Germany v Spain: tactical preview
Probable starting line-ups
The pre-tournament favourites versus the most impressive team in the competition so far. A repeat of the 2008 European Championships final it may be, but this is completely different contest.
For a start, David Villa and Mesut Ozil – the two star men – were not involved two years ago. Of the Germans, only Miroslav Klose, Per Mertesacker and Lukas Podolski remain in the same positions from that final, whilst Spain will start with a different formation to in 2008, even the side contains a number of the same players.
Both sides have one selection dilemma ahead. Germany are without Thomas Mueller, suspended (because of the ludicrous rule that two minor offences in 450 minutes of football means a player missing a World Cup semi-final). Joachim Loew has four options for replacing him – Raphael Honigstein believes the most likely starter is Toni Kroos, another exciting young creative player. He spent last season playing on the left for Bayer Leverkusen, but is equally comfortable on the right (or in the centre).
Vicente del Bosque doesn’t have any suspensions – Spain have only picked up three bookings in the tournament – but he does have a problem with Fernando Torres. The Liverpool striker hasn’t looked fit so far, and there is speculation that del Bosque has finally lost faith in him, and will instead turn to David Silva, with Villa pushing into Torres’ central striking position.
This wouldn’t require a great shift in the way Spain play – in fact, it would return them to their starting line-up against Switzerland in their opening game. That’s the only game Spain haven’t won so far, however, and if it is to be Silva and Andres Iniesta on the flanks, there must be more natural width – playing centrally is clearly a deliberate tactic, but it makes Spain’s build-up play so simple and predictable.
It’s more likely that del Bosque will give Torres one more chance, however. Silva hasn’t been particularly impressive himself, Cesc Fabregas coming into midfield doesn’t give the team any more width, whilst Fernando Llorente and Pedro seem to be seen as impact players. After what happened in 2008, the German defenders won’t be too enthusiastic at facing Torres again, even if he isn’t quite on top form.
Torres broke German hearts two years ago - will he get another chance?
So where will the game be won and lost? The two formations are similar, assuming the predicted line-ups are correct. Both broadly 4-2-3-1s, both with very direct attacking players on the left combined with a player wanting to come inside on the right, both with the right-back more adventurous than the left-back, both with three central midfielders who all have the ability to create.
The battle in the left-wing / right-back areas are particularly exciting. Podolski and Villa don’t want to defend, whilst Philip Lahm and Sergio Ramos don’t want to be constrained to purely defensive jobs, as both are forced to provide the width attacking from the winger ahead of them. The onus is on the two full-backs – they need to be brave and get themselves forward – they do, after all, have the safety net of one spare centre-back behind them.
More likely, though, the game will be won in midfield. There is no other match-up in this tournament that would feature such composed, intelligent footballers in the midfield. In terms of ball retention, Sergio Busquets, Xavi, Andres Iniesta and Xabi Alonso are near-unbeatable, but Germany’s midfield trio have been even more impressive in this tournament.
Loew has a decision to make about pressing. Should he instruct his team to sit relatively deep, and focus on not allowing Xavi and Iniesta time on the ball (as Switzerland did), press higher up and disrupt the passing game of Busquets and Alonso (as Paraguay did), or press all over the pitch (as Chile did)? Even with Germany’s technical proficiency, it would be a surprise if Spain didn’t dominate possession, and so how Germany break up their attacks is particularly important.
Pressing is also a key factor in terms of del Bosque’s tactics, but a more immediate problem is how to deal with Mesut Oezil. He plays very high up the pitch, making it difficult for a holding midfielder to track him, but then treating him as a withdrawn forward (and therefore the domain of the centre-backs) gives him space between the lines. Sergio Busquets has had a good tournament and is possibly the key player in that sense.
But the most important player is David Villa. Spain are far from a one-man team, but when you consider that of Spain’s six goals in the tournament, Villa has scored five and assisted the other, stopping him is clearly the most crucial feature of the game for Germany.
This has the potential to be a classic.
Germany v Spain: tactical preview
A classic it will be. Cant wait for it to start. Viva la Spain.
If Kroos is playing, I expect a lot of switching between him and Özil. Even more then with Müller. Kroos could play Özils role and Özil is quite good to cut in from the side like a Robben.
Spain is better in every aspect >_<
but
Germany has 3 stars on their shirt. ^_^
and the end
Holland will watch this tape 100 times, cause both team will throw out all their card! T_T
(sorry for my English)
I think it is far from settled whether Kroos is substituting Müller. It really depends on Cacao’s level of fitness. Cacao has been at his best as a supporting striker or winger with the licence to roam. He would provide the box penetration that made Müller so dangerous, albeit at the expense of speed when receiving the ball with his back to goal (his first touch in these situations may be his greatest weakness). Also he is less tactically astute in defense than either Kroos or Trochowski, but has an outstanding work rate to kind of make up for that.
As I said before, the replacement will also be decided by the onus that Löw puts on his full backs. If they are meant to advance play with width and pressure high up the pitch, a winger who is quick in turning becomes less important.
Agreed, Busquets could be the key man. I can’t wait to see how Löw will deal with the ball domination of Spain. Germany won the previous games by controlling the midfield, what will they do this time?
Toni Kroos or Trochowski? Trochowski is a more defensive choice, Kross will not able to provide the protection Müller offered for Lahm. Let us see, will Löw be brave or be careful.
Neither Kroos or Trochowski is defensively profound in my opinion. As for the latter, I usually watch all Hamburg games and he lacks awareness – I’ve witnessed multiple instances where his opponent simply ran a straight route (after a one-two combination) into the penalty area and then completed an easy low cross while Trochowski was left standing meters away, wondering what happened. On the other hand, Capdevila might not be as adventurous anyway.
Further, Trochowski is not really suited for the German counter-attacking style – despite having the skill to do so, he rarely opens up the play with risky yet precise passing. And off the ball, he is not as good in getting into positions inside the box where he’s able to score (compared to Müller).
Trochowski might get the nod though – he has quite a lot of big game experience from European club competitions, and also has a reputation for scoring decisive long-range goals. Plus, he has never missed a penalty in his professional career if I remember correctly. Well, based on the last two points he might be a good substitute for overtime or if we have a close game after 85 mins
In an interview today btw, German scout Urs Siegenthaler stated that Löw views Spain as being the perfect role model for his team. We’ll see if the apprentice is ready to knock off the blueprint.
This game is so unpredictable I can’t wait to see the tactic battle between Bosque and Löw!
Spain’s advantage is that they have so many choices upfront. One substitution can change the way of attack completely.
Agree that Pedro and Llorente aren’t necessarily starters, but how about Navas? Surely he’s been showing more to warrant a go than Silva has…
I’m also surprised not to see Navas mentioned (or indeed used by del Bosque), especially after the way he turned the game on its head when introduced in the second half against Switzerland. Spain weren’t able to capitalize, but it still seemed to justify more involvement for him.
his service in that game if i remember correctly was horrible, even if he did get into a decent crossing position (which he did a good amount)
Ramos can be key for the Spanish game. Left defense of Germany didn’t always look that solid, although, Boateng made a good game against Argentina. For Germany, the most important will be how quickly they can get the balls through the midfield. Will be far more difficult than in the England or Argentina games. I expect an awesome game, which has the potential to become tactically one of the best!
Ramos has been brilliant in all matches. Its not his fault if a half-fit Torres cant convert his crosses. I hardly see any adulation pouring in for Ramos. He has been a right-back superstar this world cup(hope atleast ZM gives him a thought in his team of the world cup). He deserves it.
I fully agree. My thought was more the lack of stability Germany provided on the left defense could be a trigger. And Ramos is probably the best player to take advantage of it.
Maicon and Maxi Perreira have both been better than Ramos in this tournament. Ramos wan’t very good in Spain’s first two games.
The worst game for Ramos was already better than any of the games by Perreira and Maicon (save that incredible goal).
Ramos played well in games 2-4. Played decent in game 1 & 5. Maxi wasn’t better in any of his games, but Maicon surely was. Being in the same ballpark as Maicon is already a nice achievement though ;=)
As for right-back of the tournament, Lahm would need to have a bad game, with Spain advancing to the final. Otherwise, Lahm will be a safe pick.
I agree that Ramos can be key to the Spanish game but mostly in defense rather than the attack. As a matter of fact an out of place Ramos,who will be caught high up the pitch tryin to provide attacking width for his team, will be exactly the weak spot that Ozil and Podolski will be looking for in one of those perfectly executed German counter attacks. So I would advise him to be very defensively aware.
especially since hes really the only person in the back four with any pace
Puyol and Piqué don’t have pace? I still remember Piqué matching Cristiano Ronaldo at full sprint over 20 meters in El Clásico in Madrid. Puyol is not exactly slow either. Not so sure about Capdevila.
Both arent naturally slow but have looked a little caught out for pace so far this tournament, I think it’s fair to say
villa was very much there in 2008 just that both torres and villa used to play together upfront rather than either being confined to the flanks
He means in the final v Germany – Villa was missing though injury.
Zonal Marking was referring to the FINAL of the European Championship, for which Villa was injured. I expect Spain to stick with Torres, bringing on Fabregas early in the second half. Great tactical match with Spain to win.
Aaaaaaaargh
Ha!
The key to Germany when attacking is stretching the pitch to open up gaps in teh channels which Klose and Ozil in particular – add to that late runners – have been able to expose. The wide men have been key because of the combinations they provide and allowing the quick switches of play from left to right and vice versa. Therefore it is no surprise Muller has the goals although to what extent can they recreate that against Spain?
Their best bet would be on the counter and in that sense, Espana will be very wary – a double pivot becomes the must with Busquests playing very deep – not necessarily alongside Alonso but nevertheless a shield.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_wH-CgDpji9M/TDRDRHsojvI/AAAAAAAAAAc/oNqlU_gHn-E/s1600/taktik.png
good tablet in order to discuss the positioning of the player…
Thanks, it’s a more detailed tablet. I realized that Germany plays very direct and vertical against a spain side who plays in a more horizontal fashion with a very tight midfield. The positioning is the key for success and I think spain has an advantage because there are simply more open voids (room) for the spanish players if you overlay the positions of the two sides.
How do you make this tablet? Looks nice to me.
ArchiCAD
good work warlord…
what criteria have u used to determine the radii and what do rectangles signify
Boateng and Ramos are going to crash into each other at incredible speed! or am i reading this the wrong way?
cut off ozil’s supply. if you have lets say xavi pushing up you force khedira to follow him or drop off, busquets and alonso then focus on closing down shweintsteiger and the passing option to ozil. without muller playing i think it will be a big loss, his off the ball runs and ability to combine attack and midfield so quickly gave ozil alot more space, kroos might not cut it.
Germany has struggled when played against 3 man midfields and spain has the best 3 man midfield going around. width wont be as important as a against more defensive teams, germany will look to break and play quite wide as is, if spain control the midfield and play narrow it will force alot of germany’s width from lahm and podolski to disappear, especially as both torres and villa can comfortably come further up the pitch to help start the attack or run at their men. this means against germany spain should theoritically have the numerical advantage in the midfield, germans are amazing on the counter though and the speed at which they can break can mess up any1.
As much as I love the Spanish players I think we’re going to see some major holes in their line up (if it’s as predicted). Just like against Argentina, Schweinsteiger will be key in shutting down build up play. I don’t think Lahm will get forward quite as much so Podolski needs to be more of an impact player for germany. Since Lahm will stay home and try to stick with David Villa, Torres (if he starts) is key to a Spain victory. Either way, tactically it will be a great game. Unlike the Dutch semifinal I’m not expecting a lot of out and out attacking, more midfield play.
This game will be won and lost by little mistakes and exploiting them. Don’t allow David Villa space to run with the ball, don’t allow Oezil too much time on the ball. Just my thoughts.
‘because of the ludicrous rule that two minor offences in 450 minutes of football means a player missing a World Cup semi-final’
this is not about tactics, but: I think every yellow card must lead to the same consequences. There should be no difference in a quater or half final.
if FIFA is concerned about suspension (they don’t care about Müller, this rule is for the big names like Messi, Ronaldo, …), they should change the rule.
maybe three yellow cards in the whole competition and not two (wuth this q-/s-final s***). or parol for three games for any yellow card, so the second card within the next three games leads to suspension. (wouldn’t change anything for Müller b/c he got booked against Ghana and Argentina).
A solution could be limiting a given yellow card’s life to a particular amount of games played by the booked player. E.g. a player gets booked in the first game. Now if yellow’s life is 3 games and the player gets booked again in the 4th game (3rd after the first yellow) he is out, any later and the first yellow is dropped.
Such a rule would be way more consistent than the current inane “lets drop all yellows before the semifinals so noone can miss the finals due to a simple offense (but let’s not talk about similar cases earlier in the tournament)” rule.
“… because of the ludicrous rule that two minor offences in 450 minutes of football means a player missing a World Cup semi-final… ”
Agree, indeed ludicrous – but let’s not forget that Schweinsteiger could have been booked against Argentina, too. So maybe, it wasn’t that bad for Germany after all that it hit Mueller…
But can anyone explain how in a card-crazy cup like this one (where one of the fairest players like Mueller gets suspended for nothing) someone like van Bommel made it to the semifinal without a single yellow card?
van Bommel equals clever.
I agree with this. Mueller is a real gem of a decent player. May be Holland is a very lucky team for cards. Yesterday, they didnt get any card before that first goal, and later they also got through a clear elbow in their penalty box.
just an example for being “clever”: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWCyZ_2hFPY
Van Bommel got a yellow card at the very end of last nights game.
But it was for time-wasting. Bit like a murderer getting jailed for unpaid parking tickets.
Lol =)
Haha, brilliant
What about two yellows in a row = suspension. Yellow = no yellow = yellow => no suspension in game 4.
Digging up my comment from the Argentina vs Germany analysis:
“I think while the yellow card was hard, the ref had an excellent game. It is hardly his fault that two yellows in five games can equal suspension in a world cup semi-final.
What about adjusting the rule to instead work as this: Two consecutive yellow cards by the same player within the matches he played results in a one match ban. Consequently, any games the player plays in between without a yellow does free him up from an impending ban.
Scenario A: yellow-no yellow-yellow = no ban in 4th game
Scenario B: yellow-did not play-yellow = ban for 4th game
scenario C: yellow-yellow-banned in 3rd game = no ban in 4th game
With the hugely different level in judging fouls and tackling among refs through out the tournament this appears as the best solution to me until all refs start judging in a similar way (read = unlikely any time soon).”
yeah i read and agreed this.
not only as someone who admired mueller the whole season, but this would be pretty fair for most booked players.
let´s say the referees weren´t that consistent over the worldcup and mueller is one of the best mannered players, hard decision (especially against spain where a good right side will make the match. dont think trochowski can do that)
Sorry, but then all I have to do as manager is put my thug (let’s call him MVB) in for the last few minutes of a game, and provided he doesn’t get booked (not at all a sure thing for MVB), I have transformed Scenario B into Scenario A and avoided a ban. Most managers hang onto a sub until very late, so this would not cost them much. And worse, this would encourage me to bring TWO thugs instead of one to the tournament.
Maybe if you changed it to “matches he STARTS” which would require the booked player to have some self-discipline for a good part of the game in order to remove the previous yellow.
Looks like the final will be a battle of teams using 4-2-3-1.
But Spain will only be a 4-2-3-1 in defensive phase; it’s really more of a 4-2-2-2 in terms of average position. Similar to Brazil`s set-up in 1982 (except that Eder, then playing in the Villa role, didn’t have to track the opposing full-back).
Germany don’t play 4-2-3-1 at all. It’s pretty much straight 4-2-4 in attack and 4-4-2 in defense with Klose and Oezil up front. The definition of these phases has become somewhat sharper over the course of the tournament and it was really obvious in the two knockout matches.
Mingling the two phases together and adding some crude logic you might arrive at a 4-2-3-1 somehow, but that would give you a very wrong idea about what is actually happening on the pitch.
Kroos is the best option when you play against Spain. Im not a big fan of Trochowski and think he loses the ball often and his decisions are not always smart.
Even though Kroos is usually playing on the left, he has a good technique and can play a good pass. Also, he can support Khedira and Schweinsteiger in the defence (or centre) if required.
both systems have somthing lopsided.
As I tried to post on the Uruguay v Holland thread I think Holland and Spain have very similar problems – too many players all wanting the same role – deep lying playmaker for Spain and number 10 for Holland. Both manifest themselves in a lack of width which I think Spain need to stretch the pitch and offer more space in behind. Capdevilla can get forward from left back to provide it on that side and bringing Pedro in on the right would do the same thing. Their other problem is simply not having any driving runners from central midfield meaning that at the moment only an off-form Torres and Villa are getting into the box. Pedro in would also help that but they need one midfielder to do it and if they are keen to keep the double pivot – and given the way Germany destroyed Argentina and England who both played with one I think that would be wise – that could mean the unthinkable and dropping Xavi for Fabregas. Or maybe dropping Xavi back into the double pivot at the expense of Alonso. I also think Spain should bring in Llorente as a proper hold up man up front but I agree that the team ZM puts up is likely although I wonder if Fabregas might oust Iniesta. Going to be very tight – Spain are not as open as either team Germany stuffed in the last two rounds and I think they will nick it.
There’s no way Iniesta could possibly be dropped for this game, he’s created both of Spain’s goals in the two other knockout matches. He played the pass for Villa against Portugal and it was his fantastic run that lead to Pedro hitting the post and Villa converting the rebound.
His recent brilliance aside even in a tactical sense Fabregas for Iniesta doesn’t work, while Iniesta does like to cut in from the wing and play in central areas he at least starts on the wing; At last year’s Confederations Cup Fabregas was played in a right sided role that essentially made him another CM. As ZM says “playing centrally is clearly a deliberate tactic, but it makes Spain’s build-up play so simple and predictable.”
However I do agree that Spain should consider dropping Xavi back into a deeper position at the expense of Alonso or Busquets. It’s this deeper position where he has been so influential for Barca in recent years and is much closer to where he operated for Spain in Euro 2008. This is where Fabregas can come into the side in the more advanced role that was previously occupied by Xavi and where he plays frequently to such good effect for Arsenal.
This gives the German midfield two excellent players to worry about in the center. Close down Fabregas and Xavi will have time to pick a pass, move deeper to close down Xavi and gaps open up between the German midfield and defence. This should have a knock on effect of forcing Ozil to track deeper into midfield not allowing him to stay high up the pitch and orchestrate the German counter attacks.
A riskier approach to be sure, but with their ability to retain possession they should be able to frustrate and tire the Germans who have yet to face such a composed and balanced team.
Yeah there is no way Iniesta will be dropped. It was a combined effort from Iniesta and Xavi that created both knockout goals, while Iniesta scored what proved to be the winner of the Chile-Spain game. After Villa, Iniesta has been the best player for Spain so far. He gives Spain a direct route, looking to run at defenders and cause trouble.
I agree that dropping Xavi back might be a good bet. They need to replace Alonso, though, and not Busquets. Alonso cannot do the spoiler job alone, while Busquets is used to doing it alone for Barca. I think it should be Navas who replaces Alonso if anyone. Throw him in on the right, attacking the weak Podolski/Boateng side with Navas/Ramos. Boateng doesn’t seem to commit himself, yet looks prone to anyone running at him. Podolski won’t help him. If they leave Torres out, they should bring in Fabregas on top of a triangle with Xavi and Sergio behind.
Go 4-2-3-1 with
Xavi-Sergio
Navas-Fabgregas-Iniesta
Villa
as the front 6. Ozil won’t be tracking Xavi tight enough, so one of Khadira/Schweinsteiger will have to step up. That leaves the other facing both Fabregas and a Iniesta who will look to come inside. Navas holding the width on the right will also force one of the CM to shuffle across to help Boateng whenever Podolski wanders off.
“Boateng doesn’t seem to commit himself, yet looks prone to anyone running at him. Podolski won’t help him.”
Have you seen the game against Argentina?!
Spain has to be primarily concerned with the German counter-attack.
Therefore, Del Bosque won’t drop either Alonso or Busquets after what Germany did to Mascherano and Barry.
I think Spain will be defensively stronger if they play Navas or Pedro on the right, since the alternative is playing Iniesta there. If that happens, Ramos will come forward frequently and Podolski will get in behind him on the counter-attack.
Iniesta-Villa-Pedro
——–Xavi——-
—Busquets-Alonso-
If Spain need a goal, you simply bring on Fabregas for Alonso or Busquets (Del Bosque prefers to leave Busquets on, so it will be Alonso) drop Xavi Deeper and one of the 3 attackers (Torres, Navas, Llorente) for Pedro.
Torres is more likely to trouble the German D if they have already chased 3 speedy players for 60 minutes.
Spot on Daniel. You called it.
The advantages/disadvantages of Pedro as an attacking force are secondary to the impact it will have on Ramos’ mentality and movement. As you point out it is this defensive concern that should be most important.
Spain have played their best football with Llorente on the field. His size was crucial and freed up the other guys. I have been surprised he has not seen the field since.
I am a believer that Schweinsteger is key to this game. He has controlled play for this side throughout and has proven to be able to handle the defensive duties. If Khedira can press the Alonso/Busquets when they have the ball (I think Alonso have played terribly throughout), there could be an errant pass or two that can set up the counter.
Spain would be best served with someone speedy on the wing like Navas. I think if Navas played he shouldnt be so quick to cross and instead cut in and try and set up a one/two.
As for Ramos, he has played fantastic football. I am curious if he will make ZMs 11 over he beloved Maicon
.
All recent form points to a German victory but Spain has had a little luck on the side this tournament.
great point here.
Spain lack good width. Especially if Sergio Ramos is staying back and is not overlapping.
That is what they have in common with England and Argentina.
This might help Germany defensively – with the back four again playing very narrow and deep to negate any spanish through balls.
As you said, it will be difficult to pick up Mesut Özil. That’s not the only problem, though. Klose drops deep far more often than he’s given credit for. I think I’m right in saying that heatmaps and avg. positions from a few games have shown Özil actually higher up the pitch than Klose, such is the excellence of their movement. I think the coordination between Puyol and Busquets to pick up those two will be the difference between success and failure for the Spanish.
Another thing is the “spare” defenders. On their day, both Torres and Klose have the individual capacity to occupy both central defenders (in a 4-man defence), as Klose has shown in South Africa, and as Torres has done for both Liverpool and Spain. Torres is off form, and Klose is in excellent form. That could cause problems for Gerard Piqué, who’s had a strange tournament – not necessarily a bad one, I’ve seen him mentioned in the team of the tournament a few places – he’s certainly not the calm, unflappaple master of elegance he usually is at Barcelona. He’s been panicked in 2 high-profile situations (Swiss goal and Paraguay penalty), whereas at Barcelona, he looks assured even when the defence is in trouble or conceding a goal. What I’m getting at, in my long-winded way, is that if Germany press high up the pitch, they may be able to exploit Piqué’s apparent lack of confidence/form, and Puyol’ suspect distribution, and get at them in that way, much as Bayern did against United at AllianzArena this season. Whereas Germany wouldn’t have to worry about this because of Torres’ lack of sharpness.
Bild.de reports that Trochowski will start in Mueller’s place.
bild once claimed that a sect of aliens wants to clone hitler…very reliable source
lol
lmao
An excellent preview, ZM.
This match will surely hinge on who can control the pace of the game from midfield, where I expect both teams to press as hard as they can, right from the off. The outcome will then depend on how precise the players’ first touches are and how quickly and accurately then can get rid. It’ll be a close-run thing, but on that basis I’d put my money on Busquets and Xavi screwing up somewhat less and creating somewhat more than Schweinsteiger and Khedira, who haven’t really been put to the test yet. (In an interview published this morning, Xavi noted that he hasn’t been able to do a single one of his trademark pirouettes yet, because in five matches he hasn’t been given even a yard’s space. Even so, he’s completed more passes than anyone else at the tournament.)
Anyway, it’s a match that promises to be both as tactically fascinating as it is entertaining – and those don’t come along very often when there’s so much at stake, do they?
————–Villa—————
——-Fabregas——————-
—————–Iniesta———-
———————————-
———-Busquets—Xabi———
Capdevila—–Pique———-Ramos
——-Puyol———Marchena—–
————Casillas————–
Obviously based on the Brazil 2002 formation. But do I but a defensive player like Xabi or Martinez (Kleberson) instead of Xavi (Denilson/Juninho)?
reminds me of france 08 i think,
this does not work against a wide team like germany. (with two great playing 6s)
I think Spain will be better and win, we haven’t seen the best spain yet, but 6 players are from Barca, th ebest team in the world. Olso Spain defense is much better than England defense or Argentina defense. Pique and Puyol are olmost unbeatable. Villa is unstoppable.
At the risk of getting it wrong I am willing to predict a win for Spain tonight. I do not expect Spain to be caught out on the break as easily as England and Argentina were because they hold possesion so well and never really panic.
Germany will certainly concede possesion to Spain and hope to have slick movements down the wings (where arguably Spain are weakest) and through to a possibly unmarked Ozil.
This really has the potential to be a classic as both sides are technically gifted and play football in a manner which we all enjoy. I for one cannot wait!
I see this game being decided by the German centre backs and Torres. A fit and on form Torres will make Friedrich and, especially, Mertesacker shiver. Not just because of Torres himself but the way Spain play with him. He gives them more options that Germany will not be able to cope. Without Torres playing, Spain are predictable and require skill from an individual to win a match.
Spain need Torres to play. An out of form striker only needs a goal to to be in form
Muller is Germany’s best player. He creates many of the attacks and I believe has the most assists on the team, and oh by the way he has scored four on top of that. His non presence will be the biggest factor for their loss today.
Spain’s creative players will pave the way, regardless who is on the field or not…they all can create magic. Look for Villa to get all the attention, but someone else will step up and score the goals today.
Another brilliant article by the way. It’s going to be a quality game, and I can’t wait.
The loss of Muller is going to affect the shape and general organisation of the German team. Had Muller been playing, I would have strongly fancied the Germans, without Muller, I give the Spainish slightly more of a chance.
I still think the Germans will win though, Spain haven’t massively impressed me, and despite there main strength being seen as there midfield, I think they will lose the game in midfield, I don’t think Alonso and Busquets will be able to deal with the German runs of Ozil and Khedera, and will Xavi be willing to do the defensive work in order to stop Schweinsteiger?
For Spain to win the game, it is massively important that Torres hits form, the German defence are disciplined and no nonsence, but I think could be troubled by a constant pace and movement, something an on form Torres could offer. But the key to beating Germany is controlling midfield, Spain are obviously very capable of doing this when they are in posession, but when they aren’t, I worry for them that there midfield won’t be good enough defensively to deal with a very good German midfield.
You mention Spain’s lack of width, I think this is much more of a problem than the article suggests. Spain leave massive gaps out wide on the left and right, both Iniesta and Villa are extremely talented players, but they are not natural wingers, they are constantly drawn inside and the Germans should aim to exploit and target these gaps.
And one not about the comment on Podolski, I believe he does a good defensive job, he worked back well against the Argentians.
An intriguing game!
Xavi has never shrunk from defending before. He may be (justly) more recognized for his great passing and ball retention, but he’s also an excellent ball winner — not necessarily making spectacular tackles, but pressuring opposing midfielders into bad passes.
I can see Germany sitting back and conceding posession. Spain hold a ridiculously high line when seemingly ‘in control’ of a game, with loads of space to exploit behind. This means that any half decent counter can have the entire defence scrambling and struggling.
Whilst everyone is banging on about Spain having to play against 10-men-behind-the-ball-teams no-one has mentioned that their defence has rarely been tested. They have looked shakey at best. Paraguay got a penalty, Chile and Switzerland scored. Read into that what you will.
Senna is such a monumental loss for spain in this tournament. It has forced them to play two players in his place, neither as good of a passer or a destroyer.
Actually Alonso is better at passing than Senna and Busquets is better at short-passing than Senna. Busquets and Alonso are different kind of dms in that since they (and their teammates) almost never give away passes, they don’t have to tackle other players as much as traditional dms. Senna played for Villareal as a deep-lying playmaker after Riquelme left but for Spain he left the playmaking to Xavi. If Xabi did the same, we would see a better Spain.
In my view, Spain going present the toughest test thus far for Germany in 2 respect – fitness and organisation.
One of less known strengths of Germany is their super fitness level.This is why killed off their opponents late in the games.
Also Loew’s a master tactician who understood the weaknesses of their opponents well. Most of the team Germany faced were unbalanced so it was easy to exploit these misalignments. But when the opponents played defensively, Germany struggled.
Spain is not just fit but also have the 2nd most balanced team in the WC and they work as a team and work very hard.
Combined these 2 factors with Spain’s possession game makes the job of Germany very hard. I also don’t think Spain will be naive to leave holes by having a high defensive line knowing Germany’s pacy attacks.
I am not privy to Leow’s thoughts but when he said he wants Germany to force Spain make mistakes, I think he meant Spain do not have any obvious weaknesses.
However I think there are indeed weaknesses that Germany can exploit. Firstly, Spain’s CBs vulnerability to crosses and high balls. Secondly, due to their short passing game, Germany will be able to regroup and cover the defensive holes quickly. As such, Spain will struggle to find openings. Thirdly I think Loew will by pass Spain’s midfield and attack their CBs like what happened in the Australian match. In this game plan,Klose’s role will be crucial in harrassing the CBs and then allowing the midfield runners to slip in to score.
Also it will be crucial for Germans to score first. If they do then it will be all over for Spain. In that case, I wouldn’t be surprised if Germany adds another 2 or 3 goals more.
In my view Spain have not met another team of Germany’s pace and playing style. As such they will generally struggle to contain when Germany attacks. On the other hand, I think Leow will allow Spain to enjoy the possession in MF and hit them fast and hard when they get hold of the ball. He knows Germany cannot play possession football as well as Spain so it is pointless to match Spain where they are the strongest.
Wasn’t it Alonso that succumbed to the great pressure that the Paraguayans put on by making poor enough passes to get called out by his teammates? While the accurate passing is their trademark, I think the Germans will be looking to get behind the ball on any Spanish break but press the midfield and cause errors when Spain is set in the German’s third.
I also expect Spain’s backline to play lower than they have been to counter the counter, so to speak.
Either way, this should be a low-scoring matchup where one or two mistakes result in the win.
Analisis in Spanish of Lów´s Team:
http://comunidad.terra.es/blogs/desdenervion/archive/2010/07/06/elataquealemanamplitudygeneraciondeespacios.aspx
Wish I could read Spanish myself, but google translate seemed pretty solid. Very well done analysis, only few things to nitpick:
1. Löw did not transform Schweinsteiger from average player to world class. That was in fact van Gaal, contrary to what you wrote in the article. If you need an example, watch his performance in the champions league semi-finals against Olympique Lyonnais.
2. Regarding triangles, van Gaal trained this like mad with the Bayern players before and during the 2009/2010 season.
3. Regarding occupation of space & intelligent movement, Löw revealed in a post-game interview that he divides the pitch into 18 areas of interest depending on situation, that are meant to aid & govern positioning of players. This splitting up into different section re appears again and again in modern day analysis of coaches, as far as I can tell. I do not know who started bringing this into football, but it certainly appears to be a successful approach.
“I do not know who started bringing this into football, but it certainly appears to be a successful approach.”
Perhaps Arrigo Sacchi
Pedro is rumoured to come in for Torres. So Villa will go back to the centre and Iniesta and Pedro will be on the flanks.
Is that true? If it happens it’ll make me very very happy!
1.Spain will have more natural width (which can actually be switched to both sides) hence Lahm will be nullified
2.Spain can hit Germany on the break with a good long range pass by Alonso and the super fast Villa-Pedro
3.Iniesta should try a few direct runs towards a hopefully isolated Mertesacker or a few out of the box shots
Yeah, it’s official. And Trochowski plays for Germany instead of Müller.
Good to see Pedro is starting instead of Torres. Pedro is both a great winger as well as a goal scorer. He did very well with FCB this past season. Lots of pace and ball control.
Would I be wrong in thinking that Spain’s current formation looks like a 4-2-2-2,like the brazil sides of old?
Yeah, it does.
And Del Bosque is a big admirer of those Brazil sides of the 1980s.
Even at Madrid he gave Figo and Zidane license to move inside and ahead of the double pivot.
Odd as it might seem, del Bosque will still stick to Torres.
Without Torres it increasing look like a Republican Spain XI and it seems just too natural for the Castilian man to make sure that a couple from his home area starts the game.
Unlike Germany, which does not have the shadows and legacy of a Civil war looming over them even it was almost 3/4 a century before.
Pedro is from the Canary islands, Ramos is Andalusian, Alonso is Basque, Iniesta is from Castile-La Mancha, Villa is Asturian, Casillas and Torres are from Madrid, Puyol and Xavi and Pique and Busquets are from Catalonia and Vicente del Bosque is from Castilla y León.
Why do you and Wilson think Kroos would play? He doesn’t have the tools to really play there. Trochowski is the only option, albeit a bad one but Kroos doesn’t have the work rate or physique and tends to drift centrally far too much for said role in this system.
I thought it would be Trochowski, but I went with Raphael Honigstein’s view – he’s a more trusted source than me!
Pleased to see Trochowski though.
did you saw kroos last season? compared to trochowski?
like mueller, kroos were a pretty decent midfielder (both did great, not even statisticly) and the germans playing style fits leverkusens (kroos) system far better. i really think trochowski is the wrong decision
but trochowski starting wasn´t a secret, i think he was lows natural choice (not always rational but all in all mostly right at the end)
It was pretty apparent Trochowski would start. After all, he’s the sub that was used most for Mueller before the tournament and even in the tournament. Kroos is probably what we, as fans would like to see because we’ve seen so little but Loew sees him as a central midfielder and a replacement for Schweinsteiger, that’s it. Trochowski offers more width but I’m more concerned with his intelligence, or lack of and he’s rather one dimensional. He cannot dribble and will opt to cross every time. He has a good shot though. It’s definitely a concern, but I’m crossing my fingers.
Pedro starting in place of Torres
I must eat the humble pie at the outset and admit that he has never heard of the phenomenon called Muzuit Ozil before the first German match. In fact, I had not bothered to wait up in office late hours to watch the Germans play this World Cup.
The only time I came across the Germans in WC 2010 was during the Argentina match, and that too, only because Argentina played. Rather, naively took to the field.
What I saw horrified me. What horrified me more was the next match of the day. I am a Spain fan, and do not want to see Xavi cry.
Hence, this.
What scares me is what pleases me. I love Spain for the way they play – yes, having so many Barcelona stars makes it easier to love them – but the style is what attracts you. On the other hand, that ping-pong, triangle-forming, tempo-controlling style is on the verge of becoming a dogma. Most members of the Spain team have assured that they will not change the way they play.
That cannot be allowed. Spain, predictably, has become predictable. The low margins that Spain has won every match in the ongoing competition and the loss against Switzerland point to this.
Fernando Torres may not be firing on all cylinders, but with so much quality on display, Spain was expected to score much, much more. Instead, from Portugal, Chile, Paraguay and Honduras have combined to tell us that, “Spain leave it till the end.”
Or is it something else? I think there is one, but that is more of a damning evidence which proves the theory that Spain may have become too predictable.
Substitutes.
Fabregas against Honduras, Fernando Llorente against Portugal and Pedro against Paraguay had so much influence on the game from the moment they stepped on to the pitch, it cannot be a coincidence.
I think what they did was to change Spain’s “shape” every time. It may also not be a coincidence that it was Torres who was substituted out in each case.
I am not asking del Bosque to change the way his team plays. I am asking him to be less stubborn and more experimenting.
Spain does keep its game play simple. At the risk of sounding reductionist, we might say that the team tends to play narrow with players trying to control the pace of the game with midfielders slowing it down considerably when things get too hot. As has been written about already, Spain tend to keep possession, tire and frustrate their opponents in midfield, and suddenly break forward, trying to score.
Since the kind of play involves short passing, Spain tend to play through the middle of the pitch, using wide players as an “outlet” when the midfield gets clogged. It helps that in Sergio Ramos they have a good right-back.
Opponents expect Spain to play through the middle, and Spain are playing into their hands right now. This could also be the reason for David Villa’s success – the opposition is simply too occupied with Xavi, Iniesta, Alonso and Torres in the centre that Villa gets the space to cut to the centre from his new-found centre role.
Surely del Bosque has noticed, reason why Torres was hugging the right side of the pitch in the match against Paraguay. Ramos surely cannot be expected to do a Maicon and marshal the entire right flank. He also does not possess the ability to cut in frequently and score. Ramos may deliver the crosses, but the short Spain players (I am not counting on Torres to score here) will not be able to capitalise and score using their heads.
Germany, on the other hand, has used three quality wide players this World Cup. Lahm, the right back captain, is one of the best in the business. I always thought Barcelona should buy him, even if it meant deploying him on the left thanks to the presence of a certain Dani Alves. Playing ahead of him, Tomas Mueller is one of the finds of the tournament.
Podolski may be a dud for his club, but is a different player for his country and plays at wide left in an attacking role. Boateng, who plays behind him, is relatively untested yet, but that is for later.
Germany, therefore, have a number of outlets wide of the pitch when attacking. The presence of Klose in the opposition box is going to prompt crosses too, for sure.
Spain, then, have to do two things – spring a tactical surprise on Joachim Lowe for a first goal, and counter the threat of the German wide players.
The starting XIs are out, and I am told Pedro is in. One of the two changes I wanted – for two reasons.
The first I have stated already, and that is natural wide position of Pedro. The second is not-so-obvious, and that it his ability to finish.
Villa, Torres and Iniesta could have been considered the “finishers” in the previous line-ups. Torres did not finish at all, so that leaves just two in a team brimming with talent. Pedro could just be that edge that Spain need, considering that he would be up against Boateng, a relatively weak link.
The second change I would have loved to see was Busquets being replaced by Fabregas. A number of reasons why I argue so:
Fabregas playing would mean clear and defined roles for the other three in the midfield. As they say, Alonso would be the destroyer, Xavi the passer, and Iniesta the creator.
The presence of Fabregas would (have) allowed Xavi to move to a much deeper role, in which he should be comfortable. Xavi has been good so far, but his advanced, attacking role in the midfield has given him an average World Cup by his standards. More than once, it was disheartening to see Xavi get the ball in the box (by virtue of his skill and position), but choosing to pass it instead of going for goal.
That, I think, is because Xavi is no finisher. On the other hand, Fabregas is.
Germany too, plays three midfielders, and Spain’s trio of Alonso, Xavi and Iniesta should be able to take care of Schweinsteiger, Khedira and Ozil comfortably. However, Xavi should be wary of the much-more-physically imposing Khedira. It also depends whether Mueller’s suspension changes Germany’s shape.
Another reason is that Busquets is spoiling the party. Must say I am not much of a fan – I think his father’s standing has helped him in the Barcelona and Spanish teams.
This writer is of the view that Alonso is a much-better player than Busquets, and the latter is eating up the former’s space in midfield. Busquets cannot be blamed for this – hardworking as he may have been, Tevez can be blamed for eating up Messi’s space during the game against the Germans, forcing the latter to play from a withdrawn central midfield role.
It is up to del Bosque to change the way Spain plays. If the feint is good enough, he can even end up changing the way the Germans are used to playing.
The last of my reasons for including Fabregas is purely a tactical one. Germany’s defence has not been exposed this World Cup, and that is partly due to their excellent attack and midfield. I think the best way to go about it would be to use an unconventional “0” striker. A false nine of sorts.
Now, Fabregas in the line-up would have sent across the message that Spain are playing four midfielders. However, I would have Fabregas playing in the “hole” between the central defenders and Schweinsteiger. Now, since Schweinsteiger will have Iniesta and the Germany wingers, the threat of Villa and Pedro to deal with, the centre backs would be rendered jobless.
They should (have been) be made to go after Fabregas.
That would have pulled the German defence out of shape, and drawing the opposition out-of-shape is the dream of every football manager.
With the introduction of Fabregas, Spain would have (had) four players up-front with the ability to score goals.
Drop Busquets? No ####ing way. I don’t know how many times people have said this, but Alonso can’t do the job by himself. You only have to look as far back as the loss against US in the Confeds Cup to realise this. If Spain had a defence that was less willing to go forward, maybe Alonso might have been enough. But not with Ramos (a better goal-to-game stat than Roberto Carlos, heir to Hierro), Puyol (former RB), Piquebaur (enough said), Capdevila (La Liga’s top scoring defender); it might have helped if they were had a bit of pace but sadly it is not so. A lot of people make the mistake of saying they’re bad defenders but when they do stay back and defend, they are the best in the world. Case in point: Ramos, who Mourinho wants to be his main central defender or Puyol who has been in the UEFA Top XI for some 5 seasons or so now.
This was also the one match so far for Spain that would have made sense in playing a double-pivot to destroy any counter-attacks and to have a numerical advantage in midfield.
I think you’re seriously overrating Maicon here. Brazil’s (and Inter’s) gameplan is different. It’s defend, defend, defend, then counterattack but in the case of Spain (and Real Madrid), Ramos is expected to attack first then defend which makes his job all the more difficult [read what he had to say to critics in the '08-'09 season http://www.madridgalacticos.com/2008/10/26/sergio-ramos-problem/ ]. I haven’t really seen any full-back marshal an entire flank but Ramos as a 21y.o. in the 2007-2008 season for Real Madrid came pretty close. You also said: “He also does not possess the ability to cut in frequently and score.” Umm, which FB does? It seems to me that you haven’t watched any of Ramos (who btw has a better goal-to-game stat than most defenders today although some of them might have been from headers) or Maicon apart from the WC. It looks like after you saw Maicon’s goal against DPR Korea, you’ve got the idea that’s all he ever does. I remember that a 21 y.o. Philipp Lahm at the 2006 WC did some of what you’re asking for. But again, he was also criticised for his defending.
I agree that Fabregas will bring something new to this current setup but there is just no way to accommodate him in a double DM setup without dropping Xavi — and no, putting him on the wings will only create more problems (again look to the US loss for reasons). Hopefully after the WC when Spain comes up against lesser opposition or gets faster defenders (Azpilicueta, Pique, Ramos, Monreal/Canella probably) one of the holding midfielders is dropped and Fabregas comes in.
I still can’t comprehend how people can suggest dropping Busquets. If I was giving the Young Player of the WC award, I would give it to the Barcelona 21 y.o., not Oezil (who Busquets had no trouble s***ing on).
Interesting first half. The German midfield are really struggling to retain possession and Spain are keeping it well so far. If Spain get the first goal in this game Germany are going to find it very difficult to get the ball back, let alone get back into the game. Interesting stuff.
damn you Paul the Octopus, and damn you more the referee that gave Mueller that bad yellow card booking. Oh well, it was a nice run Deutschland, thanks for the entertainment.
A pretty convincing performance, for sure. I thought the addition of Pedro was a key. Now Spain were playing with 11 men, instead of 10 + a non-entity in Torres. Germany were constantly beaten in the midfield, and Xavi and Iniesta were able to do pretty much whatever they wanted. Schweinsteiger looked very stretched trying to defend them both, and Lahm was forced to stay back and almost never got forward (Capdevila gave him nightmares — why Loew didn’t flip he with the more defensive Boateng when that became clear I don’t know). But it all started with Spain’s midfield dominance/Germany’s being outmanned.
If Spain field the same 11 against Holland, the Dutch will need to ask a lot from van Bommel and de Jong.
It is said that Xavi was the Man of the Match, i wouldn’t doubt that myself. But the inclusion of Pedro in the line-up gave Spain more movement.
As a Barcelona fan, I’ve only seen Pedro interchanging plays at the beginning of the final third, but i was amazed how well he played today by integrating plays with Xavi and Iniesta in the middle of the field. Xabi Alonso had his defensive duties and Spain needed another player that can bring the ball forward with Xavi/Iniesta, that player was Pedro who was all over the pitch.
Even tho he made a grave mistake in that 2vs1 and got sub right after but i’d definitely start him in the final.
Couldn’t agree more, though the failure to pass won’t be popular. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Navas, instead, which offers a similar set of benefits.
Pedro offers more options than Navas. As I’ve said before, he works well with Xavi and Iniesta. Navas is more likely to go to the air than do a cutback pass.
Villa’s second goal against Honduras was assisted by a Navas cutback pass. So far, Pedro hasn’t scored, he has only gone for goal selfishly and hasn’t found it either. The rebound from his shot against Paraguay was just fortuitous.
If Germany had equalised after that Pedro miss and had somehow gone on to win it, Pedro would have been crucified for life.
Xabi Alonso is necessary, without him the team splits in two because of the poor form of some of the players. Today he did a great match.
I don’t think Pedro will start in the final. It should be Llorente. Having another striker gives Villa more space to operate and score goals. Today was Pedro’s big chance, he should have scored or assisted. Villa can’t really hold off big defenders by himself. But Pedro’s inclusion did bring some much needed width.
Spain were average in the first half, but spectacular in the second. They totally dominated possession. Even more than people expected. And crucially they were playing their tiki taka on the edge of the German penalty area, not just in their own half. Time after time they threatened to open up the Germans like peeling a banana. Shame their final ball is not that good, otherwise we’d be talking about 2 or 3 goals. Also, if Fabregas had played, Spain would have had a lot more attacking presence inside the German penalty area.
Maybe thats coming in the final…
You think? I just don’t really see where Fabregas fits into this squad. Instead of Alonso? Hard to see Spain giving up his defense.
I hope Torres will start the final – along with Pedro. I doubt VDB will take out a defensive player (Alonso) for an attacking player for a final though… Against an attacking team like Holland, Spain will have to try their best to control the game. That’s why I think it is necessary to have a Barcelona midfield of Iniesta-Busquets-Xavi. That midfield is obviously going to get the best out of Xavi and Iniesta, and when do Barcelona ever fail to have more possession of the ball than the opponents? I think this is one of those matches where the team that controls possession will win, and Barcelona always win in this battle. Starting Torres is also a good idea because Spain rely a lot on Villa (a little too much) and Torres creating space gets the best out of Villa. Even if Torres personally isn’t at his best (he is doing better than what people think) he is getting the best out of Villa (without Torres today, Villa was much more quiet than normal, even in his preferred central position), and also pressuring the defense a lot. I don’t expect VDB to risk taking out Alonso, especially in the final against an attacking team, but he should do it in order to exploit the space given to Spain by Holland attacking a lot. Pedro is also good because his speed can take him past Holland’s captain. Giovanni has been good by sticking to his opponent and not letting them turn – ZonalMarking has made this clear – so that they don’t expose his lack of pace, but with Pedro being double footed, it becomes that much harder for Gio to do that. 4-3-3: Casillas-Ramos-Puyol-Pique-Capdevila; Xavi-Busquets-Iniesta; Pedro-Torres-Villa.
Llorente instead of Torres.
It would be stupid to malign a very attractive German side which has played obviously a very great torunament up to now, but after the semifinal it is quite obvious that they weren’t THAT good in the first place and that they demolished respectively England and Argentina to a large extent due to other teams’ frailties and bad tactical decisions which played right into german hands.
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