Why are Manchester United allowing so many shots on their goal this season?
Top of the league, unbeaten and best goal difference – not much to worry about for Manchester United so far this season.
Their defence can take a fair share of the credit for that – just five goals conceded from seven games is an impressive record, especially considering the injury problems in that department, and the fact that ever-reliable stand-ins John O’Shea and Wes Brown have left the club for Sunderland.
A peculiarity in United’s season so far, however, is that they have conceded the joint-most shots of any club in the league, 97.
Raw data
This may seem a statistical irrelevance, but the more you consider the type of clubs who concede a lot of shots, the more it seems bizarre. The other side to have conceded 97 shots is Bolton Wanderers, currently bottom of the league having lost their last six games. The three sides who conceded the most shots last season – Blackpool, West Ham and Birmingham – were the same three clubs that were relegated.
For a midtable club to be conceding the most shots would be interesting, for the best club in the league to be doing so is extremely odd, even given the relatively small sample size of seven games played. United conceded the third-least shots in the Premier League last year. From 3rd-best to 20th-best is quite a drop.
As the above graph shows, United have conceded 13 or more shots in every game. The dotted line indicates the average number of shots per side per game in the Premier League this season, 14.9 – which logically, is also the number of shots conceded per side per game. The game against Stoke is the only game where United haven’t allowed more shots than the average.
Below, we can also see that in three of their seven games, United have conceded more shots than they’ve attempted.
Position of shots
First, it’s worth considering precisely where the shots are coming from. Data from the first graph shows that 51.1% of shots are coming from inside the area, and 48.9% from outside the box. The second figure seems high – the average Premier League side is taking 43.5% of shots from outside the area so far this season.
Looking at the ’shots on target‘ conceded from outside the box is also interesting. United’s keeper has been tested 24 times from inside the area, not dissimilar to the average of 21.3. From outside the area, however, the figure is 18 times, much higher than the average of 11.5. Opponents are particularly keen on testing United from long-range (compared to other sides) – the position of the shots displayed below illustrates a further breakdown.
Why?
To return to the question – why? Or, to rephrase the question with the evidence from above, why are United conceding so many shots from long range? There are a few possible answers.
1. David De Gea’s perceived weakness from long-range shots?
After letting in Edin Dzeko’s long-range strike in the Community Shield, there was a lot of attention paid to De Gea’s ability to deal with long shots – in particular, his footwork was questioned. Meanwhile, Opta put out a stat that suggested he had a poor record from long-range last year in La Liga. Is De Gea weak from distance? In this case, the true answer isn’t really relevant – the key is that opponents think he is, hence why they’ve been peppering him from 20+ yards. He’s yet to concede a goal from outside the box in the Premier League.
2. Defensive injuries?
Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic have both been injured, whilst Chris Smalling and then Antonio Valencia have been played out of position at right-back. United’s defence has coped well in the circumstances, but there is still a question mark about how much of a solid partnership there is at the back, particularly when one centre-back needs step forward and the other needs to cover, as Fernando Torres’ goal at Old Trafford showed. Ferdinand and Vidic had that art perfected, although United have learnt to cope without the former.
3. No true holding player?
It’s arguable whether Michael Carrick is a holding player or not, but he’s certainly more of one than both Anderson and Tom Cleverley, Ferguson’s favoured midfield partnership so far this season. An interesting feature of United’s 4-4-2 last season was the use of one calm, intelligent passing player who would remain in front of the back four (Carrick or Paul Scholes) and a runner who would break forward (Darren Fletcher or Anderson). Ferguson was reluctant to use two passers or two runners together.
Cleverley is an altogether different player – more attack-minded than any of the players mentioned above, and the use of him and Anderson leaves too much of a gap between midfield and defence, with no-one screening. Carrick, whilst far from the tough tackler some still favour in that position, is very good at tracking and intercepting. United might well be a better side overall without him, but defensively they’re not as solid.
4. Rooney working less?
As Stewart Robson recently mentioned, Rooney’s run of form as a true number ten has coincided with him running less without the ball. He worked extremely hard when fielded wide as United were dominated by Cristiano Ronaldo, and did the same when used as a lone forward. Now, epitomised by his lax tracking of Sergio Busquets in the Champions League final, the start of United’s problems in midfield in that game, he doesn’t work as hard to close down. As a result, the midfielders have to do more work higher up the pitch, and leave gaps in behind.
5. More fluidity = less structure?
The Community Shield performance was a marked difference from United last season. In 2010/11 they were linear, well-defined and organised. Now, they’re much more free-flowing and flexible. As a result, they’re more likely to put together great attacking combinations, but also more likely to be opened up by opponents in midfield. The identity of players as a result of this change has also contributed – with a fluid system you’d favour Ashley Young and Nani over Park Ji-Sung and Antonio Valencia, but the latter two are clearly much more disciplined players.
Conclusion
Five possible answers that all have their merits. De Gea’s reputation as being dodgy from long-range is clearly a contributing factor, but the combination of the final three points, which are all interlinked, is also worth consideration. If Rooney doesn’t close down, then Cleverley and Anderson will surely be exposed by top-level opponents at some stage.
Perhaps the most obvious reason initially, the defensive injuries, seems less of a factor. Evans, Jones and Smalling have all impressed – the issue is higher up the pitch.
Still, United’s defensive record is nothing to worry about so far, and the improvement in attacking potential compensates for the question marks when United don’t have the ball. Still, we can’t rule out the odd game where United’s defence looks vulnerable, and they end up conceding a few goals.
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Why are Manchester United allowing so many shots on their goal this season?
interesting article. it’s a high risk strategy that united have adopted. the chances that norwich and chelsea created weren’t just long shots, they were open goals and one-on-ones. on another day they would have lost both these games – their luck ran out against basle.
no doubt they’ll win more than they lose in the premier league playing like this, but they’ve got no chance in europe if they don’t get a settled defence back and add some more defensive structure to their midfield
. the lack of signing of holding player looked worrying before and now its even more. sooner or later our luck will run out for sure
Jones will be the holding player.
no doubt.
I agree there – later in the season (in Europe) I expect we could see something along the lines of:
Rafael, Rio/Smalling, Vidic, Evra along the back,
with Jones in the hole and Anderson & Cleverley ahead.
Long term, it will likely be Pogba in the hole, and some variation in front of him.
Perhaps of more interest will be if SAF moves to more 4-3-3 with the likes of Young-Rooney-Nani infront of a midfield trio or stick with the 4-4-1-1 / 4-2-3-1 with Young-Rooney-Nani ahead of a central MF duo with a Hernandez/Welbeck infront. The attemps at 4-3-3 over the past two years have ended up coming across more as 4-5-1 with an semi-isolated Rooney/Berba rather than a more dynamic 4-3-3 of Barca, which of course is too high of a standard to expect. But Nani and Young are a pair of wide players who like to cut in, and Rooney is comfortable playing false nine. Where there seem to be more issues are the midfield playing comfortably in a 4-3-3 in the various needs: pressing, creativity, retention, etc. It’s a bit odd since it’s not an central midfield group that lacks in talent or skill… just perhaps not comfort or skill in the 4-3-3.
I saw Ferdinand come on as a sub for Anderson against Norwich, but admit I wasn’t paying enough attention to how that worked out formation wise. I assume that United didn’t play Jones, Evans, and Ferdinand as central defenders, so did one play as a holder? Did someone shift to right back so Valencia could move up? Anyone have answer?
Me thinks Jones went to right back with Evans And Ferdinand in the middle.
Yes, that was the case.
Nice article! Its curious.
pd: I want Bilbao’s analysis ZM
It’s here! – http://es.pn/qEbUeV
What’s Bielsa’s line-up when playing 3-3-1-3? Does he play Gurpegui as the 3rd center half or does he replace De Marcos with a center half?
OT: I also noticed the high shots conceded by Manchester United, although I did only see one game on TV and that was the very odd 8-2 “trashing” of Arsenal. Maybe they’re also pressing a bit more this season, forcing their opponents to shoot from far? Or even giving the opponent space in front of the box knowing the true capability of De Gea on long shots?
It’s just a strange Man Utd team this season, completely changing their style of play in 1 summer break.
why does articles like these make it up onto soccernet???? (since it’s on espn anyway)
i think it would markedly improve that website…
“Special to ESPN.com”
-might be exclusive.
I think Fergie’s just decided his side can stream-roller this league and outscore any team. Two flying wingers, Rooney and Hernandez will get goals anywhere. He’s probably right, they should be Champions in May, but that approach will get them nowhere in the CL and I doubt they’ll be able to adapt just for European ties. Fair to say the notion of effective holding midfield play has always eluded Ferguson (perhaps deliberately)?
Hm. I seem to recall Xavi, Iniesta, Mourinho and others rating Scholes suitable in the holding midfield role.
I don’t know how accurate it is to question Fergie’s holding player selection is. But did Xavi or Iniesta say Scholes was suitable for a holding role specifically? Given his tackles, I doubt that.
We’ve had a superb holding midfielder in Keano, and a very good one in Hargreaves. We will have another one soon in Pogba!!!
It seems Fergie is going for the risky strategy of “we’re going to score one more than you” a la Brazil which brings great football but as others have pointed out against a quality, well-organised outfit it could be a massive downfall. It’s interesting though as it’s not just Man Utd doing this, Man CIty and Chelsea both known for their defensive well organised strategies have both switched to a faster more attacking style.
It seems most coaches seemed to have seen Barcelona’s free-flowing attacking play and are trying to emulate this. What they seem to forget is Barcelona work incredibly hard without the ball and defend from the front. I remember reading an article quoting one of the Barca midfield which was something along the lines of, we never pass the ball more than 10m so if we lose the ball we never have to chase for more than 10m. With teams like Spurs who counter attack extremely quickly, or Stoke or Bolton who play the ball long you have to work extremely hard to get back and defend and it becomes near impossible to defend from the front.
All-out attacks with counter-pressing (using the numerical advantage directly after losing the ball to prevent the opponent from passing to free space) as the defensive measure is just getting hip but needs a lot of balancing. A nice current example is the German champion Dortmund, they trained for one year, dominated the league the next year and now after Sahin left they are back trying to achieve the balance once more.
Yah, check out the goals conceded numbers over the past few years. All top teams are conceding more, from a low of 15 goals conceded by Chelsea in 04/05.
04/05: Chelsea 15, ManU 26
05/06: Chelsea 22, Liverpool 25
06/07: Chelsea 24, ManU 27
07/08: ManU 22, Chelsea 26
08/09: ManU 24, Chelsea 24
09/10: ManU 28, Chelsea 31
10/11: Chelsea 33, City 33
11/12: ?
I think there is a few reasons:
1. As you have said, the two CM’s are leaving a lot space in behind them, and i believe this is more andersons fault, as the more experienced player, he should be playing deeper and controlling that space. This is why I still see carrick and Fletcher as the better CM partnership, they control the game more.
2. Rooney is playing as the link between attack and midfield, which he does really well, but he is more a striker than midfielder, he does close down well still i think, but he natural movement means he doesnt drop as deep as needed sometimes (as a natural CM would).
3. Which is more 1+2, Man U are playing more of a 442 this season as both strikers are playing deepish (rooney more so) and there really is just 2 CM’s trying to control possession. 442 does tend to leave space centrally, unless its a very defensive 442.
Re: point 4. The player profiles based on actual match data on http://www.whoscored.com have ‘defensive contribution’ for Rooney as a weakness.
Also worth pointing out that the game where United conceded the least shots (Stoke), is the game that was arguably the toughest.
Good article!. In my opinion the lack of a defensive/holding midfielder is to blame for the long range shots. Since the retirement of Roy Keane United is lacking of that kind of player. I think Carrick is a good passing one, but he’s positioning and tackling are poor. United needs better defensive midfielders.
I don’t think they will win the Premier League much less the Champions League. I think this team is way too unbalanced. They have great wingers and forwards, but their midfield leaves a lot to be desired. They don’t have a great holding player and there is no real creativity in there as well. You can’t really rely on Ryan Giggs to be your creative force from midfield. Any decent European team will pick them off.
Chelsea seem to be finding their form under AVB and really were the better team in their match up.
Not sure why they need ‘real creativity’ in midfield when they don’t play through midfield and have ‘great wingers and forwards’
That’s highly debatable. United appeared to take their foot off the gas after they scored their third goal against Chelsea. Only then did Chelsea get back into the game. Even in the second half, when Chelsea were the better team, United had many chances to score, including Rooney’s missed penalty, a second penalty denied when Cole fouled Hernandez, and Berbatov’s shot which was cleared off the line by Cole.
Chelsea really are finding their form now, as you rightly point out, but United found theirs long ago, and are sitting on top of the league table with a very healthy goal difference and victories over Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs already under their belts.
United are not relying on Giggs to be their creative force at all. To say there is “no real creativity” in the pairing of Anderson and Cleverley leads me to believe that you haven’t actually watched any of the games United played with this midfield combination. They were highly productive and have created many goals between them already.
I could be out to lunch, but I really believe this is all about Ferguson trying to find a way to improve in order to beat Barcelona. I really don’t think he is going to try and emulate them, but I get the feeling that he thinks the team needs more creativity in order to break open Barcelona (and potentially Madrid). The CL Final last year showed that ManU was very predictable, and easily managed. It is clear he has been working it through and trying to figure out a way to break them down, and I think this new found fluidity is a part of it. I think many of the points you raise are valid, and they will certainly have to work on their defense as they go forward, but I do think he is pleased with how much energy the team now have. I think that energy and unpredictability is important if they hope to beat a Spanish giant. So while many think this team could win the league but not CL, I think he is making his changes more so for the CL (since the EPL is easier to win for him anyway).
I agree with you, Ferguson knows he need to change United’s style of play, more fluidity, but not necessarily like Barcelona.
Other teams have already shown that the way to beat Barcelona is to follow Inter’s example in the CL a few years back (See the ZM article on this game and the Hercules game that drew inspiration from Inter). I think people are giving Ferguson too much credit assuming that all of these shots on goal are a part of his plan because it is my opinion that Manchester United have God and God alone to thank for their top place in the PL. Results with Chelsea, Norwich and even Stoke could have been far worse with the dangerous shots they gave up in the area.
Thank you God! Top of the league having battered everyone but Stoke (who had a helping hand from Peter Walton.) Thank you again God!
I hardly consider any win with the exception of Arsenal a battering. Chelsea tore through your back line repeatedly with Torres missing an open goal, Ramires missing from an effort that would have surely been in the back of the net had he left it for Sturridge, and Lampard firing wide from a volley in front of goal near the 6 yard line. By no means should United be a midtable team, but this delusion that they are top of the league and all is within their plan to overtake Barcelona must end.
agree with this. by far the article from ZM I have concurred the most(not the other articles are not right, just this is the one I feel I’d like to talk about the most).also agreed with Gooney. if this is the strategy against Barca, Man U will be tore apart easily allowing my early prediction. Have watched the Chelsea game If not Torres wasted one or two opportunities Man U would not play an easy game as it was shown by the score line.
I don’t think Chelsea really tore through the backline. They attacked a lot and got past the Man U defense 3 times. However, throughout the game,Jones and Evans, though they looked nervy managed to handle Chelsea despite being under relentless pressure. Compare that with Chelsea’s defenders who were sucked up marking Chicharito,leaving lots of space for Ashley Young to pull Chelsea’s defence out of shape. Smalling’s goal, though it was a close call was due to poor marking, if you looked at the analysis by John Dykes and his team of pundits(are they the pundits for Sky too? I don’t leave in the UK, but the TV station in my country uses Dykes and Co. for half and full time match analysis). Rooney’s third goal was poorly dealt with by Chelsea too.
Agreed that the Arsenal game was the only one where United dominated, but I think you are being a bit selective on your Chelsea points. As noted by other people above, United also had a stack of chances and the game could of finished 6-5. It boiled down to who had the better finishing. It was noted for its sheer openness and was in line with the perceived new style of play that United are employing this season.
Also, can you point to anybody anywhere that has said United have found the way to beat Barcelona and are now parading this plan to devastating effect in the premier league. Almost every person here has qualified their comments on United with the disclaimer that “this probably won’t work against Barcelona.”
Finally the delusion that United are top of the league is alarmingly deep-seeded. It seems everywhere I look it says United are top of the league…….
Agree with you too. Also, I think the midfield changes are about getting more mobility for CL play. Defending from the front is hard in EPL, but against a Spanish side with a slower buildup and shorter passing it becomes much more manageable (but not with Carrick). And, while Anderson doesn’t sit and shield his defense, he does cover a lot of ground catching and cutting off wingers and midfielders countering with the ball.
To go back to the point about Vidic and Ferdinand being out, this may be a big part of the openness in midfield, because it necessitates using Jones at CB. Could be that Jones was Fergie’s answer to anchoring the middle withou giving up mobility and attack-minded passing.
I agree as well. I suspect Ferguson has no interest in beating Barcelona with the Mourinho defensive template, but rather with a more fluid, less predictable attacking style that Nani, Young, Rooney, and Cleverly can play but Berbatov, Park and Valencia can’t (unless he’s a fullback providing width).
This is admittedly very speculative, but given the way Barcelona press high when they lose possession, I wonder if there might be circumstances where releasing Jones through the middle could be a useful attacking option against them. Or at least something to consider that could add an element of caution to Barca’s play(or the decision to play a less skilled player like Keita, for example).
If a central defender attacks in addition to the fullbacks, then the attacks can truly come from anywhere, and it’s even less predictable than the Rooney/Tevez/Ronaldo version of United.
God, this was not a Maurinho defensive template. Have you people not seen football before 2010? Did you not see the United-Barca semis? I remember United winning that particular tie. And I remember United using a “defensive template” 2 years before Maurinho did it. And United did not give up one goal, and relatively few good chances. Maurinho had nothing to do with it.
What is wrong with everyone?
This is not some weird strategy to beat Barca. Cleverly is a young, inexperienced, attacking player who is still learning when to go forward, and when to defend. Anderson is not exactly Makalele either. Ashley Young is not known for his tracking back, neither is Nani. Add a dash of inexperience and constant shuffling at the back, and most shots against is a result. Well there you go. Mystery solved. There is no super plan to beat Barca. United will not play Barca until late February at the earliest. And if they do meet, it will be for two games at most. And yet, all of a sudden United are already preparing for the mighty Barcelona in September already and risking their whole season just on a chance they will meet Barca again. Did you people not know that United play in the league one way and in the CL another way, especially away? Since about 2003. In the league United have always tried to play attacking football. These young players have shown good form, therefore they play. They keep winning, so Fergie sticks with them and this reckless attacking football (which is great to watch). But things will settle down. They will either learn to defend, or others will play. And no one rotates more than Fergie. When he changes things United’s style changes as well.
By March United will play differently than they are today. And you wont see this fluid reckless style in the CL.
(Seybold, this is not really directed specifically at you, I just read, Barca, Maurinho etc. one too many time in these comments. This post is a product of several other comments, not just yours)
United gotta be careful. A good attacking lineup win you games but a good defense win you titles..
Hope this trend goes on, can’t wait to see Charlie Adam and Gerrard line up long shots in their next game..
The midfield partnership is interesting, but the Cleverly/Anderson partnership only played the first 3 games, and united were fairly comfortable in all those game despite allowing shots on goal. more worrying are the games against Chelsea and Norwich, when United were carved open several times.
Both Anderson & Fletcher work best supporting a more creative player (Scholes/Cleverly/Carrick when he used to get forward), so with United trying to play a more aggressive game, both in Att & Def, but not having a real threat from Central midfield, allows teams to build from the DM position (also because of point 4), as it’s less of a risk to give away the ball there. Stoke don’t play this way, getting the ball out wide, which suits United somewhat (unless Valencia’s playing at RB, he really ins’t good there), and explains the lack of shots.
What would be interesting is if there’s a stat for clear-cut chances for each game. My guess is they’ll be higher after Cleverly’s injury. Also if Cleverly contributes defensively, I don’t know where I’d look for that information though.
A Football Manager fan from the ‘Clear Cut Chances’! I think the best stat is the shots inside the area, shown on the top graph.
I also log the match stats from the Opta/FourFourTwo StatZone iPhone app, which gives ‘chances created’ (which is like an assist) rather than just a pot shot. No real change in total shots, but those inside the area have risen from the first game with WBA: 2, then 3, 6, 6, 12, 5 and 6 against Norwich.
The available ‘defensive’ stats for Cleverley are mainly tackles, interceptions, blocks, clearances. In all these areas, Anderson was way ahead in the first 3 games.
Guilty on the Football Manager. That stat’s just so convenient in-game. Although I think I first heard it during an ice hockey match.
Thanks for the info. If you discount the chelsea march as an outlier, then then chances are a little higher. Maybe that just suggests Fletcher coming in and playing his way back into fitness is affecting the team. I hope Cleverly gets back into the 1st team though, the partnership with Anderson seemed to play to both their strengths. That and I believe attack is the best form of defence.
United seem to be trying to play a more proactive game. We retain possession, press high up the pitch, close down more (just look at how Nani now tracks back after losing the ball). We also have a centre back who marauds up the pitch on occasion! I believe that such a differing style to the functional pedestrian play preceding our current style will take some time to sit comfortably with everyone. I think this is why players like Welbeck, Cleverley and Jones were drafted into the first team.
The increase in shots conceded appears most marked in the “on target from outside the box” category. Players are unlikely to shoot under pressure, and even less likely to shoot on target under pressure.
The stats imply a lack of pressure 20-30 yards from goal. The lack of a holding midfielder or two is a compelling explanation, but it could also result from a defence which either starts too deep or retreats too readily. Both are perhaps traits of a defence and goalkeeper unused to playing together.
I agree that analysis of De Gea’s stats from La Liga may also have prompted it.
Of course, it may just be a statistical blip. Some relatively straightforward statistical analysis should clarify whether the difference between shots conceded this year versus rest of premiership average, and versus utd last year is statistically significant or the result of a small sample size. Can anyone help with this?
Shots from outside the area are very unlikely to score on average – so Utd would be happy to see that part of the stat.
Agreed. Tottenham were the first to try this naive “shoot on sight” policy against United, which, as ZM points out, has yielded exactly 0 goals in 7 games for United’s opponents.
Nice analysis Michael/ZM, I agree with most of the posters here that this formation (and Ferguson’s tactical nous) will be found out this season if they persist with the 4-4-2, just as it was last season. The point about midfielders playing high up the pitch because of Rooney’s lack of defensive willingness in his current role is a very salient point.
p.s. read the Bielsa analysis on ESPN, very interesting, I also noticed a slightly different style of writing there, as if you assume ZM readers know/understand certain terms and concepts that regular ESPN readers don’t.
Rooney could be the key to this, he is playing very high up the pitch now adays, and though his pressing is very good, he doesnt track back, which means the CM’s need to push up and make up the space. Rooney does cause man u some defensive difficulty, he avoids tracking runs, and doesnt drop deep enough to help keep possession with the other two CM’s. Tho he is all important to Man U’s offense, maybe doing this would harm Manchester United more than help.
I would add to Michael’s point on Rooney something that seemed to be popping up in ManU’s pre-season games and also in the Charity Shield when Rooney and Welbeck played together:
Welbeck was picking up a big chunk of the pressing duties, especially in the early parts of games.
This was especially noticable, and rather positive, in the game against Barca. Admittedly it was a exhibition and neither team rolled out their Best XI. But there did seem to be an concerted effort on Welbeck’s part to do the type of pressing that Rooney ran out of gas on in the CL Final, especially after Barca changed the starting pint of their build up from Sergio to Xavi. It intially seemed odd in the preseason game as one expected Rooney to play behind Welbeck, so a bit of pressing, and ManU to use Welbeck in a similar role as Henandez played in the Final with the alleged hope of speed taking advantage of Barca’s back. Quite the opposite: Welbeck deeper and chasing.
The positive of this is that Rooney didn’t seem to burn himself out, and when it came time for him to press a bit and give Welbeck a breather, he did seem fresh.
There seemed to be some of this in the Charity Shield as well. In fact, Micael point to i:
“The key was the positioning and movement of the front two. Neither stayed high up the pitch against the Manchester City centre-backs – Welbeck came deep, primarily to pick up Nigel de Jong, whilst Rooney played something of a false nine role.”
We didn’t see it against Spurs, perhaps because Kranjcar isn’t Luka.
But I think it’s something to keep an eye on if Rooney and Welbeck pair up more upfront, and especially against teams where SAF feels the need to distrupt the opposing teams holders. The game against Pool will be interesting as you would think ManU would like to put pressure on Parker to expose his limitations a bit, while the game coming up against ManCity could be interesting given Toure playing behind probably Silva and Nasri. It’s unlikely SAF will want Toure to go unpestered with lots of room to play in.
This will also be interesting long term as to how Hernandez will fit in relative to Welbeck. One wonders if Hernandez ends up becoming the Ole Gunnar Solskjær of this group: trusted goal scorer who is the #3 or #4 choice at foward behind Rooney and Welbeck. There are plenty of games to get into with injuries and SAF’s rotation system, but Rooney-Welbeck upfront or a 3 of Young-Rooney/Welbeck-Nani may be more effective.
at the first figure I see 131 conceded shots (not 97) – West Brom 16, Spurs 21, Arsenal 20, Bolton 22, Chelsea 22, Stoke 13 and Norwich 17…in that case, average number of conceded shots is 18.7
just a thought…Ferguson is trying something but he’s got it mixed up in my opinion. Xavi & Iniesta started in the 6 position (or 4, depending on how you see it), whereas Cleverly & Anderson started higher up the pitch. playing deep at a young age teaches you to alue poession, act quick & be accurate. being higher up the pitch you will take risk & adapt to being protected. as you say ZM, they’ll get exposed against top opposition
Great to have you back ZM, I never thought that 7 days would feel like such a long time.
In reality though, I think the only holding players United have are Carrick and Phil Jones. For the most part, I see the CMs in 442s as consisting of a holding player with good defensive skills and a runner who can link up with the attack and has more offensive characteristics. Both however, MUST be able to distribute the ball well and have good creativity in passing.
Fergie now seems to go for 2 of the latter type (more offensive) which as you mentioned in this article(and this article http://www.itv.com/sport/football/facup/news/zonal-marking-southampton-manunited-9267/ gives more attacking impetus, creativity, and fluidity, but has the risk of being overrun/exposed through the centre especially if one of the forwards isn’t tracking back as much.
Overall, it’s an ok strategy to use against smaller sides, but against the big boys, Fergie will maybe have to consider alternatives…
Great job as always, ZM
as for the request about Bielsa’s AB… well i’d really love a review over Luis Enrique’s Roma..
Is it anywhere around the net, ZM??
thanks, your reviews really help understanding football
Those citing United’s luck in these games are guilty of a very common mistake: namely, wilfully ignoring the chances United created but didn’t score. Chelsea could and indeed should have scored more at Old Trafford, but exactly the same can be said of United. They missed several relatively simple chances and, of course, a penalty. I wouldn’t for a second suggest this to mean that there isn’t a very valid point being made in this article – Norwich should have got at least a point, for example – just that it’s nonsense to suggest that the Chelsea and Stoke games were all about United being lucky.
Lucky is a very subjective word, I think the football pundits summed the Chelsea game up best when they described it as the game that could have been 6-6. The amount of chances isn’t as alarming as the quality of those chances and I’ll offer the chance in the Stoke game right after Nani’s goal as an example. There was a relaxed clearance out of United’s box which landed to Stoke who were able to almost effortlessly cut into the box and unleash a 15 yard shot which would have been a goal bar a brilliant save from De Gea.
What makes people think that United are going to play this adventurously in the CL. I think the Benfica away line up is probably going to be United’s away set-up. Also note that Carrick played in both games may be he is going to be favoured for Euro games.
Hi Zonal: Unfortunately this was one of the dodgiest posts I’ve read from you. Statistics are easily misused, especially given the widespread availability of programs like ms-excel (you’ve posted suspiciously excel-looking charts). The data should have been presented with standard deviations and confidence intervals. The appropriate test varies according to the question asked – for several here it would appear that the correct statistic is a t-test, which would test the hypothesis that the mean for one group (ManU) is significantly different at a given confidence interval from another group (the rest of the league).
The fact that ManU had a run of 5 games where they conceded more shots on goal than the league average sounds like a juicy fact, but the correct way to evaluate the claim that it is significant that requires the use of SPC (statistical process control), which has many tools to transform data to reveal events that are highly unlikely to be the result of chance. That approach requires quite a bit of data, though, and is a more specialized area of applied statistics so it is not for the layman.
Your comment that 48.9% from outside the box vs. 43.5% for the league average ‘seems high’ is a hunch, a gut feeling, a sense. You have not shown to what degree it is significant (or if it is at all), and therefore it shouldn’t be discussed as if it were.
If you care to make available the raw data, I’d be happy to run it through some of our applications to see if it supports your hypotheses.
Your a tool
David makes a reasonable point, even though it’s not very exciting. If we are to use statistics, we would like to know that the numbers we are seeing are significantly different from the odd streaks that chance produces.
If I toss a coin and it comes up heads 4 four times, is it a dodgy coin or have I not got enough samples? That is what statistics is all about. It’s a complicated and not easily-understood business, which is why you rarely see it in articles like this. Most of us struggle to understand the results.
I don’t expect ZM to fill his columns with detailed statistical analyses; it would reduce their readability a lot. However, it’s always good to ask yourself how reliable any statistics you see may be (even when the numbers are correct).
Jesus! I thought I was a geek…
One could learn that information in one semester of a basic-level statistics course. Whether or not that makes one a geek…
As a United fan, it’s not just the number of shots conceded that worries me, but the quality of the opportunities leading to them. Against Chelsea, Norwich and, most obviously, Basel we surrendered huge numbers of good opportunities, many of which were fluffed by opponents. As the season progresses, our luck will run out.
Brilliant analysis ZM!
Agreed. What happens at Anfield on the 15th? Surely Suarez and Kuyt will pick up from last year to try and create as much as possible. Does United try and stop this or do they just try and create more?
“Surely Suarez and Kuyt will pick up from last year to try and create as much as possible.” This may come as a shock to you, but Kuyt sucks and Suarez is vastly overrated (not to mention a cheating bastard). Liverpool are nowhere near the quality of United and it will shine clearly on the 15th. Vidic will be returning as well, the best defender in the world and United’s captain, so that will make the back line exponentially better.
You make some dangerous assumptions that will inevitably lead to you with your foot in your mouth.
As much as United concede many good chances for opposition, it become almost impossible to defend against United. Most of United defenders are good attacking, Very unpredictable passing and accurate shooting combined into one so scoring goal looks like steal candy bar from children. What should you do in this situation? You get to go attack and United defenders and midfielders allow you acres of space too so why not.
It have been pretty much open games so far and confident united player took their chances.
Very interesting contrast this season. Poor attempt by ZM to identify the reasons for Manchester United’s structural weaknesses this season. The main being the shift downward in the priority of midfield ; from the perception to dismiss the issue, especially domestically, because of the loss of Scholes. A tactical shuffle stemmed from a psychological perception.
You can’t say “poor attempt” and then follow it with that garbage, what does that even mean?
You mean the same Scholes who started all of 16 league games last season? Usually at home, and when others were fit, against weaker sides when United were pretty much guaranteed to control possession. That Scholes?
That’s why I said it was mainly a psychological effect. It would be similar if Zanetti retired for Inter, or Maldini/Costacurta leaving Milan. The unit suddenly became vulnerable, and shunned responsibility. The effect is two fold. Scholes was a custodian of United’s midfield creativity. His departure, has meant that Ferguson has freedom to peruse different solutions in an area he is deprived in. The effect is also subjective. Scholes as a solution is gone, his presence gone, his legacy… Hence for Ferguson himself it reduces the opportunity costs for experimenting with sub-standard players.
Put simply United have chosen to ignore the midfield. Once you put Anderson in it, that becomes an inevitability.
Ok what I mean is that the midfield problem magnified with the ensuing retirement of Scholes, and the feeling after the CL Final that midfield is the key area of focus, one that secures supremacy. However due to a number of reasons – financial being one (Sneijder saga), Manchester has chosen to defer the midfield option, choosing to put faith in youth – Cleverly, and experimenting with Anderson, who clearly is sub-standard.
What this has done is polarised the Utd. game. When they have the ball, it goes vertical, to the wings and fast. Nani, Young and Rooney, clearly are the trio which orchestrate the United attack – midfield has little emphasis – just pass it to Young or Nani quick.
When United don’t have the ball, they prefer the opponent to launch equally swift attacks, to get the ball back quicker, so they can start their own. In some form this is grossly underestimating the opponent who is allowed to come and ‘bypass’ the midfield, get their shots in, and give United the goal kick or possession through interception.
Now those are the effects. The cause has been to hide the fact Manchester has a massive gap in quality in midfield. This is not just my selective reasoning or the opinion of the mainstream football media. When Ferguson started the season this year he chose to optimise the assets he, has, rather than persevere with a 4-2-3-1, or 433, which he doesn’t. It is allocative efficiency, but it also puts United in grave danger, since they are exposing themselves to opponent attacks when they don’t have the ball. In many ways the loss of Scholes, and being outclassed on the grand stage twice by Barca, has given Ferguson a inferiority complex. He is giving his attack unwarranted freedom, to create havoc in the last 3rd. He is exposing his defence to recurring waves of pressure. The space in between, he pretends to forget.
You- ZM have produced a list of reasons, illuminated by statistical evidence, which conveniently pay no attention to the inner core. The only one which bears slight relevance is the absence of a DM.
Very harsh calling anderson sub-standard, he is actually matured into a good CM, he has a great engine and can pass the ball well (something he has evidently worked on). He just needs to be partnered with a more mature playmaking CM who can cover the space he leaves (Carrick maybe). Cleverly has the potential to be this, but he needs time to mature and learn about the space he needs to cover. Fletcher and Anderson (more recent pair) doesnt work, and they lack creativity from that area with both of them playing. The best midfield partnership they could play right now is carrick and anderson.
The loss of an extra midfielder due to Rooney playing in the hole, means they are much more open, though rooney has played so well it would be suicide to drop him.
But rather than the loss of scholes, i think this has much more to do with hernandez. His great form in 2011 has lead to Ferguson sticking with him and rooney (and now welbeck). This means a more permanent midfield two, losing the structure they had. And the fact is Hernandez cant play as a lone striker, he doesnt have the strength or build up play needed, so Rooney is needed to play, to link the attack and midfield.
So you get a consistent supply of goals from Hernandez (Rooney would score in both his position now or as sole striker) but lose the compactness and possession of a midfield three (TBF they have managed to keep good possession with just two CM’s).
Yes I think you have grasped what I said…. he (Ferguson) is paying attention to what he has, a great blend of flexible energetic players, and also dismissing what he is deprived of: a midfield. There is no disputing that fact. In the modern paradigm you need a holding player, with positional discipline to cover the marauding full backs – he also needs to be able to distribute. Ahead of him are more of an athletic destroyer, and a creative hub – the pulse of the team – rotating attacks, and retaining ball.
Manchester does not have any of these breed.
@hutman: you said
“What this has done is polarised the Utd. game. When they have the ball, it goes vertical, to the wings and fast. Nani, Young and Rooney, clearly are the trio which orchestrate the United attack – midfield has little emphasis – just pass it to Young or Nani quick. ”
you hit the nail on the head but i don’t necessarily agree that we have a complex regarding Barcelona. This system has been in place since 07-08, but back then we were strongly based on defensive solidity and our midfield played sideways as Fergie to me, didn’t truly believe the role of the midfield should be anything more than to provide a defensive screen for the CBs. Now he has turned that on its head and just focusing on midfield into attacking and leaving our back four up in the wind.Please do keep in mind that our wing backs and strikers do tend to trackback a lot, more than most top tier teams in Europe.
The Basel game was a highlight of that. Carrick was playing up the pitch far too unlike himself and look where it ended.
Personally, in our current setup our midfielders should be rotated around Carrick, as Anderson, Giggs and Cleverly offer a lot going forward(while being not as defensively sound) and Carrick is capable of playing alongside any decent midfielder(save Fletcher). That said the issues we have are now two fold with our lack of strength in depth in the middle and the fact that Fletcher is looking almost like a guy on his last legs since that virus. That leaves us with Gibson and that is a thought I shudder to think about.
Anyone who calls Anderson sub standard either hasnt seen him play enough or hasnt got a clue. When he first came through a couple of years back, he out played Gerrard, Lampard and Fabregas in those games.
Look at the stats this year and you see Anderson with most passes and most interceptions, everything you require from a CM.
Rooney having support behind, in front and to the sides is the ideal scenario, and that is what this allows. Play 3 in midfield and Rooney has no one in front of him.
Hutman also seems to be saying the stats arent relevant; surely they are the most important, as they are the only things that can be quantified.
ZM, this is off topic but I just wanted to let you know that every time I come to your page and there is an tacky, extremely irritating, jumping advert with an old woman stretching her facial skin I immediately leave the page,regardless to it’s contents. I know you must rely on advertising for revenue but that one is far too distracting and hideous!
Thank you ZM for this. I have been moaning about United’s defending and midfield since the 8-2 result against Arsenal. And till very recently hardly anyone listened.
While points 1 and 2 are rather obvious, they would deal more with goals than shots. 3,4 and 5 are more important here IMO. The way teams are allowed to go through our midfield is scary. United have played some of the best football in years. Its exciting, great to watch and keeping with United’s traditions. However this season this attacking style borders on reckless. 2 forwards, 2 wingers, at least 1 fullback, usually both CMs, and at times, a centerback. They all attack. Hardly anyone is left to defend. Thanks to that aforementioned fluidity most of the time players are not in position to defend. They sometimes simply overwhelm the defence. But when they lose the ball they are cut through like knife through butter. As brilliant and exciting this is to watch its also scary as hell. Because while I think we can score 3 or 4 a match, I also think we are capable of shipping that many. And sooner or later those goals will dry up, because we have been scoring more than anyone per chance created.
The defence is young and inexperienced thanks to injuries. They hardly played together, defenders are played out of position. To top it off Evra, the healthiest of the veterans, and stand in captain, instead of leading by example, gets caught out and does not get back into play more often than not. He has been very poor (by his very high standards) since March 2010. To add to the woes we have a young and very inexperienced keeper who barely speaks English. I am sure van der Saar organized the back four better.
And all this with no midfield protection. The midfielders work hard, but when you’re not in a good position to defend in the first place its hard to be effective. When we had Hargreaves and Carrick back there (the good Carrick, pre-2009, this later version us utter rubbish), or an on form Fletcher (pre-2010-11 season), or even Scholes, there was protection. Now people will say a lot about Scholes’ tackling, but he was overall a good defender. He was in position, he anticipated the passes, he intercepted, and when he did not give away silly fouls, he was very effective.
As were the others I mentioned. But Scholes and Hargreaves are not here anymore. Carrick is rubbish to the point when even his defensive effectiveness is compromised. He used to tackle very well, intercept passes, took away passing lanes. Now he is pretty much useless and has not played consistently well for over two seasons. Fletcher, well we don’t know when/if he’ll be back to his best. Anderson, though used sometimes as a defensive midfielder, tasked with shutting down particular players, is not a proper defensive player. Neither is Cleverly. He is still learning. Who you combine that with regularly playing Nani and Young together, it does not make for strong protection of the defence.
Am not sure about the Rooney point. Sure he does not chase every hopeless ball, but IMO that is a good thing. He does press enough (but perhaps does stays too high up). As does Welbeck. Hernandez not so much. These three will feature the most. What we need is less fluidity and freedom. I am not sure why Fergie allows this and does not insist on more structure and tactical awareness. Surely Jones would not pretend to be Beckenbauer if Fergie told him to mind his own half. Surely both Anderson and Cleverly would pay attention when the other went forward. Maybe after that second half at Wembley Fergie enjoyed what he saw so much that he just tells them to go out and have fun. Frankly I have no other logical explanation. Other than Rooney maybe none of these players would defy tactical orders. But even Rooney could be disciplined as he shown many times in the past. Hell even Ronaldo was disciplined when told to do so in the first half of 2008-09. He was a classical winger then, no free roaming, no switching to the other side, no pretending he was a striker.
So I am guessing that as long as United keep getting away with this wonderful recklessness, Fergie will allow it. It helps the players understand each other. The kids keep learning new things every game. And they grow in confidence. Due to injury and form, most of the first choice 11 has been either new (Cleverly and Welbeck included along with Jones, Young, De Gea), or play in new positions (Anderson as part of a 2 man midfield, in a proper box to box midfield general role, Smalling at RB). So its rather chaotic. But soon Fergie will reign them in, already we are seeing signs of this. With more tactical discipline the defence will be better protected. But we still lack that proper midfielder who can control the game and protect the back four. Instead of chasing the Sneijders of this world we should have been after someone like Schweinsteiger. He would solve most of our problems.
Agree with the point on Evra, Not been his best for a couple of seasons, often out of position.
Also agree Schweinsteiger is a very good player and would be a good acquisition.
What I disagree on is Carrick. He still positions and intercepts the ball very well, 8 against Benfica (almost 40% of the total).
Also, Anderson has mostly played as a midfield 2. When played in a 3 further up is when he appears less effective.
On the discipline of Jones, when he does break forward it is very effective at reaching the final third, so see no reason anyone would want him to stop. He chooses his chances aswell, not doing it everytime.
A lot of these posts also seem to think Sir Alex doesn’t know this fact himself, which is ridiculous!
Carrick had some very good and some decent performances this year, but he has not been consistently good for years now. I used to like Carrick, a lot, and defended him from detractors, not anymore. There is nothing to defend. I hope this season he can get back to his best, because we will certainly need him, a lot.
Anderson was played a lot with 2 other midfielders, sometimes in the attacking role you mention, sometimes with the task of shitting someone down. Even with only one central partner he was always given a task, he either tried to be the creator, or the defensive one. Nothing like he plays now.
Jones has been great, a revelation even, but very lucky as well. However his tactical indiscipline has not helped our defending. Too many times he has been caught out of position. Don’t get me wrong, I love those runs, but we need players who will cover him when he does make them. Too many times no one has. In one game it was so bad that for over a minute Ashley Young was playing central defence. Surely that is not what we want. Thankfully the opposition didn’t test his tacking or aerial ability, but it was rather scary.
This,
Agree with most points. Can’t believe Ferguson didn’t bring in one more CM and Dutchman is no answer to current problems. Anderson have all attributes in his locker but his lack of stamina preventing do legwork which is very important. Fletcher is still nowhere near full condition. Carrik become more and more defensive only.
I guess John can do the job in midfield also Park is better in the center. anyway, this is stopgap solution, Team need new CM and if current CM cannot raise their performance only result united will see is another crushing defeat.
All the points you raise as to why United are conceding more shots are valid, but mainly relevant are 1,3,5.
De Gea is supposedly poor at stopping long shots from his Atletico days, and after his somewhat dodgy start, teams are really keen to test him out.
Also, no holding player, more space between the lines, hence more time and opportunity for shots.
And lastly, the system United are playing at the moment. Much more open, hence more space for the other team to exploit, it’s as if United are saying, however many you score, we’ll try and get one more. I’ll be shocked if Ferguson see’s this as the system to beat Barcelona, play like they are playing against Barcelona, and they will get RUINED.
One last point, such a fan of Phil Jones, I’d go as far as saying he’s already a top 10 world centre back. He’s got the lot, immense physical attributes, quick, strong, good in the air, and he’s also a very good ball player.
Jones in the top 10? i beg to differ. he is our number 4 choice there alongside Evans. He reminds me of Pique in that they bot hsuffer from the aerial game while playing for us. In Jones’s case his lack of height at just 5′11 when compared to 6′2 and above when compared to the rest of our center backs and how our league loves the ball up in the air more often than not
Height alone does not make a defender great in the air (granted, it helps). Positioning, speed and athleticism are at least as important. Jones has all the right attributes to succeed in the Premier League though. It will just take time, luck and lots of hard work on his part.
Great article.
I have always suspected that ever since De Gea’s blunder at West Brom Fergie’s organised his defence in a way that De Gea’s given a crash course in goalkeeping, allowing opponents to shoot from far and limiting their crosses instead. Stoke’s goal and Basel’s first 2 are from crosses and corners – although these goals are no fault of De Gea’s, the fact that they’re scored from deliveries suggest that our defence weren’t organised to deal with them.
As for defensive injuries, I think Vida, Rio and Smalling will be fit after the international break, so we can only access if this has been the problem after a few matches played.
We have never had a true holding player after Keano left, and Hargreaves went down with injuries for 3 years. Carrick sacrificed his attacking game when he took up the role, resulting in his negative approach when in attack (still a great player, people never appreciates players like Carrick who gave so much for us). As for the Ando-Clev combo, they’re playing together for the first time this season, and they’ll figure out eventually on when’s the right time to join attacks or staying slightly behind for defensive cover. All they need are more games and time!
When Cleverley was out of action against Bolton, Roo took up the midfielder role and made a defensive contribution and Chicharito scored shortly after. I am not sure how much lesser he’s worked compared to when Ronny’s around, but Wayne’s work rate remains undisputed, and it shouldn’t even be questioned in my opinion.
Agreed on fluid attacking = poor defensive structure. That’s the price one would willingly pay though. If we’re committing 1 full back, all 4 midfielders and 2 strikers in attack, we’re always vulnerable to counter attacks anyway. But while we’re all sweating over our defensive frailties, aren’t we enjoying our best attacking display since 07-08? It’s really hard to have both you know.
Since we’re approaching a rather all-out attacking style this season, defence wouldn’t be a problem once the big boys return from their injuries to steady the young ship. My concern though, is that we struggle in attack without Roo linking us up this season. While Berba’s limited to bench appearances as of late, when he’s on he appeared to have adopted Carrick’s unadventurous mentality too. He’s our closest trequartista to Rooney afrer Giggsy in our team, so hopefully they’ll rid their negativities asap!!!
A more interesting question would be why are they so effective when they concede so many shots?
Very good at taking chances, Most of player’s conversion rate are good. for example, Nani is not accurate shooter but this season, he can score within very few shots. Even Anderson start to shot accurately.
Overlapping run from defenders have been very effective so far, except Rio all back three can attack fluently.
De Gea’s distribution is quite good. One area he is better than legendary keeper Van de Sar is distribution.
Maybe all ZM’s points have a certain amount of validity. personally i think they are using more attack minded players than in previous seasons and some players are new so the understanding may be lacking at this stage of the season. but i have another theory which people seem to have omitted. maybe teams doubt their ability to break united down(only the shots from long range are above the average for the league) so are they taking pot shots because they think they wont get through united back four. if i was a manager i would be quite happy if the opposition were shooting from long range it would tell me that our defence was doing its job-how many of those long shots actually went in? im not a united fan by any means but i wouldnt fancy my chances against vidic and ferdinand. individually they have weaknesses but as a partnership they are superb, while phil jones has been superb and smalling has improved from last year, only johnny evans has looked a bit shaky
A point many have missed – open up to the opposition by allowing chances and have more room yourself to shoot.
I think this website is great. I often come to it to read the articles. But I can say, hand on heart, that this is the worst article I’ve read here. It’s great that you’ve noticed this oddity and the question you have posed is interesting, but there is no substance to the article. It starts with a list of statistics but none of them are used to any degree. The argument is based on things you feel you’ve noticed, not the stats. I hate to criticize because you’re normally excellent and I’ve improved my own knowledge of the game by reading your articles – but honestly, if this report landed on your desk, what grade would you give it? There is very little insight, very little use of statistics to illustrate your theories, very little comparison to comparable teams.
Again, if you’ve written 100 articles 99 of them have been terrific and I wish you all the best for the future, but this has been the 1 in 100 that has truly missed the mark. Sorry, but it’s the way I feel :-/
I think ZM makes a compelling case to explain why MU has given up so many long range shots and even goes as far as suggesting why the high shot total has not affected MU’s league position. Maybe you could say this article is ridiculous because there have only been seven games, but the the only part of the article that seemed to be based simply on ZM’s assumptions is #4 about Rooney tracking less. The rest of the article is backed with interesting — and surprising even — statistics.
Given the data, it’s simply weird how well United have been doing lately. It’s hard to reach any other conclusion than that they have been lucky. It’s certainly hard to imagine them winning the league if their opposition keep having as many shots. It’s also hard to imagine United continue being as effective in scoring on their own chances. The effectiveness of both United and the opposition will regress towards the mean, and United will improve stats on opposition shots. The question is how much things will go in the direction of normal.