Euro 2012 preview: Germany
Germany's possible starting line-up. Klose may start instead of Gomez.
They didn’t win the competition, but Germany hit the greatest heights at World Cup 2010. While Spain embarked on a series of controlled but rather uninspiring 1-0 victories, Germany hit four goals past Australia, England and Argentina.
The problem was, those matches tended to be won with predominantly counter-attacking football. It’s a little harsh to criticise in this respect – you can hardly blame Germany for scoring early, the opposition having to come forward more and then Germany hitting them on the break – but the contrast in styles during their defeat to Spain in the semi-final was obvious. Spain were about proactively pressing and winning the ball high up, Germany wanted to counter.
But once Spain went 1-0 up, Germany could no longer counter as Spain weren’t leaving spaces at the back. Furthermore, they found it difficult to come out of their shell and press to win the ball. They had to become a more proactive side.
Pressing
Now, things have changed. Germany don’t sit deep in two banks of four – they’re more energetic, more mobile. They press more, forcing the opposition defence into poor passes, they win the ball in the opposition half, and are good at tactical fouls. “We are no longer focused on the fast transition from defence to attack,” says Philipp Lahm. “We are playing less on the counter. We now have players who are so good that we can dominate the game against any opposition.”
In addition to the increased pressing, Germany’s possession play is also superior. They hold the ball for long periods, using this period to rest, but they keep the tempo high and circulate the ball quickly. Jogi Low is particularly proud of the latter aspect – since he took over in 2006, the average amount of time each player spends in possession of the ball has fallen from 2.8 seconds to 1.1 seconds.
But Germany haven’t lost their ability to break quickly. That quick pace means they can still transfer the ball forward swiftly and efficiently. Spain remain the side to beat, but can be too predictable. Germany are the best all-round attacking side, at least on paper. “We have a good understanding in our build-up, and are quick to turn defence into attack,” says Mario Gomez.
Striker?
Gomez is one part of the greatest conundrum in the side. Should he start upfront, or should it be Miroslav Klose? It’s a classic situation of form against familiarity – Gomez has scored 80 goals in the last two seasons compared to Klose’s 32, but Klose has a superb understanding with Lukas Podolski in particular, but also with Mesut Ozil and Thomas Muller. Fitness concerns also play a part – Klose missed the final two months of the season with a thigh strain. If he’s 100% fit, Low will probably choose him for the sake of understanding and cohesion, but that looks unlikely and the more robust Gomez will instead play. He’ll have to score quickly, however, or Klose will return to the side.
With Klose, Podolski’s place is also less secure. He has consistently done well for Germany even when his club form has been poor, and he offers pace, direct running and a goal threat from the left. Andre Schurrle is challenging him for a place on the left, and in the final pre-tournament friendly over Israel, Germany were much improved once Schurrle replaced Podolski, but Low is likely to stick with the Arsenal-bound forward for the opening game.
Attacking
In the centre is Mesut Ozil, who stands a great chance of being voted the Player of the Tournament. He is perfect for this German side – he can orchestrate counter-attacks by directly dribbling with the ball at speed, but he can also unpick deep defences because of his superb spatial awareness. His off-the-ball movement, his overlapping runs and his amazing selflessness in the penalty box make him an ideal central playmaker, and if he performs to his maximum ability, he will have a greater influence than any other player in the tournament. On the right is World Cup Golden Boot winner Thomas Muller, who is disciplined defensively and clever with his movement.
Germany have great attacking options from the bench. In addition to the players already mentioned, there is new Dortmund signing, forward/winger Marco Reus, who would prefer to take Muller’s place, Dortmund’s other wonderkid in Mario Gotze, who could play in any of the three attacking positions and offers great speed and dribbling ability, and Toni Kroos, who could fill in for Ozil – but is more likely to be seen in one of the deep-lying roles.
Double pivot
The first choices for those positions are again Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedira, who were united for the World Cup after the injury to Michael Ballack. Now, Ballack is out of the picture and these two are very much established in the centre of midfield. With the continued shift from a counter-attacking side to a possession-based team, their roles have changed slightly – they’re forced to make sudden runs to connect midfield and attack and provide another attacking option. When they did that two years ago it was generally as part of a direct attack, now the runs come as a more gradual part of the build-up play.
They move forward in turn, and seem to take their positioning from Ozil – if he’s to the right it’s the left-sided midfielder who moves forward, and vice-versa, keeping a triangle in the centre of the pitch with one player becoming the holder. Khedira is generally more defensive, and now Germany press more, he often has to cover a large amount of space ahead of the back four. Kroos, Lars Bender and Ilkay Gundogan are alternative options.
Defensive worries
Germany’s problem is at the back. Well, it’s actually two problems. First, their best left-back and best right-back is the same player, Lahm. He’s comfortable on either side and doesn’t seem to mind switching at short notice, and Low has taken a while to decide which flank to field him on. Now, with Dortmund’s Marcel Schmelzer disappointing for the national team in his left-back position, it seems Lahm will play on that side. However, Bendikt Howedes of Schalke hasn’t been great at right-back either, so Jerome Boateng (a centre-back for Bayern, though a right-back earlier in his career) will fill in. He and Lahm could, in theory, switch sides.
Second, they lack a sturdy centre-back partnership. Holger Badstuber has continued to improve and looks a certain starter in the left-sided centre-back role, but Mats Hummels hasn’t brought his Dortmund form to the national side, and Per Mertesacker has been injured for the last few months. He also lacks mobility, which is a real option with Germany playing much higher up the pitch, and getting less structural support from the midfield. Mertesacker’s experience seems likely to get him a starting place, but Germany will be troubled by balls played in behind the defence. Having moved from being a counter-attacking side to a possession side, they’re now most vulnerable to counter-attacks themselves.
Conclusion
Germany were very close to Spain’s level two years ago, and while Spain have lost a couple of key players, Germany have improved. Technically and tactically they might be as good as Spain. They lack that experience of winning, although that could be turned around into a positive – they’re still hungry for success, and this time around, having been knocked out by Spain in 2008 and 2010, they might just win the competition.
Quick guide
Coach – Jogi Low
Formation – 4-2-3-1
Key player – Mesut Ozil
Strength – Pace, energy and an excellent squad
Weakness – Uncertainty and a lack of a solid unit at the back
Key tactical question – Klose or Gomez upfront?
Key coach quote – “They are desperate for success, and simply love coming together to play high-tempo attacking football.”
Betfair odds: 4.3 (10/3)
Recommended bet: Germany to score the most goals in the tournament at 3.85
Further reading: James Tyler on Germany’s new identity, Ulrich Hesse-Lichtenberger’s Tor!: The Story of German Football
Mertesacker over Hummels is a genuinely baffling decision. Its the kind of choice that makes you doubt whether Germany are going to go on and emerge champions.
Outstanding previews btw, ZM.
It kind of makes sense, though – Mertesacker is not only tried and proven, but a solid passer who keeps things simple. This comes in handy when pushing up and trying to keep posession, whereas Hummels’ role at Dortmund is often some kind of quarterback. Sure, he’s mainly there to defend, but time and time again this season he has played excellent long balls perfectly placed for the striker or winger to immediately creat a chance. He has to adjust his game quite a bit to fit into this Germany side whereas Mertesacker knows the style by heart. I can certainly see how Löw thinks that introducing Hummels will force most players to adjust to his way of playing, which might not be that great of an idea right before a major tournament.
Hummels has been unable to adapt outside of the BVB-Bundesliga-bubble. His one good performance for Germany came in the U21 Euro final playing as a holding midfielder. For the seniour side and for Dortmund in Europe he usually struggled and even his best outings were rather uninspired. Benching him makes perfect sense.
Why Jogi seems to prefer Mertesacker to play alongside Badstuber I’m not sure though. The guy has been mostly poor for Germany for years now as well. Boateng who usually partners Badstuber at Bayern or the extremely dependable Hoewedes seem the better choices ( although one of them will have to play right back ).
Personally I’m amazed Hoewedes receives so little attention in general. He’s the kind of player who can turn a decent defense into a great one, just remember Arne Friedrich in 2010.
Hummels plays the long balls that Löw doesn’t like. I think it’s like sga said: Merte keeps it simple.
But up front I think ZM will be wrong and Klose will start. Gomez, doesn’t matter how often he scores, has an awful first touch and Klose is much better when it comes to pressing, hunting the opponent and interplay.
Strange thing about Götze is, that Löw often uses him as a sub for one of the defensive midfielders and not for Özil.
Germany has a much better bench than in the past, but we’ll see who will come in on regular basis (Kroos, Götze, Reus; I think). Also, Löw has not that many defenders, hope there will be no injuries. Positive: Most players are able to play more than one position.
If Hummels hasn’t gelled with the NT there’s no point forcing him into- thats a disaster waiting to happen. Neither Freidrich nor Mertesaker were(are) great defenders yet they were a generally very good partnership. Sometimes in defense, experience and assuredness trumps individual ability.
The only thing I worry about is the lack of pace from Mertesaker-Badstuber. Freidrich wasn’t a greyhound but he was quicker than either of those 2.
I second what you wrote, and I think Friedrich was always a little unterrated. He was solid and hard working in many international games, and he was able to play right pack and center back. Not Spectecular, but that’s what you want from a defender (most of the time and most of the teams).
Yes pace could be a problem, mut Mertesacker is good at positioning (maybe he plays like a sweeper). and I think Löw knows that the new style with more pressing will/could be more vulnerable at the back. But he don’t want a defender that hits the ball long down the field where the opponent wins it easy.
Nice to see a familiar name, remember your replies from WC 2010 :]
Agree with the assessment up front, Klose will start.
There is a good chance as well that Schürrle (for Poldi) and Reus (for either Klose or Müller) will see more minutes than Gomez. Their speed make them great subs for late in the game, and especially Reus’ season has been spectacular. Arguably the player of the season in the Bundesliga.
Overall, Germany’s midfield is just fantastic, any players currently slated for the bench could be thrown into the lineup without any worries. This is huge difference to WC 2010, where the lack of Müller vs Spain heavily influenced the game as Löw ended up having to play Trochowski instead.
As with everyone else my only worry really is the back four. Badstuber has improved significantly, but as has been pointed out there are question marks behind his potential partners. Lahm has been steady as always, but Boateng’s lack of offensive stride may actually hinder Müller, who excelled when linking up with Lahm during Wc 2010.
As mentioned by Michael, the possibility to see Boateng switch sides with Lahm is very much an option to provide additional cover for Podolski and create more options for Müller.
“Nice to see a familiar name, remember your replies from WC 2010 :]”
Is that positive or negative?#
Schürrle, i nearly forgot him (uhhh).
.
Agree that most likely Klose will start and that what matters is not the scoring form but Klose’s footballing intelligence, hard work and movement off the ball. The reasons behind Germany’s success were not just the speed of movement but the movement and intelligence of players like Klose, Oezil and Mueller.
However I would go for Hummels rather than Merte. Not only that Merte lacks pace but he’s also lacks match practice too. Merte’s strength always been his footballing brain but often his mistakes and positioning have led to goals or chances to opponents.
Hummels actually played well for Germany though in some games he was below par. Perhaps playing with Badstuber, who is more offensive minded than Hummel’s partner Subotic at Dortmund, could be the cause.
I believe that Hummels could contribute significantly to Germany by opening up play with his diagonal passes and by stepping up to the defensive midfield area to dominate the possession.
If I had to choose I’d say Hummels and Mertesacker. Despite his lack of pace (however hilariously overstated it may be) his positional awareness and his composure are an invaluable asset in a place where, as ZM pointed out, they lack true cohesion as a unit.
Agreed, his alleged lack of pace is incredibly overstated. At WC 2010, for example, he had the same top speed as Wayne Rooney. It certainly didn´t hinder him to defend against Argentina with all their pacey offensive players. Nobody called John Terry useless, who is a good deal slower than Mertesacker. I think people just feel he´s been around forever, and are simply eager to see fresh blood in that position, while forgetting that he´s 28, which is considered young for a CB in some parts of europe. He´s not world-class, but he´s smart, fair and reliable.
It was also fascinating to read how most papers gave Mertesacker undeservedly low grades, when I thought he played quite well and most Arsenal fans I talked to were also happy with his performances.
“Nobody called John Terry useless”
Come again?
haha
I mean at 28. Even back then, he was slower than Mertesacker is today. The only concern for Mertesacker is how long he´s been injured. Regardless, it´s potentially suicidal to play two 22-23 year-olds who haven´t even played 3 matches together at the tourney.
Hummels is over eager. He plays too much long balls, and postioning is very poor, he makes up for it with his athleticism and is one of the fastest CB along with Boateng in the NT. However Hummels is the best set piece threat for Germany, very good with the headers and has just scored a header against Switzerland. I am not too worried with Badstuber – Mertesacker combo, as Badstuber had played excellent with Van Buyten (and with Lahm and Boateng coincidentally) during Bayern’s most defensively stable period which won 11? consecutive cleansheets.
Because of his speed and offensive-mind, I wonder about possibly trying Hummels out on the left flank. I know it won’t happen, but I wonder why this hasn’t been discussed when moving Boateng and Howedes has. Personally, Hummels – Howedes – Badstuber – Lahm… if a combination of that could be made to work as the back 4, I would not have any real worries.
I also agree with you. People seem to really underestimate Badstuber and how much he has improved. I think him and Lahm are the only two guarantees in the German back 4. The rest is down to form, cohesion and tactics.
Re: Double Pivot.
Low also said Gotze could play the number 6 role!
he did not only say so, he actually tested it in that two friendlies… so far not really convincing. The better replacement for deep lying playmaker for me is gündogan, despite his youth an lack of experience.
kroos worked okish there as well, be he tends to play a little which makes him more of number 8 in between defensive midfield and the offensive playmaker. With kroos, possibly paired with schweinsteiger germany tends to play more of an 4-1-4-1, which schweinsteiger being the only one in defensive midfield. Don’t be surprise to see this formation against more reactive teams.
Excellent article. I am a little bit worried about Özil’s form/energy levels/signs of fatigue. He would have to be truly awful for Löw to switch him out though I assume?
he is not replaceable one to one, but i mean the like of kroos, müller, götze and reus all can play that role with quality as well if needed.
It is a great quality of this german side, that almost everyone can be replaced almost without loss. Also a lot of players play multiple positions equally good, which might even result in in-game switches of shape without substitutions
Löw also mentioned that he thought that Reus could make a good center forward because his ability to turn on the ball is so good. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Germany play without a true #9, especially since Gomez and Klose are the only center forwards.
Thats a good idea actually, Reus could be a great option for up front. I think Germany facing a striker crisis right now, as Klose is unfit and Gomez doesn’t offer much in build up play and tends to choke on the big occasion. Reus would offer good interplay and a finishing touch to moves, it would be a big call for Low though.
it should also be mentioned that he played a strikereske role on club level, so he is not completely unfamiliar with that. he could give germany some kind of false nine element, in case Klose doing get into shape in time. But knowing Klose he will be in shape, when the games begin, since he always did and it is in poland, his country of birth. Germany will start with Klose, unless there is some kind of injury in the next few days.
Although Mertesacker’s lack of playing time is a worry, we should be careful not to regard things through Premier League tinted spectacles – people did that with Helder Postiga for Portugal in 2004 and it came back to bite us on our collective ass. Mertesacker was superb in 2006 and solid in 2008 and 2010 too. I echo one commenter’s view on Ozil though – he does look a little fatigued and there will be less of the surprise element from him this time. German friends I have spoken to think that Klose is going to start.
Excellent preview. For me the best squad a the euro’s, they have so many options, that really it will be about playing the right players at the right time.
Their defense isn’t settled which could be a worry, with Badstuber and Hummels not having much playing time together. I actually think Badstuber and Boateng would be a better partnership, as they have played together for Bayern and are both good in possession. But Boateng looks to be moved to RB, where he should perform admirably. Hummels is a great CB, but I’m not sure if he suits Badstuber, as they both like play aggressively with a partner that covers for them (Boateng is good at this). Lahm will help settle the defense however with great leadership and defensive ability.
Their midfield is excellent, with Khedira breaking up play, Schweinsteiger controlling the game and Ozil providing superb creativity from midfield. Then they have options to replace each position and still comfortably beat most sides.
In attack, they have a lot of options. Podolski will offer a threat from the left with Schurrle a great option off the bench (though I would prefer him to start). Muller will also provide a threat from the right as well as great movement to help bring others into play, though he might miss Lahm motoring forward on his side. Again as ZM said Reus will offer a good threat off the bench.
The biggest worry for Germany is upfront, Klose is the ideal option but is clearly unfit. Gomez has a great goalscoring record this season, but he doesn’t offer much help in build up play and has a habit of choking on the big occasion – I wouldnt back him to score in the later stages.
Germany should have a good goal threat from around the team to not have to rely on Gomez, and their dominance in possession should mean their defense isn’t tested too much. I am backing them to get to the final, whether they win it will be down to who they face.
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Schürrle is not likely to start, and i think he is more of a perfect Joker. He tends to move inside and Podolski offer more width. Two different types of Players offering even more possibilities to the german team…
Both are good goal threats, I just think Schurrle is in good form right now and perhaps deserves a place more than Podolski – who has been poor for Germany recently, though always seems to pick up form for tournaments
I think the joker label for Schürrle is premature, as he didn´t really have a chance to prove his worth as a starter. Fact is, he pretty much always delivers when given a chance, so I see no reason to believe he can´t make it as a starter.
Poldi is the only left footrd player on the left after lahm switched back. For tactical reasons, Poldi will start
In always thought Lahm was two footed, he always seems so comfortable on either foot to me.
Lahm stronger foot is definitely the right one. When playing on the left side he usually cuts inside. Classic example are the first game of the WC 2006 against Costa Rica, with this fabulous goal. Also the game against Turkey at the Euro 2008. You hardly see good crosses from him when one left.
Schürrle deserves the starting XI, but who ist the Joker than? Schürrle proved himself worthy in this role, and Podolski is a good Starter. But it’s up to Löw
I really enjoyed this bit “since he took over in 2006, the average amount of time each player spends in possession of the ball has fallen from 2.8 seconds to 1.1 seconds” great run down
Germany go into the Euro 2012 as one of the favourites, being one of the most successful nations and picking up the prize on no fewer then 3 occasions in ‘72, ‘80 and ‘96. They qualified with a 100% record collecting 34 goals on the way, only bettered by their arch rivals Holland who got 37. Germany are the gun slinger’s of the Euro’s, letting off 87 shots on their way to the big event.
As a german citizen I’m truly impressed by the depth of information you have about the german national squad. Good work!
Overrated side. Özil, Lahm and an in-form Schweinsteiger (which he totally isn’t by the way) are the only players I consider world class in that starting lineup. Boateng and Mertesacker are rather dodgy. Khedira is a water carrier. Nothing special and infinitely inferior to a modern defensive mid like Busquets. Podolski’s level is about right for a side like Cologne, a Bundesliga relegation candidate. His footballing intelligence resembles Balotelli’s actual intelligence. And Gomez has the touch of a rapist and needs like 10 chances to convert one as the CL semis and final showed. The rest are talented but totally inexperienced players and this inexperience was most obvious in Dortmund’s CL campaign this season. Löw’s boys annihilated the 2 most unorganised (and arrogant, see Maradona’s remarks about Müller) sides of the 2010 World Cup on the break and got totally outplayed by Spain who didn’t even play a good World Cup overall. Meh. This time Özil and Co. won’t destroy anyone by 4 goals since all sides now know what to expect and they’ll just park the bus as they do it against Spain since after 2008. And all of a sudden the free-flowing German attack will struggle as much as Spain’s attack does against all those parked busses. See the Israel game from a few days ago.
overrated maybe, but which side has to be ranked higher? Spain, possibly the Netherlands, a huge maybe on Italy, and some chances for France… despite that who? Also as ZM remarked style has changed since the world cup, because it was anticipated that other teams might park the buses. Potential is huge, what they make of it is another story
Well Spain din’t destroy any team 4:0, but they destroyed (or just won) 1:0 and took the world cup home. I think that’s what the big teams want. Play good (not most beautiful, but good) and win.
Well, that “overrated side” has come in either 2nd or 3rd in the last 3 competitions and has 6 or 7 starters from a club that’s reached 2 out of the last 3 Champions League finals. Not only that, but they also play the most entertaining football in the international game.
The media coverage regarding the Israel game has been grossly misleading. Germany created a good dozen sitters and would have won by 5 or 6 on another day. Not exactly what I’d call a struggle, although the opponents at the Euro will be a lot stronger of course.
I can’t believe that anyone would pay attention to pre-tournament friendlies. The players are trying to avoid injury at all costs and half the friendlies come at the end of the intense training buildup to the competition(so players are exhausted). If you want to see what happens when a team goes 100% in these stupid games, just look at England and the injuries they picked up. This is why most sides that are in the Euro’s set up friendlies vs minnows(or thereabouts)- few coaches wants to play a competitive-type match before the competition(mainly for avoiding injuries but also in order to keep morale up with routine victories).
Podolski scored 43 goals in 97 games for the national team. That’s a better record than Rooney’s, Torres’, Ribery’s and even slightly better then van Persie’s.
I also believe Germany is overrated, but that does not make the rest of your commentary any less asinine. You have clearly decided not to burden yourself with actually backing up your points. Unfortunately, you happen to be in a position where your audience need convincing.
Also, disparaging Germany’s World Cup opponents? That is a classic.
i totally agree! also spain are way overrated. they just won the WC becoz they were lucky. A bunch of 1-0 wins, with a lil luck north korea would have gone all the way to the trophy and finally got the credit they deserved.
I personally fancy both Klose, because of his International experience, and Reus, because of his great season, to start. Gomez, and Mueller on the bench for me.
The “Hummels has been poor for Germany” argument is a myth. He had some fantastic performances against Brazil, Uruguay and Austria to name a few. Those that were questionable came under particular circumstances that any defender, and all defenders, struggled under. The fact is that Löw has a particular preference for certain “types” and an order that he simply doesn’t want to risk and upset. He is a pretty conservative manager in that sense.
Mertesacker has been slated in England this season, he’s been quite poor to be honest, but whenever I’ve seen him for the Germans, he’s always been decent. That said, he’s still the weakest player in that team.
The Germany of WC 2010 were such a joy to watch, and that pains me to say as an Englishman. Schwiensteiger just absolutely class, Klose’s fantastic movement and Ozil’s incredible movement,positioning. One of my favorite teams of recent years.
If they play their best game they can definitely win this thing. But let’s not forget that it is one of the youngest teams in the tournament.
I don’t think Podolski or Müller will lose their starting spot. Both players deserve it for the way they played in previous tournaments. Müller scored in the CL final 2 weeks ago. I think Jogi will stick with Podolski and Müller in the starting XI, he knows they won’t crumble under pressure.
Reus and Schürrle could be great supersubs. Schürrle scored 7 goals for the NT so far and 4 of them came after the 80th minute. If things are not working out, they could be ideal fresh legs to come in after 70 minutes and push against a tired opponent.
As for the defence. Hummels himself said that he had to adapt to the NT. And so far, he had showed his class in games with the NT but he has struggled too.
The first 2 group games will be very interesting. With Portugal and the Netherlands struggling in defence too, it shoudn’t be too boring.
Great preview about a great team. I traditionally don’t like Germany [still haven't forgiven that 4:1 win against Yugoslavia in Italy '90], but I almost want this team to win the EC. Really great deal of good players, lots of options. I still think Spain is better, in theory, but I also think Germany is hungrier and both mentally and physically in the better shape. But, the problem might be that this will basically be the first tournament in which this generation is a favorite in any match [except against Spain]. Pressure might play the part, and this is the youngest team Germany has ever had on a big tournament.
Will certainly be entertaining to watch.
I hope Reus will get more playing time. Never really rated Podolski that high, but he does usually play well for Germany.
Yogi Loew has, if for the final minutes of the Switzerland friendly only, tried one of the Bender twins as right-back. The TV commentator said it was Sven, but I was convinced it to have been Lars – difficult to tell though, he was hardly in the picture.
Anyway I think Lars should be considered for that option. He did play that position at 1860 intermittently. His tactical awareness, his defensive prowess and ability to go forward do make him a great 6 or 8, that’s where he was needed more at 1860, so he did not make a permanant switch to right-back. But in the Nationalmannschaft the 6 and 8 positions are occupied twice over, so he could bring his qualities to the table as a right-back. I have a feeling he could play really convincingly there and I would prefer him above Höwedes and then Boateng in this position. Go on Yogi, you know you can take that dare.
Hi all,
I don’t believe, as ZM does, that the key tactical question is “Klose or Gomez”. The key question is IMO, to what extent Germany is able to maintain their “new”, more proactive style. They have not been tested by really strong sides in competetive matches for two years now, and the style that did work well for them was counterattacking.
Other key questions:
- Will Schweinsteiger be fit enough to play a determining role? Since coming back from injuries a couple of months ago, he’s not been playing as well as he used to. For a player like him, fitness is paramount. If he’s not fit enough, Kroos, Gündogan (both offensive minded players) or Bender (defensive minded player) could replace him.
- Will Müller find his goalscoring abilities again? In comparison to Reus, he hardly scored this season. And Goetze is a creative option in that position.
HG
well the Klose vs. Gomez thing is kind of important, but Reus does even offer a third option. If get in form in time, Klose is a save starter, and all we know (from his past especially) indicated that he will.
I definitely see the Schweinsteiger case as more urgent. Although Schweinsteiger’s game is not so much about the physical aspect, his last few months have been a bit poor for some reason. His passing ability is only matched by Xavi and Iniesta. I think he can be replaced if needed by Gündogan as the most likely candidate. Kroos has difficulties when being the only deep lying playmaker (he usually plays between that position and Özil’s) and L. Bender is more like a back up for Khedira. That being said, I think a not 100% Schweinsteiger still is good enough to do the job, he intelligence is not diminished and as I said that is more important than his physic. The only trouble could be the moral of the Vize-Bayerns effect, but there still is one title to gain and he should still be hungry.
Reus and Götze are absolutely brilliant despite the latter hardly having played this season through injuries, yet Müller in my mind still has the edge in terms of positioning and his runs into open space. Both Reus and Götze come more from their dribbling ability but Müller really reads the game well (think of pedro rodriguez at his best). Also Müller’s poorer scoring record partially comes from him having to sit on the bench for Robben, as Kroos was occupying the place in OM and Robben as right winger. Also Reus played as a stiker/forward for most of the season while Müller was used as a winger or OM and it is harder to score from these positions. It surely wasnt his best season, but considering him a starter, simply because he is amazing in finding space, doing brilliant runs and linking up superbly with Özil and Klose
Muller scored in th CL final where everyone else failed. He is a goal threat from start to finish, probably the only person in the front 4 who can maintain that intensitiy throughout the match.
Fact : German first 11 come from only 3 different clubs.
Real Madrid (Ozil, Khedira), FC Bayern (Neuer, Badstuber, Boateng, Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Müller, Gomez) and Arsenal (Podolski, Mertesacker).
Or from six different clubs. And I am not trying to include someone totally out of the picture here.
Real Madrid (Ozil, Khedira), FC Bayern (Neuer, Badstuber, Lahm, Schweinsteiger), Schalke (Höwedes), Dortmund (Hummels, Reus), Arsenal (Podolski), Lazio (Klose).
podolski is still a kolner…
and Reus still a gladbacher
It seems unlikely that Boateng, Mueller and Gomez will all sit on the bench. Gomez probably will once Klose’s fit, though. At least from the start. That might change as the tournament continues, but Loew is a tad conservative in his selection.
We’re probably not going to see any Dortmund players unless they’re substituted in, or someone gets injured:
- Löw dislikes Hummels’ style of play (long, precise opening passes to wingers and/or striker), favoring safe, short and low passing as provided by Badstuber, Boateng, Mertesacker.
- Schmelzer needs a winger ready to help on the defense, like Großkreutz on the club team. Podolski is possibly the player with the least defensive ability on the team (other than maybe Gomez) – so as long as Podolski plays, Schmelzer is not going to get a spot on the team.
- Götze has been injured (and is a little overweight, too) and has recently been (unsuccessfully) fielded as a defensive midfielder by Löw, to the puzzlement of football fans in Germany.
- Gündogan can be an option for the defensive midfielder position, but Schweinsteiger/Khedira/Kroos/Bender all range ahead of him.
With Bayern fielding the vast majority of expected starting XI players (predicition is probably spot-on with the exception of Gomez, whom I expect to be replaced by Klose), we can expect a cohesive team focusing on controlling the match through superior possession. Though scoring 4 goals a game cannot by expected, the offensive quality of Germany’s offensive midfielders and strikers cannot be understated. However, as the playstyle will be very closely related to Bayern’s style during their 2011-2012 season, opponent teams have examples of succesful counterplay readily available, with Dortmund’s three consecutive victories against Bayern as well as Champions League material.
Possible weaknesses include questionable form on Schweinsteiger, who didn’t seem on top of his game during the second half of the 2011-2012 campaign, as well as the form of several previously injured players, especially Klose and Mertesacker. While quality on the bench is high, international experience is pretty low in players like Reus, Götze or Schürrle. Furthermore, Bayern equalized “Neverkusen”’s famous 2001-2002 run of three second places in a single season, possibly weakening the mental state of Bayern players.
Badstuber´s biggest strength is his precise long passing. I´m not his biggest fan, but him and Hummels are similar CB´s, and he deserves to start alongside Mertesacker based on their performances for the team. I don´t think this has anything to do with whom Löw likes.
The advantage of playing like Bayern, is that I don’t think Portugal or the Netherlands can play like Dortmund, because both teams have questionable defences.
And after Vizekusen in 2002, Germany did reach the final of the WC and they had a pretty weak team then.
Anyway, one faux-pas and the tournament is over, the Euros are always harder to predict.
At the WC, they had the Australia game that launched them into the tournament, it’s more difficult now.
If they play their best game, they will be hard to beat, question will be if they reach that level.
I don’t doubt that Bayerns style will be very helpful against Portugal and Netherlands, but I don’t think it will work as well against Spain and France, that are a lot more disciplined and are great at putting pressure on the build up play. Schweinsteiger tends to struggle against intense pressure and makes costly mistakes (Kroos does as well). Thats where Dortmunds style of playing precise long balls to the lone striker or the wingers could work excellent, but I don’t think Löw realises that.
I am also not very trusting in Löws defensive strategy of avoiding contact in defense. Teams with precise passing and/or pace could use the time given to them to pick the defense apart.
Overall this appears to be a decisive tournament for Löw, because for the first time he actually had to make choices instead of just fielding the best eleven available. If he fails, his job could be at risk.
It’s really puzzling how even the most diehard fans seem to have missed the changes in Podolski’s playstyle completely. He isn’t the loose cannon he used to be anymore. These days he is alot more involved in build up play, combines in the attacking third and actually shows considerable tactical discipline, often stretching the play rather than gunning straight for goal.
Schuerrle has taken over the role of the “old” Podolski, being unpredictable and shooting from pretty much anywhere, but putting enormous stress on the left back behind him.
I’m worried about the hype around Germany. The first XI also may not be so predictable as the tournament progresses. I think Kroos may be the one to start ahead of Schweinsteiger in the first game thanks to the latter’s poor fitness, while Reus may play striker. Oezil also has fitness issues, and I expect Loew to settle on one of Reus and Goetze as designated Oezil 2.0 when the game gets to 65′ and further.
Löw trusts some players and has been rewarded for that. last example would be podolski and klose at the WC2010. they played a good tournament despite having a poor season prior to the world cup and even lacking match practice (klose).
it would be a big surprise for me if schweinsteiger, klose and mertesacker are not in the starting eleven.
germanys advantage over 2010 is a better squad, the bench is pretty good. especially the midfield is excellent, both in defense and offense.
they are more predictable because people wont be surprised as much as 2010 about their style of play. özil seems tired indeed. germany has an excellent preparation for the tournament so i guess they could be able to fix that and i think he will be more motivated at the tournament than in a friendly against switzerland where most of the team had never played together before. özils problems though is that if things dont go too well he hides and you dont see much from him.
germany biggest problems are the defense and tired players but then again spain also had players playing lots of games when they won the EC and the WC.
the issue with starting gomez is that it changes the game of the german side completely. he pretty much waits at the 18-yard-box and scores if he gets the ball. it’s not necessarily something bad but klose really fits in better with the team as his constant movement allows especially muller and ozil to use the space he creates and makes their overall attacking game more fluid and thus more unpredictable. i really prefer klose as a starter, maybe use gomez as a sub in the 80th minute against a deep defending opposition if the game is still tied.
100% agreed!
It seems like Löw considers to play Bender as right back and not Boateng.
Boateng got photographed being out late at night with a d-list blonde. löw was angry because of that and he wants to show him that he has alternatives. but löw also said that boateng has an “obligation to provide” so i think boateng will play. löw wont let someone who has practially no experience on that position play in a tournament against cristiano ronaldo.
flick, löws assistant said “we already have a starting formation in mind but we want to keep the players guessing because its good for their motivation”
i would love to see höwedes in that place. he was strong against switzerland.