Euro 2012 preview: Russia
Russia's possible starting line-up
There are many lessons to take from Spain’s dominance of international football over the past few years, and an important one has been the importance of bringing a solid club connection to international level.
Spain’s World Cup-winning side had a core of Barcelona players, played roughly the same style of football, and therefore benefited from long-standing relationships that couldn’t have been built in the minimal time international sides enjoy together.
Russia coach Dick Advocaat is well aware of this, and has been keen to follow a similar principle as Russia coach. “I just built upon a group of CSKA and Zenit players,” he says. “Both teams are doing well, and it has proved to be the right view.”
Zenit midfield connection
Zenit are the main team represented. That’s obvious off the pitch (Surgey Fursenko, the President of the Russian Football Union, used to be at Zenit, as did Advocaat) but more importantly, on it. “It’s a fixed system, always 4-3-3, the same one I played with at Zenit,” says Advocaat.
Most obviously, the midfield three all play for Luciano Spalletti’s side. Zenit are a wonderful, free-flowing side who rotate their midfield triangle well and play predominantly on the counter-attack. Few other countries will have such a good understanding in the centre of their side. Furthermore, Andrei Arshavin has returned to Zenit, while right-back Aleksandr Anyukov is another. If Aleksandr Kerzhakov starts upfront, which seems likely, that’s six of the ten outfield players provided by Zenit.
CSKA defence
CSKA provide the defensive base of the team. Goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev has returned from injury and will start if 100% fit (though there are big doubts about this – inevitably, his back-up is Zenit’s keeper, Vyacheslav Malafeev), and plays behind the centre-back pairing of Aleksei Berezutski (in for his injured brother) and Sergei Ignashevich, a trio that has played together at club level for years.
Further forward, Alan Dzagoev is another CSKA player, so the only odd man out in the probable starting XI is Anzhi’s Yuri Zhirkov – although he played for CSKA for five years until 2009, so there’s an understanding with the centre-backs there, too.
Forward dilemma
The real debate in this side is upfront, where Advocaat has a choice between two different styles of player. He could go for the simple, target man option – either Pavel Pogrebnyak or Roman Pavlyuchenko, who are strong, good in the air and hold the ball up and wait for midfield runners. The more likely option is Kerzhakov, who plays a very different role – he drifts to the flanks, particularly the left, dragging defenders away and creating space for the midfielders to exploit. He’s smaller, trickier and better technically.
Despite the difference in style, there’s a clear consistency – the striker is not in this side predominantly to score goals (though that would be nice) but to spearhead the attack and create opportunities for the other players. Kerzhakov understands that better than anyone else, but the false nine has rarely worked successfully at international level, with coaches generally preferring a traditional number nine and a more basic style of football. But with the club connection, Advocaat can afford to go with a false nine and the most sophisticated of the three strikers.
Goalscoring could be problematic – with a large part of the striker’s job about bringing others into play, Russia rely upon those attacking midfielders having the confidence in front of goal. With Arshavin, for example, that’s a risky strategy. They may look to set-pieces for goals – in the pre-tournament friendly against Italy, they twice threatened with very long corners towards a runner coming in at the far post.
Formation and fluidity
Although this is a 4-3-3, it’s a very different type of 4-3-3 from the way Barcelona, for example, play a 4-3-3, because it features two wide players who both come inside into the centre of the pitch. Arshavin essentially becomes a playmaker, a number ten, while the highly-promising Dzagoev plays in a similar position but looks to get in advance of the striker more frequently, and was Russia’s top goalscorer in qualifying, with four goals.
But the real dark horse, in terms of goalscoring, is Roman Shirokov. He breaks forward from midfield to the edge of the penalty box with very well-timed runs. That was particularly obvious during Zenit’s match against Benfica in the Champions League this season, and also in Russia’s warm-up match against Italy – in both games, he scored twice.
Without the ball, Shirokov and Konstantin Zyryanov work as a duo, pressing more heavily than the equivalent players in similar systems will do at this tournament. They’re not scared to move across the halfway line to shut down their man, which can leave Igor Denisov a little stranded in front of the defence – although Denisov can also move forward to track an opposition number ten, often leading to rash tackles to win the ball, or cynical fouls to break up counter-attacks. With the ball, Russia can move the ball around excellently with quick, one-touch passing – though they can also hold onto the ball for too long, and dominate possession without creating chances.
Quick full-backs, slow centre-backs
With Arshavin and Dzagoev coming inside, the width comes from full-back. Zhirkov tends to become involved in attacking play frequently and is technically the better of the two, but Anyukov is a very powerful runner and arrives later on in attacking moves. These two must provide forward runs, in order to stretch the play, and a side that pins them back will make Russia very narrow.
Despite the good understanding at the back, there is a concern about the pace of the two centre-backs, and with both full-backs moving forward and the midfield pressing rather than sitting deep, Russia might be vulnerable to quick passes through the side. The centre-backs, like the midfielders, stick tight to their man, and can be dragged around by intelligent forwards. Another defensive concern is the work rate and positioning of the two wide forwards.
Fitness
The physical condition of the side is also an issue. Almost the whole squad currently plays in Russia (a few having returned to secure their place in this side, after underwhelming spells in the Premier League), and have just finished a long ‘transition’ season from a summer to a winter calendar. They’ve effectively played one-and-a-half seasons, with the ‘half’ exclusively comprised of games against other big sides after a ’split’ in the table, meaning a very demanding run-in for all these players.
When combined with an old squad (and even the youngest player, Dzagoev, recently missed over a month with a toe injury) and a match every four days, it’s a genuine problem – which contributed to the arrival of the controversial, innovative fitness coach Raymond Verheijen, who has worked with Advocaat before. “Of all the sixteen Euro participants Russia is the only team which has consistently trained just once a day – it’s about freshness instead of fitness,” he says.
Conclusion
Russians don’t seem optimistic, but this is a relatively exciting team. “We’re not going to suddenly go defensive,” promises Advocaat. “In qualifying we were successful because we went out to win games. We have to be positive.” In a poor group that looks likely to be cagey, Russia will the most proactive side and will expect to qualify for the knockout stage.
Quick guide
Coach – Dick Advocaat
Formation – It will be termed 4-3-3 – although it’s 4-1-4-1 without the ball, and roughly 4-3-2-1 with it
Key player – Alan Dzagoev
Strength – the cohesion of the midfield
Weakness – the pace of the centre-backs
Key tactical question – which striker starts? This will determine Russia’s play in the final third
Key coach quote – “I don’t care about big names as long as they can play as a team. Everyone knows what their position is.”
Betfair odds: 23.0 (22/1)
Recommended bet: Russia to be eliminated in the quarter-finals at 2.3
Further reading: Jonathan Wilson’s Behind The Curtain
Quick correction: it’s Alexei Berezutski who will be teaming up with Ignashevich. His brother, Vasili, is the regular starter but has been forced to withdraw from the squad with an injury.
Thanks! Fixed
Great detail really enjoyed that. This Russian team have gone 11 games unbeaten coming into this competition. They boast a good side based around a very strong defence, only conceding four goals in the ten qualifying games and keeping seven clean sheets. The Russians are a very proud nation and will not want to slip up, especially in Poland. They would expect to qualify being favourites of the group.
If your posting these for every team at the tournament, it’s probably better you merely repost the Ireland post from November as the team hasn’t really changed at all. Although Trap did say last night that he might consider playing only one striker. This change would be very strange as Ireland are possibly the team in the tournament who have being the most consistent with their shape/approach/starting 11 and Trap is a stickler for consistency.
“the striker is not in this side predominantly to score goals (though that would be nice) but to spearhead the attack and create opportunities for the other players” Some pundits can’t get their head around this
Another great preview.
I think weirdly that Russia might struggle in this group. They have a talented team, but might struggle as Favorites in this group, where the other teams will sit back and break. If Russia can make it out of the group then they could fare better as the underdogs against stronger teams. The only worry I have is that their CB’s can struggle when teams break at speed (likely in this group) and that Arshavin has looked poor in recent times for a player with such big irresponsibility for scoring. As ZM mentioned their midfield chemistry is excellent and Dzagoev could become the player of the tournament.
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I really agree with your premise that Russia will struggle to break down teams sitting back and do better against teams leaving more space. It happened with Zenit as well.
The tactic can be very entertaining in an open game, but these teams will just sit back and let Russia play in front of them. Russia will need something special from Arshavin or Dzagoev to break down these defenses.
Hey,
In your post you told that Arshavin has been poor lately. I can tell that the transfer back to Zenit was good move. Did you watch him playing after the transfer? He has an outstanding connection with Kerzhakov and they’ll surely be very dangerous on field due the fact that Shava is unpredictable playmaker with lots of pace mixed with good ball control and Kerzhakov is quick, strong, well balanced and clinical when it comes to finishing!
I’m not try to be a dick with this post, i just want to let everyone know that Arshavin is at the moment on much better form than he was on his last season in premier league!
Tomorrow you’ll see the magic happen, hopefully!
They were really impresive against Italy.Great movement and great work without the ball.
Can’t blame them. Most of them, being ex-footballers with a bias that their own period was superior, interprete contemporary football trends using the dominant theoretical framework of their own time without realizing that theoretical frameworks for understanding the game change with time.
Aleksandr Anyukov isn’t the captain of Zenit, he turned down the captaincy. Malafeev is the captain.
I’ve been an avid follower of ZM since the beginning but referring to Pavlyuchenko as “strong” and someone who “hold(s) the ball up and wait(s) for midfield runners” is the most ludicrous thing I’ve ever read on here! He’s not strong and is terrible at holding the ball up, although most of the time he doesn’t even bother trying to keep the ball and just tries hopelessly optimistic shots or plays terrible short passes. He always gets his body in the complete wrong position which allows defenders to easily nick the ball. He is decent in the air when it comes to attacking crosses but isn’t at all good at winning long balls or flick ons. He does have an absolute rocket of a shot but is just as likely to miss a tap in from 6 yards!
It is even more ludicrous pertaining to Pogrebnyak.
hahaha i was going to make the same comment about pavlyuchenko but brian beat me to it. there is nothing left for me to say.
otherwise, another wonderful preview.
Advocaat will be making a huge mistake if the starts Malafeev over Akinfeev.
Regarding the fitness point, it is not accurate. Russia Premier League had a long break from early December until March.
Also numerous players are finally in top form and fitness after not playing at previous clubs. These included Arshavin, Pogrebnyak, Pavlyuchenko, (January transfers) Izmailov & Akinfeev (returning from injury), and Zhirkov (August transfers). This is the first time the elite Russian players have been peaking at the same time since 2008.
Here is an article I wrote with some points on Russia (some similar to here):
http://thinkfootball.co.uk/4-points-on-russia-ahead-of-euro-2012/
Apparently, Russia’s fitness coach doesn’t agree with your assessment…
“Of all the sixteen Euro participants Russia is the only team which has consistently trained just once a day – it’s about freshness instead of fitness,” he says.
Yeah, look again, he agrees with me: It is all about freshness because they are already fit.
And of course, except for Dzagoev & Akinfeev, if is a fairly old squad, with absolutely no CB depth. (35 year old Sharanov)
A very impressive side. I still recall, back in 2004, the way Kerzhakov and Arshavin dismantled AEK before either came to wider prominence. Those two in tandem can be near unstoppable. However, contrary to their qualifying statistics, their defense appears to be a weak link. In a friendly against Greece, they nearly copped four or five goals, despite officially conceding only one (and, need I remind anyone, this was against a side that typically produces very few clear cut opportunities in matches). Against Italy they showed similar frailty despite running out victors at three goals to nil. Not to mention only one team in their qualifying group posed a genuine threat in attack and that team was the minnow Armenia.