Milan v Arsenal should be an interesting battle of very different formations and styles
Possible starting line-ups
A quick preview of tonight’s game…
On the left is the potential starting line-ups for the two sides. There may be changes to this – Arsenal have injury problems at the back and may play Francis Coquelin at full-back, while Milan’s three advanced midfielders can all switch around, as they did against Inter.
But the real interest here is not the players used, but the battle of systems. Milan play 4-3-1-2, Arsenal 4-3-3. This, more than most games, should be an excellent clash of styles. Milan are slow at the back and narrow in midfield – they are clearly vulnerable to pace down the flanks, as Tottenham demonstrated at the San Siro last year.
Arsenal should be able to get joy down the wings, in two separate ways – (a) attacking the full-backs at speed, and (b) by getting the full-backs forward to create 2 v 1s against the Milan full-backs. This will force the shuttlers on the sides of the diamond out to the flanks, will leave gaps in the midfield and then force the Milan trequartista to drop back and help out, making Milan a broken team. (Their trequartista is usually Kevin-Prince Boateng or Urby Emanuelson, players based around energy rather than guile, because Max Allegri is so concerned with joining the forward two to the midfield three. If that link man can be taken out of the game or pushed deeper, Milan have problems.)
The importance of attacking down the flanks is why it makes sense for Wenger to play two naturally attacking full-backs, if possible. Kieran Gibbs may not be fully fit, but it is vital to have good attacking players there, on their natural sides, rather than other options (Thomas Vermaelen is a centre-back, Coquelin and Sagna are right-footed).
Milan’s front two do little defensive work, but the movement of Robinho out to the flanks can stop the full-backs getting forward.
If Arsenal are taking lessons from Tottenham’s display last year, then it makes sense to sit back and counter. Arsenal aren’t particularly good at defending deep – Vermaelen and Laurent Koscielny prefer to push high up the pitch and force attackers away from goal, but Vermaelen must beware of giving space to Zlatan Ibrahimovic in behind, as he did twice in the 2-2 draw with Barcelona two years ago. Milan’s threat comes from individual quality upfront – to win the game, they need to excel in that department rather than tactically.
But Milan’s midfield aren’t at all creative on the ball, as explained here. The man who plays the most key passes in the side is Ibrahimovic, while the assist leader this season is Antonio Cassano, who has been out for four months. The possible presence of Alberto Aquilani would change that, but otherwise opponents can afford to let Milan have time on the ball – there’s no real need to close down.
The key player, though, will be Mark van Bommel, sitting deep in the midfield. As shown by the blue, orange and red highlighting in the diagram above, Arsenal should match Milan 3 v 3 deep in midfield, but van Bommel will be free. His influence on the side shouldn’t be underestimated – his calm, reliable passing sets the tempo. Arsene Wenger rarely varies his tactics significantly, but it would be worth him asking Robin van Persie to drop onto van Bommel, and effectively playing 4-3-3-0 without the ball. That would nullify van Bommels influence and also create more space for Arsenal to break into.
On that note, while Tottenham’s strategy at the San Siro worked well, they were fortunate that Milan’s deep-lying midfielder was Thiago Silva, a centre-back out of position and not particularly great at the ball. In the return leg, Allegri used Clarence Seedorf there and the Dutchman was given too much time on the ball, completing 20 more passes than any other player. Van Bommel needs to be watched, but if Arsenal can break past him and force him into an early yellow card, his defensive ability is severely weakened.
This is likely to be an odd battle – fascinating tactically by virtue of the fact it won’t be very tactical. In other words, these two coaches are quite inflexible, playing roughly the same system every week. The 4-3-1-2 v 4-3-3 match-up is very obvious – the former has an extra man in midfield, the latter is stronger down the flanks.
The clash seems to suit Arsenal more, and this performance will say a lot about them. Arsenal now play a system based around getting the ball wide and attacking quickly down the flanks – facing a narrow side that is slow at the back plays into their hands. With that in mind, if Arsenal don’t come out on top here, one wonders which of Europe’s big guns they would stand a chance of beating.
It might also be worth noting that Milan have had problems from balls into the far post (from both sides) everytime I’ve seen them this season.
Great preview! I always enjoy these more than game reviews, since it gives me things to pay attention to in the game that I maybe would’ve missed otherwise.
Your first link to the MIlan – Spurs game also points to Spurs-Milan btw.
Arsenal will play 4-1-4-1.I can’t see either side winning this game,it’s a draw.
Gazzetta say that Seedorf and Mesbah will play instead of Emanuelson and Zambrotta, that would add creativity in the midfield and pace down the left flank.
Given the relative pace of the Arsenal attack, I’m surprised that Walcott and Chamberlain are priced so high for first goal scorer (about 17 and 15 to one respectively).
Excellent article, thanks.
The starting line up does not seem right. KPB probably will not be starting. Seedorf-Ambrosini-Van Bommel-Nocerino seems to be a more likely line up in the middle. Stephan El Shaarawy and Maxi, after their strong showings last week, has definitely thrown their hats into the ring for a starting position too. I doubt that is going to happen though. But Pato is definitely going to get a look in as he has some CL pedigree
would you mind making a youtube account and talking bout tatics in front of charts or so? would be cool, but I enjoy it as it is already. Personaly, I don’t think that Van Bommel will start.
Yeah, good idea about the video analysis
I wonder why it is that most Italian clubs seem to be so tactically outdated. They don’t seem capable of dealing with modern formations (4-2-3-1/4-3-3), with width, or pace down the flanks. Their 4-3-1-2’s work in Serie A but only because everyone else is playing the same – surely there must be some reason the top clubs have not adjusted to European standards?
Tactically outdated? Only 6 of 20 teams in Serie A play a 4-3-1-2. Two of them are Milan and Inter. Napoli play a 3-4-2-1. So this comment / musing isn’t based on facts. Plus only Serie A has 3 teams left in the Champs League. 2 of the last 5 Champs Leagues were won by Serie A clubs (Milan with a 4-3-2-1 and Inter with a 4-2-3-1). Very outdated indeed. Check your facts next time.
3-4-2-1 and 4-3-2-1 are both narrow formations. Most teams in Serie A play narrow formations. So I stand by my original comment. It’s been proved time and again when they come up against English sides, with lots of width and pace.
Napoli is narrow? You need a reality check.
3-4-2-1 isn’t narrow, the way Napoli play is with pace down the flank using two wingbacks. Compact? Yes, but not narrow.
4-0. Outdated. Narrow. Lots of Width. Lots of pace. Etc. Etc.
The problems stem not from “narrow” formations but from weak fullbacks and ageing midfielders that cant cover with enough stamina or pace. Properly played with the right players, a 4-3-1-2 controls the middle, draws in the other team’s flank players, then exploit space down the width with an advancing fullback, a midfielder running wide, or a forward dropping deep and wide. The 2 forwards aren’t like in a 4-4-2 where they stick close to each other as a strike pair. Rather, they play much wider and double up as wingers as required. Milan was the better team against Spurs in the second leg and was unfortunate they didn’t manage to score, playing a 4-3-1-2. Previously, Milan also reached 2 Champions League finals in 2 years also playing a 4-3-1-2. At the start of this season they also managed to draw 2-2 with Barcelona at Camp Nou. Therefore it is not a problem with “narrow” formations, but rather the quality of players. And no, most teams in Serie A don’t play narrow formations.
Not to mention the fact that Barcelona’s shape is really quite narrow and plays a lot like a 4-3-1-2, considering how advanced and narrow the “wingers” often are and how withdrawn the striker is.
The problem with arsenal is that their midfield is also not creating enough. They have changed their system to attack down the flanks, but despite the obvious advantage of speed down the wings, Milan can turn the game if they defend deep. Without the ball they can shift into a 4-1-2-3 with boateng and robinho flanking ibrahimovich. This will lead Song to being free, however Milan can defend narrow and make it difficult for arsenal to play through them. They can then use the speed of their strikers and hit arsenal on the break.
Milan were threatened down the flanks, by Tottenham, but what they were beaten by was a counter straight down the middle of the field, as every outfield player except the center backs were playing near the edge of Tottenham’s penalty area (non-tactical point: the first link leads to the second leg).
i think it is a fallacy to state that thiago silva is not comfortable on the ball, true in comparison to seedorf who is a regular midfielder. Though we are talking about one of the best ball-playing centre backs in the world!
Also I’m rather shocked that not a single soul has mentioned the name “Alessandro Nesta”, his sheer class, and big game pedigree will go some way to deciding the outcome of this tie. Some have said the defence of Milan is old and slow, Zambrotta yes, T.Silva no, Nesta yes, Abate no. The difference is Nesta has a brilliance of positioning and timing that largely renders pace irrelevant. His performance against Messi in the nou camp proved this. A genuine GREAT.
In Milan we are saying he is maldini2. Excellent defender old age great brain. I am agreeing with the post you have made. Look for this video at his class. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34ar70QEk_E
*FORZA MILAN*
Thanks for the link, i enjoyed it very much!
Narrow and direct vs wide and methodical- should be a great contrast. I expect decent Arsenal possession, but Song will have to stand out and Arteta will have to drop back more than usual.
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AC Milan anticipated the problems they might have down the flanks. Hence, they only replaced the grass in the middle of the pitch.
How’s that for a tactic
and…..
arsenal goes for rosicky on the left wing…
That field should be illegal
Milan are killing them and arsenal seem to have no inclination to run down the wings on that horrible turf.
I looks quite amusing, but in the league it was actually the opposite for a while; fresh grass on the sides of the pitch, and completely useless in the middle. I honestly don’t think it was an intentional tactic for this game.
Also Boateng’s hairdo makes me want to slap him
Milan’s line-up hardly ended up lacking pace at the back! Antonini is pretty fast, Mexes and Silva are as fast as CBs come, and Abate is faster still. Also, the idea that Van Bommel can be negated simply by getting him a yellow card is silly – he’s a very good midfielder, contrary to his reputation, and even if he’s not the most precise tackler his reputation as a dirty player has more to do with his aggression than clumsiness.
Mexes is slow as feck and have somewhat lacking concetration and likes to move forward a lot (this can be a leathal combination if someone manage to put constant pressure on him and exploit his lack of pace when he moves forward), other then that Mexes dont really have any weaknesses, good in the air, strong and he is superb on the ball
but arsenal never played fast enough or exploited the wings enough to test the Milan defence, the wide players never attampted to stretch the milan defence….instead Arsneal tried to win by using there normal approch, passing around in the center where they normaly have a numerical advantage agaisnt most PL teams….big mistake
Well, seems to me Arsenal are playing with a rather high line and Van Bommel is pretty much left alone.
I have to agree with you : Arsenal have the weapons to beat Milan provided they don’t make those two fatal errors. Problem is, they’re doing them.
3-0 now hahahaha
Arsenal not handling pressing from Milan, and Ramsey looks totally confused. No strong sense in the team of how they are meant to build their attacks; they look like they’ve just met each other before the match. It is hard to know which big team Arsenal is set up to defeat, other than a moment of magic from van Persie they have very limited options…
Milan could easily have gotten 6
Wow. Wenger is just such a horrible tactician. What was written here on ZM was really obvious at the moment the draw was made. Yet Wenger chooses Rosicky over AOC. And we know that Rosicky will cut inside 9/10 times. Moreover he chooses Ramsey on the midfield. Ramsey always struggles against compact and physically strong midfields and provides close to nothing once the opponents (here a home team aiming for the best possible situation afte the first leg – a win) have the ball. It is almost scary how a top manager can have such a poor tactical understanding.
Your prediction’s looking pretty bad now. Milan are a powerful, experienced team with a superb forward line. Arsenal are infamous for being fragile – mentally and physically – inexperienced, prone to stupid, rash mistakes and having a poor defence. Milan tore Arsenal apart tonight.
In theory, Arsenal’s pace should have caused Milan problems.In practice it didn’t, for several reasons. Van Bomme was superb. Both full-backs had good games. T.Silva covered superbly. That’s the problem with using Tottenham last season as a reference point – Silva’s pace was missing from the back and Van Bommel wasn’t playing in midfield.
Rather than Milan being tailor-made for Arsenal, it was rather the opposite. Arsenal’s weaknesses were brutally exposed time and time again.
His prediction mostly looks wrong because Wenger has lost his mind.
Arsenal have played 433 every game this season bar some CC games. It is beyond me why wenger didnt play two wingers at any time in this game.
Perhaps Wenger wants to nullify Milan’s numerical advantage on the midfield by playing Rosicky instead of AOC
And ended up losing the midfield battle anyway and not having enough attacking threat on the wings (and when they did attack it was so slow Milan had plenty of time to drop deep and deny Van Persie any space)
But I think it would be a mistake to put much of the blame on Wenger for the defeat. Yes, poor tactics tends to make players perform poorly, but both midfield and defence were woeful, beyond what superior opposition in both numbers and ability would imply.
Andre Santos’s flair at the left-back position could have helped Arsenal in their build up tonight.
When it got to 3-0, my first thought wasn’t tactics, it was “RvP will leave, then”.
Milan have had a lot of problems against the other top teams in Serie A this year, when they have defended deep in numbers, and mostly played on the break. This is true for all the losses/draws against Napoli, Udinese, Inter and Lazio. Tottenham did the same in Champions League last year.
Arsenal, on the other hand, was playing much higher up the pitch, instead of sitting back and letting Milan pass the ball. I think it’s pretty obvious that this was playing right into Allegri’s hands.
Looks like a lot of complicated explanations to me.
The simple fact of the matter is English teams don’t play particularly good football.
I liked the article, but thought it was too focused on how Arsenal should approach the game. Nothing on what Milan should do to win.
(Yes, I know this comment is a little late, but thought I’d say that anyway)
I stopped reading when you said Thaigo Silva isn’t great on the ball.
He´s great for a centre-back, compared to defensive midfielders he´s not among the best since he´s just not used to it. It´s easy to hit balls accurately when you have 80 yards of space infront of you and not that much pressure. It gets much, much harder if you have 60-50 yards in front of you and there´s suddenly four players trying to close you down.