Slovenia – 4-4-2, hard-working, organised etc
In previous competitions, we might have Slovenia’s system as rather boring, but in a competition set to be dominated by 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3s and three-man defences, it’s quite nice to see someone persevering with the good old 4-4-2.
Without wanting to be patronising, there’s something delightfully simple about the way Matjaz Kek has assembled this Slovenia side. In terms of pure ability of the players, they are technically limited – arguably their most talented player is the goalkeeper, Samir Handanovic. But Slovenia have triumphed (for a country with two million people, qualifying for this tournament is a triumph) by doing the simple things well – defending with two banks of four, playing a targetman alongside a hard-working willing runner, and most importantly, being very well organised.
It’s hard to really judge their true quality based upon past results. They came second in the weakest group in the European section of qualification (the Czechs were the seeds, but are a shadow of their former self and were well out of it), but then they surprised everyone with their victory over Russia. That was the lowest-ranked side in the playoffs being drawn against the highest-ranked side, and the lowest-ranked side progressing – albeit thanks to a questionable refereeing display.
The first XI
As you might expect, Slovenia have one of the most settled first teams in the competition. Eight of the side started eight or more of their ten qualification games, and the line-up for the opening game against Algeria should be easy to predict.
The centre-back pairing of Bostjan Cesar and Marko Suller is everything you’d expect from an Eastern Europan side – they’re tall, physical players. The full-backs are fairly conservative – they get forward when possible, but their ability on the ball is nothing to write home about. Left-back Bojan Jokic is slightly better in this respect.
The midfield is most noted for a lack of flair. Aleksander Radosavljevic has the holding job, whilst Robert Koren has more license to attack – but he’s hardly the archetypal playmaker. Valter Birsa is expected to start on the right, but will cut in onto his preferred left foot, which is also a good weapon from set-pieces. On the opposite side will be Andraz Kirm, who has been warming Wisla Krakow’s bench in recent months.
Upfront, Mile Novakovic is the targetman, whilst Zlatko Dedic runs his legs off chasing second balls and drifting to the flanks. Again, it’s an old-fashioned approach – one wins the headers, the other goes for the flick-ons. It might sound simple for the World Cup, but think Niall Quinn and Robbie Keane for Ireland in 2002.
Conclusion
Slovenia should finish ahead of Algeria, although the Africans’ 3-5-2 shape should work rather nicely against a basic 4-4-2, so Slovenia might encounter problems in the midfield – they’ll need their full-backs to get forward more than they are accustomed to. They are, put simply, a weaker team than the USA, but they may have more chance than people expect.
The draw has been relatively kind to Slovenia – not just in terms of the teams they’re up against, but because of the schedule of their games. Here’s the thinking – they start against the weakest of the three sides they’ll face, Algeria, where they should pick up an early win. Then comes the crucial game against the United States. If Slovenia can pick up a draw there (4-4-2 v 4-4-2 means it’s certainly possible to make it a tight, boring game), and England have, as expected, beaten both the US and Algeria, the points situation would be England on 6, Slovenia on 4, the US on 1, and Algeria on 0.
That would leave a final day situation where England and Slovenia would both be content with a draw – England would win the group, Slovenia would qualify regardless of the US v Algeria result. England often get one below-par result in the group stage, and might be inclined to rest players having already qualified. OK, it depends on a lot of factors, but for Slovenia (200/1 and 23rd in the world) to finish above the US (66/1 and 14th in the world), it might be the best bet.
Slovenia – 4-4-2, hard-working, organised etc
as good as always. but it’s samir handanovic.
i hate it by the way, when people – who have no clue – say that slovenian and slovakian team are on the same (low) level.
Thanks for the correction. Two Handanovics, both goalkeeper for Slovenia – that’s too confusing for me!
Great stuff, as always. Sure Algeria will play a 3-5-2?
Algeria typically play 3-5-2 but they’ve been working on some 4-man defences to use when they might come up against 1/3 man attacks. I think England will be the only side in the group to do this though.
No actually, it looks less likely now.
They have very good set piece takers as well, against New Zealand they were looking to push the ball up to Novakovic and when they were winning free kicks in and around the D of the penalty area they scored two and went very close with the others.
If any team gives away free kicks in that area against them they’ll be put to the sword. Ledley King and John Terry aren’t as agile as they used to be. Algeria’s keeper isn’t great and their set piece marking has been shown to be absolutely awful lately.
When I talked to Jonathan Wilson, he said their motivation for switching to a 4-4-2 was less match-ups and more their defenders wanting to change systems because they all play four man backs at club-level. He also had some interesting things to say about the three man back requiring more cohesion than a four man, pure zone based system (the necessary cohesion making the three man bad disadvantageous for Algeria to persist with).
I hope they go three at the back: more fun and better for Belhadj. At CAN, they switched after Malawi and didn’t go back in their next five matches, IIRC (might be wrong on one of those matches).
USA v England has gotten all the attention but USA v Slovenia is the most important match for us Yanks. We simply need three points from that match. We should take 3 points from Algeria, since our approach has been very successful against the 3-5-2 set-up.
I agree that England are not a team that are likely to get through the group with 9 points. Here’s hoping we’re the beneficiary of the points they drop on Saturday. Even a point would put us in great position to qualify since England would need result from their next two matches to win the group.
Excellent point about the kindness of the order of matches for Slovenia. My enthusiasm for this group draw was quickly dissipated by the order of the matches (and the presence of Eastern European opposition–we’ve lost–badly–to an Eastern European side in each of the last 5 World Cups).
With the likelihood of Slovenia having 3 points and the USA 0, Slovenia will be able to play cautiously, unlike the USA. Whichever side is able to sit back and counter–it suits them both–will have an advantage that could prove decisive.
On the other hand, if England cracks under the immense pressure to beat the US or Slovenia doesn’t win then the story changes completely. Slovenia is only in a good position if everything goes right in the first games; anything less and they’ll be in a tough spot.
It’s also interesting that while the 4-4-2 might be rare in the world cup, the US, Slovenia and (sort of) England all play them. If Algeria joins in then it would be an all 4-4-2 group!
I’ve been predicting Slovenia to go through in second for months. Not popular with my compatriots (Americans), but I’m glad to see that both Jonathan Wilson (Monday’s FW) and now ZM see the logic in it. Also, there is always one well organized, thoroughly average squad who do better than expected.
It’s an interesting insight into team’s tactic…you did your homework to a certain level… but for real footbal (ups, sorry, soccer) fans it’s a bit limited though.
I do agree with your predictions….Slovenia will progress to 2nd round.
And there’s another but: “albeit thanks to a questionable refereeing display”…WTF! I would argue that there were so many more questionable refereeing in there qualifications and so when writing about one’s system of playing those kinds of remarks are really NOT necessary. Especially if you did not see these matches yourself.
and damn dudes…would any of you just please find a map of Europe, find a little spot called Slovenia and see how “deep” in the East it really is.
Hello from a “small country with big balls” to all you football (ups I did it again, soccer) fans in USA and I hope we kick your buts next friday.
Great information! I’ve been looking for something like this for a while now. Thanks!