rasmus Elm will play on the left flank. He’s another Holland-based player with very good technique and an excellent right foot. He could also play on the right, where Sebastian Larsson, a similar player, will expect to be used. Essentially, it’s three from Rosenberg, Elmander, Toivonen, Elm and Larsson, depending upon Elmander’s fitness.
Midfield
The midfield is perhaps the most interesting part of the side. Sweden hold onto the ball for long periods, and the central duo is comprised of two talented, technical players – Kim Kallstrom, who hits ambitious balls forward with his left foot, and veteran Anders Svensson, who plays a little deeper but is also an intelligent user of the ball.
Hamren wants to play ‘quick and technical’ football, and these two have the most responsibility to prompt that, with Ibrahimovic also helping out in midfield.
Weak defence
At the back, unusually, is Sweden’s weak spot. Olof Mellberg is now 34 but remains an excellent all-round centre-back, but he’s significantly better than the rest of the defence. Daniel Majstorovic would have been his partner, but his injury means Andreas Granqvist will probably partner him.
Granqvist will also act as cover for right-back, where Mikael Lustig is a regular. On the other flank will be Martin Olsson. These players are similar – very quick and keen to stretch the play, allowing the wide players to attack more directly. They often risk leaving the centre-backs covering too much ground, however, and Hamren admits that this has been a problem in the past. “Our full-backs were too wide and when we lost the ball Holland punished us,” he said of a 4-1 defeat early in qualifying.
There’s also a concern about Sweden’s goalkeeper, Andreas Isaakson. He struggles with backpasses and doesn’t command his box, and Sweden have looked particularly poor when defending set-pieces in their pre-tournament friendlies.
Quick guide
Coach – Erik Hamren
Formation – 4-2-3-1
Key player – Zlatan Ibrahimovic
Strength – lots of attacking options and good retention skills
Weakness – the defence and goalkeeper
Key tactical question – where does Ibrahimovic play, and is Elmander fit?
Key coach quote – “It needs to be the whole team out on the pitch that does the job, not just some individual players, even though some individual players might get more attention than others.”
Betfair odds – 70.0 (69/1)
Recommended bet – Sweden to beat Ukraine at 3.1
Further reading – Johanna Gara’s interview with Hamren, Andy Hudson’s preview, Charlie Anderon’s preview
If that’s the case, then PSV’s Ola Toivonen will play upfront instead – which is a slightly odd situation as he’s a the number ten for PSV, so essentially his and Ibrahimovic’s positions are reversed.
But Toivonen might go to the left if Elmander is fit.
From what I’ve read, Markus Rosenberg will play upfront if Elander’s unfit. Tobias Hysén is third choice. Toivonen will play on the left, like in the two recent friendlies.
I prefer Elm a lo more in the middle
ZM is there a reason West Brom’s olsson isn’t playing? I would start him next to Mellberg.
I think Sweden could threaten England in this group. They have an alright defense (better than some make out) and offer a lot of attacking threat. Kallstrom and Svenson keep the ball excellently, Larsson offers great delivery from outwide and Elm is Sweden’s secret weapon – he is pacy, deadly from range and excellent at killer balls. Then there is Ibrahimovic, who is bang in form and one of the best players around right now. He seems to have an established position in the team and is all set to shine at this Euro’s.
Some weaknesses are that they can give away goals at times and their midfield is lightweight and struggle when they have to battle other strong midfields (think United against Chelsea a couple years back). They will also miss Elmander if he is unfit, he leads the line well and has a good partnership with Ibrahimovic.
Sweden have an attack that could get them far in the competition, but a defense that could just as easily see them go home easily. I could see them thrashing Ukraine and losing to France, so the England game could decide who comes second.
The reason WBA:s Jonas Olsson isn’t a starter is because he isn’t very good. He’s also a very aggressive player, extremely prone to really dive in to tackles and often goes in with both feet, studs first.
Granqvist, not a great player by any standard, is a superior player to Olsson.
I think he is a good CB. He has been the start player in West Broms defense (which saw them finish in high up the table) and is a better player than Granqvist from what I have seen.
Olsson just hasn’t been successful when on the pitch for the national team so far.
Toivonen was only used up front against Serbia because Rosenberg and Elmander were injured; otherwise he is third choice for the striker position. There is also the option of using Tobias Hysén, but Hamrén does not appear to see him as much more than a substitute.
Both Elmander and Rosenberg will be starting full training this Thursday, so they may be available against Ukraine. That would mean that Toivonen would be moved to the left wing (where he played earlier this year against Iceland and Croatia) and Rasmus Elm would take the central midfield place next to Kim Källström. Sebastian Larsson is assured of a place on the right wing, and Jonas Olsson looks to be playing alongside Mellberg (seeing as he has played significantly more than Granqvist since Majstorovic’s injury).
One detail I believe you should have highlighted about Sweden is that the side is overflowing with great free kick-takers. Sweden, with the likes of Elm, Källström, Seb Larsson and Ibra, may actually be the tournament’s best side set pieces-wise.
And Rasmus Elm can also deliver Rory Delap-esque Throw-ins! Dangerous.
It should be noted that Rasmus Elm might replace Anders Svensson in central midfield, especially since Svensson is carrying an injury.