Euro 2012 previews: general themes
Team-by-team previews are on their way later today. But, to save repetition in many articles, here are some general themes based upon recent international tournaments:
1. For underdogs, being defensive and organised, then playing on the break is the best bet
Fans of outsiders in this competition have often complained that they’re not passing the ball well enough and that they want to see a more expansive game. That might be personal preference in terms of aesthetics, but the current success as Spain shouldn’t be seen as the template for more minor football nations in this competition.
Recent underdogs who have proved successful have generally been very defensive, have allowed themselves to be dominated, then relied on counter-attacking and set-pieces. Continental champions Greece in 2004 and Zambia in 2012 had the lowest pass completion rate of any side in the tournament. Uruguay weren’t quite so extreme in World cup 2010 and Copa America 2011, but were very reactive. For the likes of Ireland, Czech Republic and Ukraine, playing ‘good football’ is not on the agenda.
Being a knockout tournament, you can get far simply by being hard to beat – Paraguay reached last year’s Copa America final with five consecutive draws.
2. Strikers don’t need to be prolific to be part of a winning side
In 1998 Stephane Guivarc’h spearheaded the victorious French side despite not scoring in the entire tournament, in 2006 Luca Toni did something similar, only scoring in one game. Even Spain in 2010 didn’t see their starting striker score in any matches – David Villa only scored in games where he’d started on the left, and Fernando Torres didn’t score.
In international football the striker is often a target man and a hold-up player rather than a brilliant poacher, and the Golden Boot might be won with as few as four goals.
3. The schedule will be important
This has been touched on before – the draw was important not just because of who each team was drawn against, but because some sides will have a serious advantage in terms of preparation time.
4. Club connections are vital
Spain depended a lot on Barcelona at the last World Cup, Italy had good club connections (Pirlo-Gattuso, Cannavaro-Zambrotta, Totti-Perrotta) thoughout the side too. Football is, more than ever, based around familiarity and cohesion when it comes to passing moves. Club football has never been so superior to international football, and it’s now obvious that international sides suffer by not having enough time to work on attacking moves as club sides.
Therefore, it’s clear to see that Russia have built upon Zenit and CSKA players and the Czechs have built on (ex-)Plzen players, for example. There are many more instances.
5. Lesser nations don’t have stars
With the exception of Zlatan Ibrahimovic (and a couple of younger players like Christian Eriksen who haven’t yet proved themselves on the international stage) the outsiders in this competition don’t have a single world-class figure to build the side around.
That, to a certain extent, has always been the case. But there is no Gheorghe Hagi, no Hristo Stoichkov, no Pavel Nedved, no Zlatko Zahovic, no Marc Wilmots – players who, around ten years ago, utterly dominated their side and played a huge part in their success or failure. This time around, coaches of outsiders have stressed the importance of playing as a team to maximise ability, having acknowledged the lack of top-class players.
6. Various sides are atypical of their nationality
Holland aren’t very Dutch, Germany aren’t very German, Italy aren’t very Italian, Sweden aren’t very Swedish – the list goes on.
7. The major contenders have made few changes from 2010
Germany, Holland and Spain were the only three European sides to make the World Cup quarter-finals two years ago. Then, there was no talk of a ‘last chance’ for any particular generation of players, and these three nations have broadly kept the same side. Spain have called 19 of the same 23 players, for example (it would have been 21 had David Villa and Carles Puyol been fit) while the German and Dutch sides will be familiar to anyone who hasn’t watched them in the last two years, though each side has been forced to evolve slightly to prevent becoming predictable.
Coincidentally, left-back has been the position each of these three sides has either changed, or struggled to fill.
8. Little variety in shape
Tactical interest at the World Cup came from non-European sides: Brazil’s lopsided shape, Chile’s 3-3-1-3, North Korea’s 5-1-2-1-1, New Zealand’s 3-4-3, Uruguay’s various systems, the USA’s 4-2-2-2, Mexico’s 3-4-3 / 4-3-3.
Unless Italy spring a surprise, there probably won’t be any three-man defences. We’re also looking to Italy for the only real chance of a 4-3-1-2. Every other country will play a back four, a central striker, two wide players and a combination of three central midfielders, in some format. It’s 4-4-2, 4-4-1-1, 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Any side that is brave enough to try something different may prosper.
4) Agree. This seemed like the ideal time to pick 6 or 7 United players for the England team, with so few outstanding alternatives. And then just fill in the gaps around them. Especially with Woy in the job for such a brief period of time.
Maybe this didn’t happen because it’s not good for United (fitness-wise) and Sir Alex has Woy wrapped around his little finger (as does just about everyone). Obviously you’ve got the Terry ’situation’ and no guarantees Carrick and Scholes would say yes, would like to have seen evidence it was at least tried though.
I was thinking the exact same thing. With a lack of preparation time and the need for a cohesive unit, building a team around Manchester United seems a logical choice. Wellbeck, Rooney, Young, Scholes, Cleverly, Carrick, Jones, Smalling and Ferdinand with a compliment of other players around that such as Hart and Cole… The team would at least have a very good understanding amongst each other, and whilst this United team is not the strongest that we have seen in a while, it is still one of the better club sides in the world.
As I have said many times these days, the worst inclusion is not Henderson but Kelly. Selecting two right backs from the same team won’t work.
Headscrating about Hibbert’s continous omission. A back four who played at club level fir at least 2 years, and when your wingers don’t defend it does not hurt to have someone who offers little forward.
Fortunately, Hodgson’s avoided that problem by building around Liverpool instead.
Unfortunately*
Fortunate for people with senses of humor…
why do you wanna do that? M.United had a crappy season!
How come Sweden isn’t very Swedish? Having followed the whole qualification as a Finn, they really were as Swedish as it gets in my opinion, relying to speedy players, and great individuals, like Zlatan and Källström.
Traditionally Sweden would use a 3-5-2 and man mark
Sweden is very Swedish in my opinion: 4-4-2 and defending with two banks of four like most Swedish managers prefer (greatly influenced by the success of Roy Hodgson back in the 70’s).
Sweden has during the last decade been very much a reactive side, working on containing the opponent and only creating chances on the counter or by pushing up and forcing goals from setpieces or inividual performances. The new manager has a goal of more possesion, and creating offensive movement thereby forcing errors or creating chances, still vey much with the swedish player, but now with Zlatan as a 10 instead of as a target forward. Lets see if it works…against Holland the first time during qualifiers it meant no defence and bad attacking, during the return mat h it meant goals and not allowing holland to attack..(against an unmotivated dutch side though)
In my opinion, Sweden has always been a reactive side that relies on teamwork and a bit of magic from certain players, no matter the sport. It’s kinda in their culture. I think that the introduction of Zlatan has created an image of Sweden evolving in their focus, though it only adds something to their game. It’s a concept not having to change.
So, it’s pickled herring with a dollop of ajvar on top…
“the outsiders in this competition don’t have a single world-class figure”
You either don’t recognise Robert Lewandowski as a world class player or Poland as the outsiders which I think is wrong in both cases. He was Bundesliga’s Player of the Year, he was better than rightly hyped Kagawa this year and he is world class if you ask me.
However, Polish national team is not build around him. What’s more, I consider Łukasz Piszczek the best Polish player. Majority of fans will probably agree that Philipp Lahm is a world class right back, yet Piszczek was better than him in Bundesliga 2010-11 and 11-12, even if you ask German journos and fans. Moreover, of all full backs in top European leagues, only Dani Alves (if you still call him full back) was more effective than Piszczek in terms of goals and assists this year. Still, it’s harder to praise a full back as a world class player than a striker.
And here, accidentally we come to point 4. Bar Spain, Poland possess arguably the most interesting offensive club connection of this tournament – Dortmund trio Piszczek-Błaszczykowski-Lewandowski. Two offensive minded players on the right side and great striker. I’m looking forward to see how they will perform, fish out of great Dortmund machine and put among players of lesser quality.
I’m obviously waiting for your preview and plan to enjoy it as always.
Cheers.
I like Lewandowski, but the guy has had one good season.
And I don’t think that quote retains the initial meaning of the sentence.
Kind of invalid. There have been excellent seasons for some superb players just like Lewandowski in the past but they eventually ended up in poor diplays both on international and club level. Yoann Gourcuff is the obvious example. I favoured him so much and he is so talented. But the last two years he is completely out of form. Let’s hope Lewandowski won’t end up like that.
OK, maybe I believe in him more than you because I was watching his progress for last 4 years. And it was surely not one good season, although earlier there were great seasons against weaker competition and quite good first season in Germany for youngster from Poland. Still, I believe in 4 years time you won’t hesitate.
It is very possible that Prandelli wil use 3-5-2 against Spain.His 4-3-1-2 collapsed against Russia.Italian flanks were too easily crossed ,and I was very surprised to see that in defence italian shape was the same 4-3-1-2.No one had been going to cover to flangs-only the left,right defenders did that.
For me in defence this shape should look 4-4-2,not 4-3-1-2.
4. Agree that club connections are vital. Portugal 2004 (Porto – Maniche-Costinha-Deco, Paulo Ferreira-Ricardo Carvalho) being one of the most successful in this tournament’s history.
A ninth point: 9) Depth on the bench is more important than ever before. Teams that have a decent group of players but lack particularly good options from the bench are most likely to anticipate problems. Except from fatigue which is the most common cause there are injuries, suspensions and many other situations where a couple of decent options for each position is essential. Big favourites have (and also had at the World Cup)some excellent options in their 23-man squad.
Completely agree with the other points though. Great article.
Depth on the bench has also been critical. Howso more now than ever? I don’t really get that.
In the past it was common for teams to retain their starting XI every match despite fatigue. In modern football this is not possible. And particularly in recent years when players have a lot more games to play each year. Definitely a catalyst factor in rotating your squad. This year I can say this phenomenon will be present in every time and so depth is now more important than previous competitions. Certainly not so much more than the World Cup, but still a little bit bolder.
Really good article I concur with points 2 and 4
how is it, that zonal marking hasn’t put every other football journalist out of business yet?
i hope the new generation of football journalists grows up with sites like zonal marking. its amazing how little people know who work for twenty years as football journalists.
Harry Harris is quite good, too.
I agree, this a phenomenal site.
The BBC or ITV should hire Michael. It’s going to be depressing watching their clueless coverage after reading articles like this.
If international football is poor, relative to european club football, when did the distance in quality begin to emerge, and for what specific reasons? Why is it, for instance, Brazil 1970 are regularly acknowledged as playing the most beautiful football of their time, similarly with the Dutch slightly later? What explains these changes – if there are real changes?
I’d also like to see an answer from Michael on this as it is an issue that I’m similarly pre-occupied by. My own take would be, assuming that he’s right, is that this has really come to the fore the in last 10 years or so. The best players in the world (of any nationality) now generally play for a handful of clubs (perhaps as few as six)and given the amount of time they can spend together in comparison to national teams, the end result is football of higher technical merit.
Whether this has detracted or not from the prestige of winning international tournaments is perhaps a different argument.
I am an avid follower of your excellent blog and your previews have so far given me wonderful insight in the three Group A teams that I did not really know that much about (except for their Premier League and Bundesliga players).
I was just wondering if all 16 previews will be posted today?
for your first point not two teams can play the same type of football or else the team which has better players will whip the team which is devoid of that quality better example is that of the game between bilbao vs barcelona both played the same style but barca’s extra quality meant they had the spoils . now you seem to write that in terms of england but it also does means that teams have to make better use of the ball when they have the possession and no team can have a lapse in concentration .
for your second point i do agree to a certain point but he needs to be good he need to hold the ball most of the teams playing in the tournament will play the floor game and will press and so it will be important that the front player needs to hold the ball for his team and if possible if he can have that extra quality then he can be a hero . to be honest it will be a contest between the long ball style versus the floor style and to be honest most of the underdogs teams will be playing long ball game and that is only way that you can defeat the floor style or better technically equipped team . the only way spain got defeated in 2010 world cup was because of long ball . you cannot out pass or outplay spain germany , netherlands you need a good pivot .
lesser nations dont have stars but this the platform where stars are born . for eg.arshavin was a star in the last one . so this tournament will provide opportunity
to not only the players but also to the coaches to show case their talent and their tactical acumen as to how they can make better use of the players that are available and get the best out of it . hiddink cemented his name as legend with russia as did the greek coach in 2002 . so lets see who has the desire to become big and get a fat pay check .
The style and syntax of this post reminds me of a Nigerian scam email.
Nation per nation previews! Zonalmarking, you are awesome. *hats off*
thank god,the previews are finally here…
Are we discounting Wayne Rooney from #5 because he’s suspended the first two matches?
I, for one, would like to hear Alan Shearer’s take on the above points.