Serbia: outsiders or real contenders?
Serbia's possible line-up in their probable formation
How many times can a side be labelled dark horses before they cease to be dark horses? Serbia have been hyped up so much as potential overachievers that it’s difficult to know how they’ll live up the billing.
They’ve been in this situation before, ahead of the last World Cup. Then, they’d had an even more successful qualification (having conceded just one goal) but were drawn in a very tough group and crashed out without a point, so their performance will surely be an improvement, at least.
Back then, they were competing as Serbia and Montenegro, and at the risk of being politically insensitive, it’s a shame that Montengero are no longer contributing to this team. Serbia have a fantastic array of defensive players to choose from, and a very competent midfield, but appear to be lacking upfront. Had Raddy Antic been able to select a strike partnership of Mirko Vucinic and Stevan Jovetic – both Montenegrin - then this side would be even better.
Defence
The identity of the four defenders is slightly unknown, such is the strength in depth Serbia are able to choose from. Branislav Ivanovic would probably prefer to be a centre-back but is shunted out to his now-familiar right-back role, because of the competition in the centre.
Nemanja Vidic is a sure starter as long as he is 100% fit after a virus, and will be partnered by either Aleksander Lukovic (creating a nice left-right combination) or the Dortmund’s promising Neven Subotic. Lukovic looks the favourite, but any of the three possible centre-back partnerships are fearsome and no-nonsense.
There is a further battle at left-back between Ivan Obradovic and the exciting Lazio wing-back Aleksandar Kolarov – the former started more during qualification, but the latter is probably the more talented player and is in good form, although probably prefers a more advanced role. Pre-tournament friendly time seemed to be split between the two.
Midfield and attack
Nothing complicated in terms of the nature of this midfield – a holder, a creator and two wingers. Nenad Milijas is the unfussy player who sits ahead of the defence and allows Dejan Stankovic the freedom to move around looking for opportunities to create, although he plays a relatively deep role. Milos Krasic and Milan Jovanovic bring flair to the side and are two to watch out for – both skilful, both natural wingers and both potential goalscorers, and they play advanced roles looking to link up with the two forwards.
That is, if Serbia go with two forwards. Nikola Zigic will definitely start – he’s 6′7 or 6′8 depending on which source you trust – and offers an obvious aerial threat as well as a decent all-round game (“good feet for a big man”). If Antic goes with two strikers, as he did throughout qualification, then he will be partnered with Marko Panetlic, a decent player but far from prolific at international level.
Variation
There’s a suspicion that 4-2-3-1 may be on the cards, however, which would mean Stankovic playing a role more suiting his No 10 shirt, and and a more defensive player being inserted alongside Milijas. This could be Hertha Berlin’s solid Gojko Kacer who might make Serbia’s midfield a little too negative – a more attractive option would be Zdravko Kuzmanovic, a more sophisticated user of the ball but one who sometimes struggles to impose himself on the game.
Conclusion
Serbia should progress, although the first game against Ghana will be a very tough encounter where Serbia will need to get a hold of the midfield early on (hence the speculation about a third central midfielder).
One of the two strikers will need to have a great tournament if Serbia are to cause a real upset, although Antic is a good tactician and with plenty of options in defence and midfield, could outfox opponents who expect them to be about brute force rather than intelligence.
Serbia: outsiders or real contenders?
Apologies for the relative mediocrity of this article, it’s the 31st out of 32 and is the equivalent of getting to the front of the canteen queue just as they’re finishing off the last tray of chips, and getting the horrible cold ones at the bottom.
You kept me waiting for Algeria to the very end
Some say the last is always the best, though, and thats what I hope for!
the fact that you manage to write like 6 of these reviews a day is quite astonishing mate, hence compensating for the supposed (but unnoticed) mediocrity of this article!
shame on you! poor article. no excuses.
No worries, this whole series has been superb, and this being the 31st one I’ve read I didn’t notice any particular drop in quality. Many thanks!
Kinda off-topic and also at the risk of being politically insensitive, imagine what a team they could come up with if they were still what once was Yugoslavia…
Modric,Olic,Pandev,Rakitic,Srna,Jovetic,Vucinic,Handanovic,Petric,Dzeko,Misimovic,Pjanic and more…
Scary stuff…
Personally, I believe the entire series of wars was just a international consiparacy to split up the football teams and make them weaker.
Lol, nice analogy ;=)
These articles are seriously much more useful than what I have been reading in the main German sports magazine ‘kicker’ ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kicker_%28sports_magazine%29 ) – and they employ 24 journalists for the print-version alone.
So, thanks for all your hard work – I feel prepared now for a great world cup =)
My mock tourney had a Brazil vs Spain final, and I will be rooting for Chile in the group stages – aside of Germany of course ;=)
Cheers!
Wow, kind of a let down, none of the penetrating analysis and sketches, the piece is bordering on the generic, and I was waiting for it for days now.
But anyway, it just goes to say about the high quality articles I got used to reading here, so apologies accepted.
Hey ZM, thanks for the article. Great knowledge, as always. The game against Ghana is key. I completely agree with you regarding the switch, since I know Antic will go for the point in both the first and the second game, figuring that 5 will be enough to make the second round. Honestly, I hate this mentality, but maybe its the correct tactic. Wouldn’t it be nice to play, just for a change, an attacking game against the Germans? One can only dream…
Very bad and unprofessional analysis of such a good team. It’s obvious that you hadn’t too much time left for in-depth analysis, but that’s your fault. No one can tell me that US team deserves article that is three times more detailed than this one, or this is just your demonstration of not being able to see what Antic has prepared for this World Cup.
That’s a little harsh, no?
If you don’t like it don’t read it mate. Quite frankly, I’m amazed that ZM is able to produce so many articles in such a short space of time of consistent quality. This website is better than 99% of football websites out there and it’s not as if you’re paying for it are you?
Hahaha, I love this comment for it’s arrogance!
Why don’t you write a better one then, botja, that’s what the comment section is for.
Jesus, calm down. It’s a blog by one person you don’t pay for nor are even subjected to adverts on…
I assume the comment was meant sarcastic
i love your blog man, it’s great
Lets hope so. Although I do love the idea that the most critical comment comes from a name with a smiley face in it… delusion is a beautiful thing.
Come on – give ZM a break. I think in general the articles here are superb. ZM has given a good overview of all the teams at the World Cup. He’s only one person and the quality of the articles are still much better than I’ve read from mainstream magazines and newspapers where they have a team of dedicated writers . Keep up the good work, I (and probably many others of your readers) appreciate the effort. Good luck with writing for The Guardian during the World Cup too! Would really love to hear you and Jonathan Wilson talking tactics on one of the World Cup Football Weekly podcasts.
I was very interested Serbia vs. Ghana when the groups were announced. I’m not sure if that’s going to be as good as I thought originally. What do you think?
Really interested by this one. Serbia have some quality players on paper and I hope they progress but surely there has to be a concern for them tactically in this group. As you’ve already illustrated, Germany, Australia & Ghana will all be lining up 4-2-3-1 with the latter two sides particularly competitive and robust in midfield. This is going to put a real strain on Serbia in the centre of the pitch and I must admit the presence of Nenad Milijas in the role you’ve indicated seems odd. I appreciate the lower reaches of the Premiership are noted for a hurly-burly approach, and Mick McCarthy is perhaps not the most enlightened of managers, but Milijas had to be withdrawn from Wolves’ relegation scrap because he proved too immobile and didn’t provide the defensive cover needed in a 4-4-2. Stankovic is a class act and can fulfil any kind of role necessary for the team but I can see Cahill, not to mention Ozil, getting way too much space in front of the Serbian back four with that midfield pairing. Bringing in Kacar and switching to a 4-2-3-1 would probably do Kolarov, Milijas, Krasic & Jovanovic the world of good to name but four while even Ivanovic is improving as an attacking right-back. Matching up against the opposition seems the obvious way to go for me because, such is the quality of the players in this Serbian side, the only way they are going to make a mess of this group is by getting it wrong tactically.
Should have got Serbia in before they were being constantly labelled as underdogs then!
Genuinely, I think they have a pretty good chance of going quite far. Krasic is obviously key, it seems every time I’ve watched them, everything just goes through him.
Only position I’m worried about is their ‘keeper, he’s only had a handful of appearances over three years and made that complete howler of decision last season for Wigan didn’t he?
Fantastic article and website ZM. Has inspired me to broadcast my opinions during the world cup into cyberspace myself, although I lack your literary proficiency.
I hope to see this team go far in the tournament, I’m anxious for the likely prospect of a second round match-up against England.
I have no concerns over the physical, technical or tactical capabilities of this side but my one concern is their capricious, yo-yo like confidence. If they hit a stride, possibly with a satisfying performance against Germany and finish top of their group, there’s no reason to doubt their ability to go all the way.
Focussing on individuals, my doubts lie with their lack of a goalscoring talisman. In qualifying they scored goals from every position and were dangerous from set pieces but with Jovanovic isolated out wide and Pantelic being incapable of offering anything unique, I can’t help but feel it will become a one-dimensional plan of feeding the ball to Zigic when they are in search of a goal.
My personal remedy for this would be to play Jovanovic behind Zigic and introduce a returner style inside-left-midfielder, which in addition to allowing Jovanovic to play in his natural position also gives Krasic and Kolarov more freedom in attack as the midfield becomes a flat three of New Addition-Stankovic-Milijas. Kuzmanovic or Kacar would be the most likely candidates, probably Kacar given his natural versatility. I certainly don’t think his introduction would tip the scales towards negative football, on paper it brings more balance to the side.
Finally, a nod to my fellow fantasists out there: I’m willing to go one further with the political insensitivity and suggest that this would be the strongest squad on paper in the tournament if it were still a side of former Yugoslavian republics, a team constructed of the composite parts of Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Bosnia and Slovenia is frightening and would rival that of the technically gifted and often unappreciated Yugoslavia side of the 90’s. An attacking arsenal including the likes of Modric, Stankovic, Krasic, Krancjar, Misimovic, Salihovic, Birsa, Dzeko and Vucinic would be fantasy football at it’s most majestic, even if it would be struggle identify the strongest effective system amongst the star names.
Again, great article.
And you’re leaving Goran Pandev out (he’s from Macedonia, which used to be Yugoslavia as well).
While I think Serbia definitely have a lot of talent, I’m pretty concerned with their performances in recent friendlies. I mean, a pre-world cup friendly or two, on its own, doesn’t really say much about a team. BUT, when the results are consistent and they’re poor, well, i think that speaks to the general condition of the team. since serbia has called up it’s final roster, it’s lost to new zealand, tied a poland team that spain destroyed, and was in a high-scoring shoot-out with cameroon. so, i don’t know. i think that many people may be hyping serbia too much. they are certainly more than capable of winning their group, especially when you consider the health status of their group-mates, but i don’t know. i think the quarters is doable, but it wouldn’t shock me either if they don’t make it out of the group stage.
personally, i think a team like uruguay has a chance of progressing very far. i know you question their abilities to go far given the formation that they use — but the team is quite talented, and i think has a pretty easy route to the quarters. of course, a lot depends on which france team shows up tomorrow. but if uruguay wins tomorrow, i think they have an excellent chance of winning their group, avoiding argentina, and likely will face england in the quarters. and i think they have what it takes to beat the english.
Why are people having a dig at this article? It is no less interesting than all the other teams and offers ZM unique insight and ideas. Thanks for all these posts, you’ve made my World Cup more complete before it even started.
Because you or me or other casual football fans cannot see the lack of depth of analysis while readers that are more into football tactics can.
There is a bit of a discrepancy between the first paragraphs and the conclusion here. In the admittedly few big occasions the Serbs have been involved in in whatever political constellation in recent years they’ve usually faltered.
If we’re talking about squad quality they’re certainly equal to or slightly below Germany, much deeper than Ghana and in all regards ahead of Australia. Results are what matters though and Serbia as well as Ghana will have to improve in all areas compared to the preparation matches to have any chance to advance. Mental strength is a factor unfortunately often somewhat underappreciated on ZM and because of their history the Black Stars certainly have more swagger than Serbia.
Germany will undoubtedly advance in Group D, the second spot to advance is still completely up for grabs though. If one of Ghana or Serbia can live up to their potential, that team will play in the round of 16. If both do, I’d consider Serbia to be at a slight advantage, as they have a deeper squad as mentioned. If both countries play on the level of the past few weeks it’ll come down to luck and Australia would actually have a decent chance to sneak through by picking up some points dropped by the other teams.
It may be worth noting that Jovanovic, the left winger, is the leading goalscorer of the team in qualifiers. Zigic scored 3 in 9 games and Pantelic scored 1 in 9. Ivanovic has 3 under his name. Somewhat surprisingly, Stankovic did not score any, perhaps his trademarked strike from 20 yards out was a bit rusty.
I did not watch many of Serbia’s qualifiers, so my conclusion may be quite off. Looking at numbers alone, it seems quite a waste to have 2 strikers that aren’t very productive. Zigic is a competent striker and he can hold the ball and distribute to the on-rushing wingers. Instead of having Pantelic, a striker who scores very few goals, alongside Zigic, pushing Stankovic up looks like a better alternative. The formation would become a 4-2-3-1, where 3 offensive midfielders and striker all possess good goalscoring threat, and the fullbacks can provide the extra width and overlap.
Very nice series. I’ve been quietly rooting for the guys whose names end in “ic” since they impressed me in the 1990 WC.
Continuing with the politically insensitive united Yugoslavia team, would they be able to call up Marin and Behrami as well?
Marin could theoretically be called to play for Serbia or Bosnia and Herzegovina now, since he was born in Bosnia & Herzegovina and is of serbian descent (Serbia and Croatia recognize as their citizens the people who are of the country’s descent and escaped the country during the war, which means Marin could be serb if he so wished. That’s how about half of the Bosnian side was built and that’s the reason for Subotić to play for Serbia).
You could throw in Ibrahimovic too as he’d qualify through either of his parents and Lorik Cana (Kosovan). A savage group of players!
Having only ever seen the odd Serbia game its hard to tell how they’ll do, especially with a bogey keeper and an extremely bad performance last time around. That said, their qualification was very impressive again and Krasic, Jovanovic, Stankovic and the back four seem to have a good deal of experience at the top level of club football. Will be interesting to see how they deal with the group. Strikes me as being similar to the Italy-Czech-Ghana-USA group from 2006 where the Czechs came undone by Ghana.
Personally, I thought it was yet another excellent write-up.
If you don’t have to pay for ZM, it doesn’t mean that it’s “worthless”. (I hope this sentence makes sense in English, in my mothertongue it does)
It’s GOLD imho, pure Gold the whole site.
As a supporter of the Serbian side I can basically understand that you miss some of the deep analysis like in the articles before. But this is criticism and not a fair critique.
The Serb side:
, Rene Adler won’t play and their GK problem chosing out of Neuer/Wiese/Butt/Hildebrand/…- pool)
Goalkeepers weak, but Antic chose one (Stojkovic/Wigan) and backs him up in front of the media and supporters. A traditional Serb/Yugoslav/whatever weak point. (Oh, bloody Germans
So I understand Antic in this point. If he would have dropped Stojkovic and chose Djuricic or Isailovic instead(they are playing regurarly in their Clubs), the crowd will wait for the first mistake and say: “You should have taken the other one …”
And Vidic is not seriously ill
Just tested defense without him.
Watched the Serbia-Cameroon match, 4:3. Serbia can’t replace him, especially in short-terms. On the other side, which defense could do that … ?
Bye,
and thank you ZM for this site, keep up the excellent work
Where is the report of Algerian team ?
ZM: The article was a bit on the weak side, it’s true, but one can hardly fault you after writing so many of these. It still beats anything I’ve read in the “normal” press (except for Jonathan Wilson’s analysis, of course).
Notes about Serbia: last WC part of the trouble was the implosion of Serbia & Montenegro as an entity. If memory serves, it was already decided that the two countries would go their separate ways. This killed much of the unity in the team (what do you fight for then?). Then a few injuries to crucial players came into the equation and the reshuffling did nothing good for the team. Lastly, the coach simply wasn’t well regarded at home and amongst the players.
Right now, the big question mark is the goalkeeper: Vladimir Stojković is a fine keeper, but prone to lack of concentration and sometimes too overconfident. If he hits his stride for the whole tournament, he can be a candidate for the team of the tournament. If not, he can be a candidate for a list of bloopers by keepers.
The defence is strong and organised, full stop. Nothing more to say here. Most sides would trade their defensive lines with Serbia’s.
Midfield is hard working and have to provide attacking flair and defensive stability. This may be the hardest trick. Antić wants a focus on the defence and that may be the reason for the lack of goals by the strikers. If they are not supported enough by the midfield (Stanković plays very deep and the wingers have to track back very often) they cannot score. One extra source of problems may be the fitness. The midfield will have to play very intensively and it remains to be seen if they can recover fast enough between matches.
The strikers are the likeliest to explode during the tournament, especially Pantelić and Lazović, players who are somewhat hot headed. The expectation is that Antić has a strong enough personality to keep them focused.
With Antić anything could be expected (this is the man who took Atletico Madrid to a double win in Spain, remember), but Serbia have an innate “self-destruction button” built in. If they refrain to press it, they can be a surprise. Still, I have them going out in the eigth-finals against England (although I’ll be supporting Serbia all the way).
So it’s somewhat sparse by your standards ZM, I’ll bet this is still the best english language profile of this team on the web.
Thanks again, you rule.