Euro 2012 preview: Italy
Italy's possible starting line-up
In many ways, Cesare Prandelli isn’t a typical Italian coach. He’s a highly intelligent man, but one doesn’t think of him as a pure tactician like Marcello Lippi, Giovanni Trapattoni or Fabio Capello. He’s of an Arsene Wenger figure – he wants an overall, attacking philosophy rather than lots of specific tactics, and likes developing young players to suit his footballing identity.
He has attempted to move Italy towards a more positive style of play. That’s partly because it’s Prandelli’s natural style as coach, but also because Italy don’t have the secure defenders we’re accustomed to. The days of Fabio Cannavaro, Alessandro Nesta and Paolo Maldini have gone – Italy have good defenders, but not great ones. They’re more blessed in midfield.
Prandelli explains: “Many of the players felt that the time had come to play – I won’t say a different type of game because, in football, there is nothing new – but something else. Given that I have plenty of quality midfielders, I felt we should play to our strengths and with these players that means a much more attacking game.”
Midfield rotation
However, Italy’s problem is that they lack good wide players to play a four-man midfield. This isn’t a new problem, and even when they won the World Cup in 2006 they played a central midfielder (Simone Perrotta) on one flank, and an Argentine (Mauro Camoranesi) on the other. However, they’ve generally compensated for that with a world class number ten, allowing them to play a 4-3-1-2 or a 3-4-1-2, basing their play around a Roberto Baggio or Francesco Totti figure. Prandelli doesn’t really have that type of player either – Antonio Cassano plays higher up, Sebastian Giovinco’s international experience is limited and Alessandro Diamanti still doesn’t seem like a serious option, despite his inclusion in the squad.
Prandelli’s compromise has been interesting – he wants a constantly rotating midfield, making up for lack of a nominated central playmaker with movement and fluidity. That was obvious when he played 4-3-3 (the preferred formation at the start of his reign), and the experiment has continued with the midfield diamond he’s been using recently. The player at the base of the diamond, the fabulous Andrea Pirlo, stays in position and sprays passes forward. But the other three players – probably Daniele De Rossi and Claudio Marchisio as the shuttlers, and Riccardo Montolivo nominally at the top – switch around.
It’s an unusual system that is more fascinating than it is truly effective, and it doesn’t completely disguise the fact the Italy don’t have a true trequartista. Montolivo is a talented yet frustrating player who has never quite found his best position – even after years of playing under Prandelli for Fiorentina – and it’s arguable that he doesn’t offer anything not provided by the other three midfielders. Still, if his movement is intelligent he can drag players around and create space for the runs of De Rossi and Marchisio, who are both excellent at steaming into the box.
Further forward, in a strike duo that is probably the most naturally gifted yet most troublesome in the tournament, Prandelli is putting his faith in Cassano, who will play as an inside-left, and Mario Balotelli, who is the primary centre-forward but tends to move into the channels.
Back three?
But this assumes that Prandelli will play the 4-3-1-2 system. In fact, he retains that Italian penchant for switching systems late in the day – which provides great tactical interest. He’s the only coach in the tournament who seems unsure of his best formation, and also the only coach who will probably go with something other than a 4-4-2, a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3.
The other option is a 3-5-2. This would see the same forward duo, one player – probably Montolivo – dropped from the midfield, and a back three combined with wing-backs. A week ago, this made great sense because it meant Prandelli could field an all-Juventus back three of Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Bonucci and Andrea Barzagli, ahead of Juve’s goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon. However, this is less likely because of the news that Barzagli will miss a significant part of the tournament with a calf strain. De Rossi could drop deep – he showed this season for Roma that he can play there, but it’s clearly not his best position.
Defence
And so we return to the idea of a diamond in midfield, and a back four. It will still be an all-Juventus centre-back pairing of Chiellini and Bonucci, and with Domenico Criscito omitted due to his involvement in the current match-fixing probe in Italy, Palermo’s Federico Balzaretti will play (he would have battled Chiellini for that role, but Chiellini is now needed in the centre).
On the opposite flank will be Napoli’s Christian Maggio. Both these players are extremely energetic and forward-thinking – Maggio has been used as a wing-back rather than a full-back for the last few years as Napoli, while Balzaretti has often got through a lot of running in Palermo’s narrow systems. With a midfield diamond probable, Italy need consistent support from full-back, and the onus upon these players to get forward is huge.
Pirlo
That could leave the Italian defence exposed, often without protection from full-back, and while Pirlo has been superb for Juventus in that lone holding role this season, he’s not the best player defensively nor the most mobile, and may be overawed with direct counter-attacks through the centre of the pitch. He’ll need support from higher up, with De Rossi and Marchisio expected to close down energetically, yet also scamper back and protect the defence.
But let’s not imply that Pirlo is Italy’s weak link – he’s their key player. His ability to hit accurate long balls (with either foot) into the feet of the strikers is Italy’s best asset, and when combined with the runs of Cassano and Balotelli, he could be one of the tournament’s star performers.
Bench
Italy also have attacking variety. Fabio Borini is a clever wide forward, another who makes good runs (and would be perfect if Prandelli wants to switch to a 4-3-3), while Antonio Di Natale isn’t really fancied by Prandelli, but would be a constant menace and a natural finisher. Giovinco and Diamanti, again, provide different options. Prandelli’s problem isn’t variety, but outright quality.
Conclusion
Italy don’t have enough players who guarantee top-level performances, and therefore they’re relying upon the strategy of their coach to have a significant impact upon this tournament. Prandelli’s preference for unusual formations (in the context of this tournament) means Italy will provide an interesting challenge for their opponents, who might struggle to cope with a diamond.
Quick guide
Coach – Cesare Prandelli
Formation – Probably 4-3-1-2
Key player – Andrea Pirlo
Strength – Good possession play
Weakness – The absence of two key starters from the defence, plus no reliable number ten
Key tactical question – What formation does Prandelli play?
Key quote – Prandelli: “The feeling was that we needed to evolve our style, to try and play a little more on the front foot.”
Betfair odds: 18.0 (17/1)
Recommended bet: Italy v Spain to be over 2.5 goals at 2.46
Further reading: Calcio by John Foot
Huge Italy fan here, Mr.Cox, thank you for the preview!
And like you’ve rightly pointed out, Prandelli’s formation conundrum is keeping everyone on their feet, fans and opposition alike. I wonder if Del Bosque will have something up his sleeve just in case Italy decide to surprise ‘em with a backline of 3! When do the coaches release the squad list for a particular game, like an hour or so before kick-off aye? Should be interesting,just saying.
And there are calls for Abate to start over Maggio *if* Italy stick to a backline of 4; probably because Maggio plays as a wing-back in a 3-man defence for Napoli while Abate is a full-back in a convention 4-man backline for Milan. That,coupled with Maggio’s blunders against Russia,perhaps. I’m a Milan supporter myself, but I still think Maggio should get the nod over Abate. Like you have pointed out, the full-backs have a vital role to play in Prandelli’s squad and Maggio provides more upfront, I suppose.
Fantastic preview, thank you!
#ForzaAzurri
Excellent analysis, I agree with you on everything in general.
Regarding the defence, I think Prandelli overlooked Paolo Cannavaro who had an excellent campaign and was overshadowed by the lack of quality around him in Napoli’s 3-man defence, he would’ve been a solid option, perhaps better than Bonucci (who is shaky every now and then) in my opinion.
As for the right back, Abate (although having some shortcomings of his own) is a better option in a 4-3-1-2 formation than Maggio who like you said prefers going forward.
I always adored Italy for playing with a treqautista, but we have to admit that it might not be the best option considering the players they have at the moment.
Italy are a big question mark for me, I’m not sure if they will click together or not. I think they should play a 433, dropping Montolivo and replacing him with Di Natale in a Forward role with Cassano and Balotelli playing off him.
With their current system I don’t think they get the best out of their players. Montolivo lacks the ability to play those killer balls for the forwards that will be needed, plus it leaves Italy without much of a reference point in attack , with Balotelli and Cassano floating around in fluid positions. These two forwards could find it hard to find space against the compact defenses of Ireland and Croatia, which massively negates Italy’s threat. Montolivo also gets in the way of Marchisio getting forward, who is excellent at timing his runs forward and could be a secret weapon for Italy.
They do look solid at the back with the Juventus contingent, while the fullbacks should offer good width to Italy’s attacks, allowing Balotelli and Cassano to roam more. I think they could go out early though with this formation, as they lack a reference point in attack and have Montolivo playing out of position in a key attacking role. I expect them to struggle against Ireland and Croatia, though their four man midfield could help stifle Spain.
Nice way of putting it, however, I still have my concerns over the Juve defence, it still hasn’t been properly tested on the European stage, and as we’ve seen in the Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund dominated over the past two seasons but weren’t even able to qualify from their UCL group.
As for dropping Montolivo, I completely agree, and Marchisio’s role is certainly being neglected with the current formation.
I think they will definitely miss Barzagli, who has been great this season. Bonucci is somewhat untested against top class forwards, so could be exposed. So you make a good point, they could also leak goals at the back, another problem for Italy.
Well he just isn’t needed is he? He’s an alright player, but he is so unadventurous, the only way this formation would work would be to have someone like Boateng, a player who has the energy to play two roles – CM and supporting forward. Marchisio could be a cheeky bet for Italy’s top scorer.
“I still have my concerns over the Juve defence, it still hasn’t been properly tested on the European stage”
IMHO Juve defence was never that good in Serie A as well. Their blessing was the midfield – the spine of that team – and not the strength or quality (which they don’t have) of their defence.
Great preview!
First of all Prandelli saw that his 4-3-1-2 collapsed in his last three matches.Italy were too vulnerable on the flanks.I thought that despite all these,Pradnelli will play 4-3-1-2.But I was wrong,he has proved that he is a flexible coach by beginning to talk about using a 3-5-2 and his last training sessions prove that-Bonucci,De Rossi,Chiellini as a back three.For me Chiellini should in the center and instead of De Rossi Prandelli could use Abbate or Balzaretti.Moreover,Cassano has been injured all season so he should stay on the bench.
The most important question-is one week enough with training 3-5-2 to beat Spain?
Probably not. But who cares. It would work best against 2-man attacks of Croatia and Ireland, whose only threat is in direct balls to two strikers, and one spare man for Italy at the back would definitely help negate that threat. More important for Italy is to win those two games, than against Spain. And in the past, Italy struggled against those two teams.
For the Spain game, Italy can play in the midfield diamond, as they usually play.
I can’t really see any benefit in playing three at the back in the Euro’s, since so few teams play with two forwards (England and Ireland come to mind, but even they field that duo vertically rather than horizontally). If Italy do start with the shape predicted and Balo + Cassano up front, it’d make sense to play Giovinco behind them. Good at creating chances, but also very direct when needed.
If you don’t mind conceding the midfield e.g. Napoli and prefer to attack rapidly then it might not matter
Naturally, but as Michael pointed out in the article, Italy are trying to play more positively with Prandelli in charge. That’d be against the very philosophy they’re trying to build the team around.
this may be a naive question as I don’t watch much Italian football, but wouldn’t Alberto Aquilani be the right man at the tip of the midfield diamond?
As earlier mentioned, one of the problems with the formation is the lack of an essential trequartista. But with Pirlo sitting deep as a regista, wouldn’t it suit the Italian team perfectly to use Marchisio as a “runner” between midfield/forwards? His excellent runs and great energy would certainly fit that role. He’s maybe more of a Gerrard than a Totti, but Allegri has shown in Milan by using Boateng in that role that there’s no desperate need for a trequartista if you already have enough creativity on the pitch.
I think there would be a lack of dynamic if they use Montolivo on the top of the diamond.
One thing that you didnt point out is the fact that a 3-5-2 fits Pirlo even more than a classic diamond formation with 4 defenders. With three central defenders behind him (with more freedom to move forward and press the forward/second striker of the opposition) there will be less emphasis on Pirlo defensive work, and if the opposition is good physically (especially in the air) the 3-5-2 is definitely favourable. His primary concern would then be to cut of angles – which he is quite good at.
The 3-5-2 will also be favourable against the other teams in the group. Croatia and Ireland both use two centerforwards and Spain lacks direct penetration from wingers. I think that Prandelli really could call Del Bosque’s bluff because neither Silva nor Arbeloa will offer enough width to the spanish team to decipher the 3-5-2-formation. Maybe they can use De Rossi in the same role that Rafa Marquez has in Mexico?
I’m surprised Prandelli didn’t make more of an attempt to capitalise on the success of this season’s Juve team (especially the defence) which was full of Italians. 3-5-2 would’ve been ideal if Barzagli was fit. Then De Rossi could’ve taken the Vidal role in midfield. Balzaretti is better than De Ceglie and Maggio isn’t as good as Lichtsteiner, but is a good right wing back.
Well, Maggio is significantly better than Lichtsteiner in 3-5-2 formation. Lichtsteiner is much better as right back in the defense of 4.
I completely disagree. Lichtsteiner was immense this season as a wing back.
So was Maggio… Just saying…
In some ways I question Pirlo, because he can’t cover on defense. Motta and De Rossi are also pretty good passer and are much better on defense.
The injury of Rossi really hurt Italy as they look really good playing a 4-3-3.
Not a huge Cassano fan because he lacks movement. Might want to consider Borini or with Balotelli.
If I needed some excitement I’d consider a front three of Giovinco, Balo, Borini
Or what about 3-4-2-1 especially against Spain, where you want to control the midfield.
Start – Ogbonna, Chiellini & Bonucci
Maggio, Motta, DeRossi, Balzaretti – Motta and DeRossi can provide defensive cover.
Norcerino, Marchisio – Who both are goalscores and can attack the goal via runs.
Balotelli
If you need a goal drop Norcerino for Cassano, or bring on Givinco & Borini.
Without Pirlo?That’s a nonsense.
Drop Pirlo and Cassano………right.
Against Spain I would probably drop Pirlo, Motta is a much better option as Italy won’t see much of the ball, sop Pirlo would be luxary they couldn’t afford.
But against Croatia and Ireland Pirlo will definitely be needed.
Italy would benefit from rotating their forwards, though that doesn’t seem to be in Prandelli’s plans. Against Spain, Cassano will be almost useless, as his creativity and intelligence won’t make up for the fact that he is slow on the ball and not a great finisher (the latter is important because it’s unlike that Italy will get more than a few chances). Di Natale plays in a counter-attacking system at Udinese and can turn quickly and shoot with impressive accuracy after receiving the ball, which makes him a much better choice (though unless Italy go to a 3-5-2 he won’t have the benfit of wing-backs storming down the flanks as he often does at the club level). Against Ireland, on the other hand, Cassano will be ideal, as his intelligent off the ball runs to open up space and ability to play through balls to onrushing midfielders will be crucial against a packed defense.
I think it’s an absolute travesty that Di Natale isn’t first choice; what more does the guy have to do?
Really though, he’s a better goal scorer than either Balotelli or Cassano, and he comes without the attitude problems and is much more than a Defoe-like poacher. Against the reactionary sides they play, they lack attacking thrust- they should replace Montolivo with Di Natale (or at least Giovinco). Additionally, Montolivo will get in the way of Marchisio’s storming runs into the box, as mentioned above.
Regarding Di Natale there is a question mark because Italy is not Udinese, and those few times that he played for Italy he failed.
I’d also add that he’s part of an endangered species of poacher type striker who contribute little to the team, apart from erm, banging in goals….
You know what I mean though right?
He created 9th most chances in the Serie A past season, more than eg. Diamanti.
Totally disagree… In my opinnion Di Natale is the best Italian striker at the moment…
Banging in goals where, with Udinese?! We’re talking about the national team in Euro 2012 here, not a small club in Serie A.
So cassano who was brought from samprodoria suddenly became world class striker?
Udinese has been a good serie a team for while and natale is best italian forward at the moment(rossi is injured)
It looks to me that this web site doesnt download in a Motorola Droid. Are other folks having the exact same issue? I enjoy this site and dont want to have to miss it any time Im gone from my computer.
You spell it ‘Italia’, but you pronounce it ‘Juventus’.
I think the key position for Italy will be the ‘trequartista’ if they play 4-3-1-2. Playing Montolivo there would no doubt make the midfield more solid overall, but it would also stiffle their attack I believe, like others have mentioned, Marchisio and De Rossi would be restricted in their forward runs. I would most likely play Giovinco there as he moves pretty well and is creative and an okay finisher.
I also think that it would show a huge lack of confidence in his other players if Prandelli would play De Rossi as a central defender in 3 man defense (unless the idea is to have tactical flexibility and being able to switch to 4-3-1-2 without subs).
anyone else keen to see nocerino in the lineup. He would offer energy a drive from midfield, combined with marchisio and derossi you can have a midfield that runs all day. Monto and/or pirlo in there to do the ‘paper work’
If italy is creative enough they can cause spain problems, i feel there is a good anti spain in them somewhere, maybe a 4321