Arsenal v Barcelona – tactical preview
Will this man...
The contest that many neutrals might have hoped to see in the final. Two similar sides in many ways – they play a similar brand of football and have both favoured 4-3-3 systems this season.
Both sides might be without their main ‘attacking’ midfielder – Andres Iniesta is definitely out for Barca, and Cesc Fabregas is a doubt for Arsenal.
One suspects that this tie is one where Arsene Wenger will be hoping to outwit Pep Guardiola, rather than vice-versa. Although both sides generally prefer open, attacking games, it’s difficult to imagine how that kind of tie would not favour Barcelona, who are plainly the better side on paper.
Barcelona have experimented with an offensive system resembling a 4-2-4 in recent weeks, but it will surely be the classic 4-3-3 from Guardiola for the first leg. Xavi is definite starter, and will be joined by two of three from Keita, Busquets and Toure. Being away from home, the first leg and against a side renowned for their passing, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Guardiola went for the latter two with Toure in a slightly more offensive role than usual, even if Keita would probably be the most natural replacement for Iniesta.
Messi will be wide-right, Henry wide-left against his former club, with Ibrahimovic probably upfront. As Sid Lowe recently remarked, Ibrahimovic may not have been as prolific as Samuel Eto’o was last season – but his true value to the side is his ability to to win games in a slightly unBarcelona way. He did that against Stuttgart when he converted a chance by winning a long, high ball from defence, and this might be another chance for him to do so, as Arsenal – a short side – famously struggle against a strong physical threat.
...be able to stop these two?
On the other hand, with Sol Campbell starting in the centre of the Arsenal defence, maybe Barcelona’s best option would be to field a small, pacey striker against him – Messi through the middle, with Henry and Pedro either side and Ibrahimovic on the bench? It wouldn’t be a huge surprise, since Henry and Messi were rested at the weekend, whilst Ibrahimovic was not, but the smart money would be on the Swede to start.
Wenger’s most pressing problem is how to deal with Barcelona’s threat on the right-hand side, from Messi and Daniel Alves. Gael Clichy – poor over the past 18 months but improved in recent weeks - will be charged with the task of stopping them, but who will be ahead of him? Andriy Arshavin is not expected to be fit enough to start, and Abou Diaby (the most natural defensive option for the left) is also a worry, and the same applies to Samir Nasri, according to the Telegraph. So Arsenal’s wide players will surely be two of Eboue, Rosicky and Walcott. Eboue’s natural position would be on the right, but his defensive awareness might be useful on the left, especially considering a right-footer will be useful when doubling up against Messi, given his tendency to come inside. Meanwhile, Rosicky is a slightly better defensive player than Walcott, although the Englishman’s speed would be more useful to exploit Barcelona’s incredibly high defensive line. Or could Wenger be exaggerating his injury worries?
With those players out, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Wenger switched slightly to a shape resembling a 4-4-1-1, with Fabregas playing higher up the pitch than usual and being the closest player to Bendtner.
Assuming Fabregas is fit and the afforementioned three are not, predicted line-ups:
Arsenal (4-4-1-1): Almunia; Sagna, Campbell, Vermaelen, Clichy; Rosicky, Denilson, Song, Eboue; Fabregas; Bentdner.
Barcelona (4-3-3): Valdes; Alves, Puyol, Pique, Maxwell; Busquets, Xavi, Toure; Messi, Ibrahimovic, Henry.
Arsenal v Barcelona – tactical preview
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Arshavin not being fit would be a bit of a relief in some ways. Being able to play two hard working wide players instead enables Arsenal to keep it tighter than they otherwise would have done. Keep Arshavin back until we definitely need a goal.
Diaby will be a big miss as he is in the form of his life right now. The formation will be similar to the 2006 model where there were two deep lying midfielders (Gilberto, Cesc) A runner (Reyes) a creator/dribbler (Hleb) and an old head supporting Henry (Ljungberg/Pires).
Cesc has moved up to play off the striker, the runner will be Eboue/Walcott. And the midfield without Diaby would be Song, Denilson and Rosicky.
Think you are fairly spot on.
Indeed, had Diaby been fit I think we might have seen the 2007/08 model that was a 4-4-1-1 with Eboue and Diaby on the wings.
Henry won’t start, reckon he’ll go with Pedro.
Rosicky & Clichy do a decent enough job covering each other on the left.
Reckon Eboue on the right.
If Arshavin and Nasri are injured, which I haven’t seen confirmed anywhere, I’d say the line up would be
Rubbish Goalkeeper
Sagna, Campbell, Vermalen, Clichy
Song, Fabregas, Denilson
Rosicky, Bendtner, Eboue
I think that’s solid to start off, looking to bring on the more attacking threats towards the end.
If as similar to the weekend, he has Arshavin & Nasri on the bench, he can look to bring those 2 or Walcott for the last 20 mins. Though Walcott should only be used if we need the ball ran down some blind alleys, or simply given away.
Or to score a hugely important goal…God bless the power of hindsight.
I’m being facetious, of course, but it demonstrates how quick Arsenal fans are to write off a young talent.
Since you mentioned Eboue, what about putting him in at LB? On the assumption that Messi starts at wide-right, it might pay off to have a ‘wrong-sided’ fullback who might be more comfortable defending inside/showing outside to the ‘wrong-sided’ winger whose obvious strength is cutting inside and wreaking havoc. It’d be interesting, I think, even if highly unlikely to be tried. It would probably cause a difficulty for Arsenal going forward, I guess, since it’s more natural for a fullback to overlap and stay wide on his preferred side/foot. Still, just popped into my head.
Barça’s right flank doesn’t end with Messi. What would you do about Alves then?
I know. That’s why they’ve been almost impossible to stop, I guess. Can’t really deal with both, unless there’s a fantastically hard-working left-sided midfielder to accompany the LB, or to try to pin Alves back with attacking runs.
Eboue in LM seems a better idea. You get sufficent defensive cover that way. Besides he is versatile enough to make a contribution going forward on either flank (or he can will just dive around convincingly enough to win freekicks).
Wenger has to take a more conservative approach to this one. His team cannot outshine Barça. Fabregas will be used more to provide a single through pass rather than build up play. Besides if you play 3 DMs you can allow one at a time to move up and join the attack without worrying too much.
If only Wenger had realised that his side couldn’t hope to outplay Barca. Instead he tried to do just that and (unsurprisingly) failed horribly.
Jonathan Wilson comments on exactly this in his most recent blog post. http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2010/mar/24/the-question-inside-out-wingers
To quote the relevant section:
“Wide forwards can be stopped, but it takes a major change for the defending team. Alvaro Arbeloa’s marking job on Messi for Liverpool in 2007 shows how effective it can be switching a right-footed full-back to play on the left flank, and Young’s slightly stuttering form for Aston Villa earlier this season shows what can happen when full-backs get used to showing a player outside rather than inside.
“But then a player of the class of Ronaldo or Messi (as he is today) will simply go outside (could that, in fact, be why Barça bought Zlatan Ibrahimovic, to give them an aerial presence if Messi were forced into crossing more often?), and playing a right-footer at left-back or a left-footer at right-back immediately impairs their capacity to overlap.
“So, the wide forward is hard to combat, scores goals, can operate as a playmaker and creates space for attacking full-backs. All he doesn’t do is get to the by-line and curl in away swingers. He seems such a potent threat that the real puzzle is why he didn’t emerge earlier.”
I was thinking of that same article when I made the comment, and my thinking was along the lines of: “OK, the left-back might be impaired going forward, but on the other hand, it might (emphasis on ‘might’) help to mitigate what is surely the most dangerous threat in world football at the moment, i.e. Leo Messi cutting in from the right.” On balance that seems like an adequate trade-off if it worked.
Notwithstanding the obvious problem of Dani Alves, I’m not so sure that Messi would be as dangerous if he were forced to stick more to the wing, although I’d suppose Barca are flexible enough to deal with a situation like that (switch him down the middle, say). But at least it might give them something different to come up against and think about.
the game will be tight, no matter what. I think that the first leg will leave many fans who expected an open thrillastic goalfest disappointed. Teams playing 4-4-1-1 this season have given Barca the hardest of times and if Abidal is out as it seems, Wenger might fancy Walcott’s pace against Maxwell. I suspect that Wenger might go for the 4-4-1-1 a bit lopsided, with Walcott on the right and Eboué on the left. They will surely press Barca early. I also don’t think that Henry will start, although this would in theory be his game. But Pedro might just do tactically a better job against Sagna and keep him more at bay and create better space between lines. Given what Drogba usually does against Arsenal, I guess Pep will fancy Ibra up front, although a sandwich of Song-Campbell-Vermalen might nullify the aerial threat of Ibra, but it would leave room for Keita, to pop in the penalty area, hence why I think that Pep will start Keita simply as neither other midfielder is as good as him with the “llegada”.
I say Almunia-Sagna,Campbell-Vermalen-Clichy-Walcott,Song,Denilson,Eboué-Fabregas-Bendtner and Valdes-Alves,Piqué,Puyol,Maxwell-Xavi,Busquets,Keita-Messi,Ibra,Pedro and we will see a close game with few goals, but tactically on a high level.
It might have gone that way had Wenger actually set up his team to try and nullify Barcelona. Instead there were four goals (and there could’ve been more) and plenty of open play, especially from Barcelona.
Wenger has been intransigent on his choice of tactics all season. Despite the odds I don’t expect him to change the system at all and to shoehorn the personnel he has fit into the same 4-3-3 formation. Remember, he tried to push Fabregas into the hole at the tail end of last season with poor results. That said, here’s what I set up if I were in charge:
4-1-4-1
………….Almunia………….
Sagna..Campbell..Vermalen..Clichy
…………..Song……………
Eboue..Fabregas..Denilson..Rosicky
………….Walcott………….
Barca’s main defensive weakness is fast counterattacks at speed either from the quick ball over the top or extremely pacy wingers that can press from the front and pin Alves and Maxwell/Abidal back. But it’ll be too much of a risk gambling with Vela and Walcott on the wings in a 4-4-2 so 4-5-1 it is.
It is a nice idea but that formation leaves almost zero room for hold up play from the lone striker. It’s either long through ball or lose possession as young Theo cannot hold it up, least of all against as formidable a defence as Barca’s.
Walcotts pace is needed though, if at least to keep the opposition full-back in check – with that in mind I expect:
………….Almunia………….
Eboue..Campbell..Vermalen..Clichy
…………..Song……………
Walcott..Fabregas..Denilson..Rosicky
………….Bendtner………….
Eboue has been chosen over Sagna a number of times this season, Denilson as highlighted on ZM shows an outrageous consistency in keeping possession which against Barca is surely the best form of defence – i.e. don’t give them the ball and they can’t hurt you!
Bendtner is a gamble as his inconsistent finishing can curtail the best of tactics. But if Wenger gets him on a good night, I may be pushing the boat out too far, but an on fire Bendtner is surely *ahem* unplayable?
Either way, his holding up should enable the intelligent running from deep of Cesc and Rosicky (who also can damage from outside the box). I expect that’s where a goal would come from.
That’s actually an excellent lineup and probably the one Wenger should have gone with.
Denilson, in particular, should have started, especially in light of the stat that he completed more passes than any other Arsenal player despite not starting the match, key against Barca.
Ibra showed considerable improvement in Barça’s last game by moving all over the pitch. But if I were Pep i would still prefer Henry. Playing Henry allows more dynamism and mobility in the offense for Barça. The interchangeability of strikers should be useful against a well-disciplined Arsenal defense. Ibra would make things slightly easier for Campbell and Vermaulen.
Also ZM, consider Keita certain to start. Yaya came off with a knock on Saturday and Keita is regarded by many as Guardiola’s favourite due to his uncomplaining approach and versatility in offense and defense. So I would put down Yaya and Keita or Busquets and Keita behind Xavi. Pique may not be ready yet. (I also think the best player to match up against Arshavin would be Milito)
It will be important for Barça to keep the defense high up the pitch both, to deny Rosicky and Fabregas shooting opportunities and because Bendtner has neither the pace nor the confidence to finish a move if he is sent through on goal. Eboue on the left may be a good ploy to counter Messi. But to provide sufficient attacking threat Wenger may need to start Arshavin.
Guardiola’s surprise selection against Mallorca suggests that he has some plan up his sleeve for Arsenal. Here’s hoping the game lives up to its promise.
Crowding the midfield to reduce room for Xavi to operate has been an effective strategy against Barça this season. That would mean a high defense from Arsenal but I dont think Wenger is savvy enough or brave enough to try that. So the next best thing is 3 defensive midfielders to form a wall between the Barça midfield and defense.
Wenger should’ve played two DMs (Song and Denilson) and a high line. In the end he did neither.
Does this mean that Arsenal’s left side will be fairly non existent as an attacking unit. I mean its fair enough using two LB’s in Clichy and Eboue but you wouldn’t exactly trust Eboue to beat his man and set up a goal.
I wouldnt be surprised if all Arsenal’s attacks came from the right hand side.
What even if Arsenal play song diaby and Fabregas and move the best DM song to the left when Barca’s ttacking and keep Diaby in the middle?
The tactical analysis can’t leave out the effect of in-game momentum on how players perform the tactical roles their managers assign. Arsenal is clearly the underdog here, and I think it is fair to say that barring injuries/suspension to Messi, Xavi, AND Toure, Barcelona are certain to score at least two goals across both legs of this tie.
What will determine the outcome is when and where those goals occur. The first leg crucially is at Emirates. If Barca gets two there, the tie is effectively finished. Why?
1) Arsenal is a mentally and physically weak team. How many comebacks against equal class teams have you counted over the past 3 years? How many years running have they completely collapsed in the run-in towards the end of the season?
2) Arsenal lack the personnel to nullify the threat of Barca’s playmakers (although they do have the personnel to counterstrike). The DM’s are technical rather than dominant players, and the CB’s (particularly Vermaelon, although to his credit he is Arsenal’s “hard man”) are prone to lapses in concentration, particularly when going foward.
Man for man, the personnel on both sides may match up with a slight edge in overall talent to Barca. So I feel this match – moreso than the other 1/4 final matchups – will be more about which forwards are more clinical (particularly Messi), since there will be multiple clear opportunities for both sides. It will also come down to the level of confidence of the Arsenal players (which will probably be directly proportional to how quickly they can respond when Barca score, and the length of time AT HOME that they can prevent Barca from scoring)
All that said, I do believe that Wenger is aware of at least the second point, so I do think they will sit back with two DM in the first leg (even at home) early on to avoid conceding the early goal
That’s a high hope because in Arsenal’s last four home games against Chelsea and Man Utd (three in the Premier League, one in the Champions League semi final) the Gunners conceded two goals each time in the first half! Let’s pray Wenger doesn’t send his boys out with a gung-ho plan and respects the quality of the opposition for once.
For the record, I don’t recall Arsenal playing “gung-ho” in those matches. In the CL semi vs United last year, they were just flat out overwhelmed by the occasion, and in general they struggle against teams that are quality and physically dominant (as ZM has documented here before).
You can talk tactics all day, but if you try to play a technical game against players that are just as technically gifted as you but bigger and stronger (and more clinical at finishing), you’re generally going to get the short end of things. Arsenal’s biggest weakness isn’t tactical. Wenger’s long term track record proves that.
I tend to agree with that shingai. Arsene knows technique alone won’t cut it here. What he does know, is where to place his players to get the most out of them. That is why we all expect Eboue on the left – he can defend when necessary and also break out on the counter when needed. Wenger knows, however, that Fabregas will be unable to create much by himself, so Rosicky/Nasri are key. Expect Rosicky to get a lot of playing time tomorrow, same for Nasri in the second leg.
As for Pep, it really is easy to coach Barcelona when you have all those players at your choosing. Dani Alves can cross all day long to Ibra, and Messi can cut inside and out and beat defenders with his pace and technique. You also have Henry who has become a very savvy passer now that the scoring touch isn’t all there, and his role is wider.
Arsene knows he needs a goal tomorrow, cuz scoring at the Camp Nou will be tough for his young team. I think he is going to try and take advantage of Barca’s slow defence and have youngins run at them all night long. You have Denilson and Song keeping it tight before Sol and Vermaelen can screw things up.
This is going to be a great match, even if it ends up being a midfield tactical battle.
Playing 3 up front and letting his defenders venture forward at will sounds pretty gung ho to me. Playing the same game when the opponents have shown, repeatedly, that they know how to counter it, is careless and foolhardy. Wenger ain’t a genius tactician; he’s great at formulating foundational tactical philosophies but he’s never shown the ability to adapt his game plan as the situation demands. Even his ‘Invisibles’ never had a Plan B (which is why they never got far in Europe) and he ground his way to the final in Paris by sticking 10 men behind ball and relying on the sublime skills of Henry.
That Wenger hasn’t used tactical ingenuity to outwit the bigger foes proves my point not yours
Perhaps, Chump, perhaps.
Fact is, a “better” foe is just that. Better. Football tournaments are one-off, so a good tactical gameplan can provide upsets. If Euro 2004 Greece played each of their knockout opponents 10 times, better tactics or not, they would have a sub .500 record.
If you have inferior personnel, you need your players to have the discipline and will to follow the gameplan when the outcome is in doubt. I don’t know that we can really judge Wenger’s tactical abilities and say he’s genius or no when his team is full of players who fail to perform to their potential in big games. Maybe it is the coach’s job to realize that and plan accordingly, but the coach himself doesn’t play the game. I’ve seen it happen very often that a player practices with confidence, and plays confidently against weaker opponents, only to fall into self-doubt in crunch time. You can’t blame that on tactics.
We all call Ferguson a genius, but there never would have been the big trophy in 2008 if karma didn’t move a patch of grass beneath Terry’s foot for that fateful penalty. Hiddink would have been the genius who stumped Barca last year if Essien didn’t completely whiff the clearance that Messi eventually handed to Iniesta for ‘that goal.’ Wenger would have won a (first of many?) European trophy in 2000 if Suker’s penalty didn’t hit the post. The margins at that top level are so small that factors like self-confidence and ability to handle pressure make a big difference. As I said, the difference in quality between Barca and Arsenal is not huge – Arsenal has the weapons to exploit Barca’s weakness. It’s just that Arsenal’s biggest weakness is within the minds of the players…the mental toughness I alluded to earlier.
I don’t know where people are getting the information that Arshavin, Nasri, and Diaby will not be starting. Reports of knocks might be floating around, but Wenger has always been coy about injuries before CL ties. Arshavin lives to play in Europe. I can’t imagine Fabregas not finding the adrenaline to get past a bruise and face his former club at the biggest game ever at the Emirates. Nasri and Diaby are “slight doubts,” not real worries. All four of those should be penciled in as playing. Arsenal have been humiliated by United/Chelsea this season, and may have just lost the league at the weekend – this is their last big chance to prove themselves against the big boys this season. They will be raring to go. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gallas on the bench. And if Arsenal is fielding useless players like Walcott and Denilson on Wednesday, there’s no real point in analyzing the game – Barca will run rampant.
……………Almunia……………
Sagna…Campbell…Vermaelen…Clichy
………………..Song………….
……….Diaby………………….
……………Fabregas…………..
Nasri……………………Arshavin
……………Bendtner…………..
I don’t think that it’s in Arsenal’s best interests to change their game to adapt to Barca’s. Not only do they not have the personnel to play lockdown defense, but also Barca’s own defense has been a bit shaky. They’re also not used to playing open football with world class teams – in big CL ties, they are used to facing Chelsea ‘09 where ten men are always behind the ball. I think Wenger realizes this, and I wouldn’t expect anything drastic out of him – Arsenal playing their normal game can present a larger challenge to a Barca team that is used to having 60-70% possession in big games and having the time to slowly break down defenses.
One example where this attitude can help Arsenal is with the problem of the Alves/Messi right flank. I don’t think the answer to this is to put Eboue out of position at LW (or to take a similarly defensive measure positionally or with personnel) – this might help against the Messi/Alves threat, but it doesn’t leave Arsenal with the chance to score from that flank. Eboue is not going to suddenly learn how to cut inside. A Clichy-Eboue flank is not going to threaten offensively, and unlike United or Chelsea, Arsenal does not have a world-class striker up top who can create goals out of nothing. If Arsenal decides not to threaten offensively, this just allows Messi and Alves to sit on the offensive and continue to put pressure on Arsenal, and eventually they will break through.
I think it’s much wiser to leave Arshavin at LW. If Alves is going to be a threat, he will have to leave Arshavin alone. This is problematic for Barca. Alves is important, but he is ultimately an indirect threat. Arshavin at his best (and his big-game form has generally been great), by contrast, is constantly a threat to make a goal out of nothing. Arsenal are not accustomed to playing defensively, and I think that it’s best for them to play Arshavin and challenge Alves to go up. They should dare Barca to leave the relatively-immobile (but obviously fantastic) Puyol, Pique, and just-fit Abidal or slow Maxwell to cover against the Arsenal front three. Implore them to have holding mids cover for Alves, so Diaby and Fabregas have all the space they need in midfield.
Arsenal’s mental woes/inexperience/inopportune injuries over the past few years have shown themselves at critical points the last few years. By trying to play too much defense at home, it just makes Arsenal go out on the pitch with an inferiority complex. They won’t be playing their game, and ultimately, I think they can offer a threat that Barcelona is unaccustomed to if they leave all of their technical players in the side and play the Arsenal way.
This might turn out to be a blowout against the Gunners, I don’t know, but I really think that Arsenal have to play their game. Leave it to Vermaelen, Clichy, Song, and Diaby to neutralize Messi and Xavi, and have enough faith in their own squad to know that they threaten Barca just as much as Pedro/Henry/Ibra can.
That’s just it. I think, fundamentally, Arsenal’s players lack the faith in themselves as a team when victory is not assured going into the game.
Leave it to Vermaelen, Clichy, Song, and Diaby to neutralize Messi and Xavi, and have enough faith in their own squad to know that they threaten Barca just as much as Pedro/Henry/Ibra can
I like the second part of that sentence, but not so sure about the first one. I think the key to beating Barcelona is having a strong midfield that will not only help tremendously in the back, but also be able to push counters and create upfront. Arsenal’s midfield, while inexperienced, is young and motivated. I think they can do it, they just need to be smart about it.
Wait a second, Denilson’s useless? Compared to Diaby?! Denilson’s brilliant.
And when will Arsenal fans get off of Walcott’s back? Not every young player is a prodigy like Fabregas.
Arsenal haven’t played 4-3-3 since Van Persie was injured.
It’s much more of a 4-2-3-1, Fabregas clearly plays on a higher band up the pitch (which helps make up for the loss of van Persie’s goals).
—————Almunia—————-
————————————–
Sagna—Campbell—-Vermaelen—Clichy
————————————–
————Song———————-
——————–Diaby————-
————————————–
—Nasri——-Fabregas—–Arshavin–
————————————–
—————Bendtner—————
(Obviously depending on injuries/fitness, replace Campbell with Gallas, and Fabregas with Nasri with Eboue moving into the right wing slot.)
Busquets (if he starts ahead of Toure, which I’m hoping) will be tasked with marking Fabregas. This means a) Fabregas will drop deeper to find space, negating his goalthreat and b) Nasri can have a bit more license to roam infields and take up some of the creative duties. It shouldn’t be too much of a problem tactically since I don’t expect Barcelona to have much attacking threat down the left flank (Abidal has been much better going forward this season but remains an injury doubt).
Arshavin will need to play an aggressive attacking game to stop Alves from advancing forward.
Diaby and Song will do an excellent role containing Barcelona’s midfield + Messi, and helping to start counterattacks.
I’m an Arsenal fan and I don’t want to be biased but I think this game is winnable. Unfortunately I don’t see us keeping a clean sheet given the events at the weekend, it’s bound to play on the players’ minds. 2-1 is my (conservative) prediction. I hope I’m right
I think the key for Arsenal is to push the match into a quicker tempo than Barca wants. The main difference between the two club’s possession based football is the higher tempo that Arsenal look to play with compared to the more deliberate possession Barca use. Especially without Iniesta, the one player who drives Barca forward from midfield, Arsenal’s best chance is to look to pressure the ball high and attempt to turn the match into a “english-style” match. If Arsenal sit back and allow Barca to dictate a more languid tempo, Barca will cut their defense to pieces and they’ll be going into the second leg down a couple goals.
Spot on. A repeat of Arsenal’s 2nd leg performance vs Porto should be enough to win the match.
I don’t think the question is whether Arsenal can beat Barcelona (because they definitely can), it’s more can they avoid letting in a costly away goal or two?
I like the idea of Messi through the middle. You imagine he would get the better of Campbell enough times to be decisive.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2010/mar/31/how-to-beat-barcelona-arsenal
Walcott. Now that’s a gamble that paid off.
Was never a penalty though. Since when is getting kicked from behind a foul on you?
I take that back, was a foul.