Champions League ties – home or away first?
The most famous away goal in Champions League history?
There is a feeling amongst football fans that when it comes to Champions League knockout fixtures, your side is better off playing the first leg away from home, with the comfort of the second leg back at your own ground. Arsenal’s task against Barcelona is trickier, apparently, because they’ll have to go to the Nou Camp in the second leg and get a result.
The first example of how it’s not necessarily an advantage to play the second leg at home comes when you consider the possibility of extra-time in the second leg. As UEFA’s rules put it:
“In the event of both teams registering the same number of goals, the side that scores more away goals goes through. If they are still level, two 15-minute periods of extra time will ensue at the end of the second leg. If, during extra time, both teams get the same number of goals, away goals count double. If no goals are scored during extra time, a penalty shoot-out will follow.”
In other words, the away goals rule does apply in extra-time. So, should the match go to extra-time in the second leg, the side playing away from home in the second game will have 30 extra minutes than their opponents to score that all-important away goal. Yes, this is balanced out by the fact that the home side have home advantage for a longer period of time, but given the choice, wouldn’t you rather play that extra half hour away from home knowing that a score draw (within that extra-time period) would send you through?
The second question also concerns the away goals rule. Football is a game where the two opposing sides look to feel each other out during the opening period of a tie, particularly in a two-legged match. First legs are often extremely tight and cagey affairs, with the second becoming more open and free-scoring. The two legs can often have completely contrasting natures as a result of this. Take the example of the recent Atletico Madrid v Sporting clash in the Europa League. The first leg was a bore 0-0 in Madrid as the sides looked to work each other out, before they really went for it during the second leg, and produced an exciting 2-2 draw in Lisbon. Atletico went through on away goals, but this was really simply because the second leg was naturally more open, rather than a particularly more attacking attitude away from home.
But a one-off anecdote hardly proves the point, so instead, here are the total goals scored in first and second legs during the last two Champions League knockout stages (2007/08 and 2008/09), along with the results from this season’s second round matches:
And if you’re wondering about the breakdown of that:
That’s over a sample of 36 matches in total, and there is a difference of 27 goals between first and second legs. That means the second legs see 0.75 more goals per game than first legs, which is quite a large difference.
So, considering that second legs are significantly more high-scoring than first legs, would you not rather be playing away in the second leg, where goals for your side count for more?
Additional research about which side is more likely to progress by Chris below
Champions League ties – home or away first?
I remain unconvinced especially given the statistic you have used. We need to be looking at how many goals were scored by the HOME team in the first and second leg not the total goals scored. In the 2009/10 season that 27-20 disparity is the result of Barcelona, Man Utd and Arsenal spanking the visiting sides which would make the counter point to the general thrust of this article.
It would also be interesting to know how often games are decided by away goals or does the shadow of away goals cause games to evolve differently.
I would add it would be interesting to know, almost regardless of goals, statistically who progresses more often? The team who starts at home or the team that starts away?
If we take the 36 games given here as an example, the team that starts away has gone through 20 times and the team that starts at home 16 times. In 2007/08, 9 out of 14 ties were won by the team that started away, in 2008/09 it was 7 out of 14, and so far this season 4 out of 8.
Only four ties have been decided by away goals and in this case the team playing away in the second leg has won 3 out of 4. Interestingly the three games that were decided on penalties were all won by the away side, so perhaps there is a psychological advantage in those circumstances.
Just to add a little extra depth; of the 16 ties that where the team playing away in the second leg went through, 11 had won the first leg and 5 had drawn. Of the 20 times that the team playing home in the second leg went through, 8 had won the first leg, 10 had drawn and 2 had lost. The last team to win a Champions League knockout tie after losing the first leg at home was Ajax in 1996.
The conclusion I’d draw from this is that for the team playing at home in the first leg to go through it is almost imperative that they win, the team playing at home in the second leg has a much greater chance if the scores are equal.
Also I just want to say that this website is fantastic, easily better than 99% of football journalism in Britain.
“The conclusion I’d draw from this is that for the team playing at home in the first leg to go through it is almost imperative that they win, the team playing at home in the second leg has a much greater chance if the scores are equal.”
Chris – I think what you mean is the team playing at home in the second leg has a much greater chance if the scores are equal AFTER THE FIRST LEG. I was a bit confused at first since in your earlier comment you mentioned that 3 out of 4 ties decided on away goals went to the team playing away in the second leg. Please correct me if the following is wrong:
H+A – 16 wins
– 11 with wins in the 1st leg at home
– 5 with draws in the 1st leg at home
A+H – 20 wins
– 8 with wins in the 1st leg away
– 10 with draws in the 1st leg away
So if scores are tied after the 1st leg, team playing away in the 1st leg is statistically more successful.
But, if scores are tied after both legs, team playing away in the 2nd leg is statistically more successful.
Cheers for the info Chris. I think that info is more telling than goals scored.
The 1st leg gives a chance to feel out the team (tactics and players) that you are up against. Thus allowing adjustments to be made. An offensive strategy is often devised to break down what the opposition’s defense is trying to do. However defensive strategy is more likely to be rigid in terms of adjustments. Usually because teams build from the back line up, so which players are making runs to goal can be varied much easier than assigning a new defensive role. In short, I agree completely with the article. Just wanted to add my thoughts on why I feel this happens.
Also, I Love this website! I find I get a little excited whenever I come here and see a new entry. Keep up the great work!
Home and Away is something that cannot be analysed on entirely factual grounds. The whole concept of Home and Away matches would be pointless without considering the sentiment of the players or teams. Most player and coach reactions reflect a preference to playing the 2nd leg at home. And therefore when that happens, it may be considered an advantage simply because it is what a team feels more comfortable with.
There is perhaps the feeling among players that whatever the result in the away leg, with the inspiration of crowd support and familiar conditions the tie can be turned around.
Don’t forget the ever important refs which make up part of the advantage of being at home. Crucial decisions are more likely to occur in the 2nd game and the ref is more likely to side with the home team.
This draw has set up some interesting games. From a football purist’s view, Arsenal vs Barcelona is the pick of the bunch. I just can’t see how this will be anything other than a cracking game (famous last words!). Then we’re likely to see Mourinho’s tactically astute Inter up against the free flowing football of Barca or Arsenal. And the winner of that will most likely facing Man Utd (although Bayern could be a tough test for them).
Having said that, I think the best football could be in the Europa Cup. Bremen v Valencia and Fulham v Juventus were great games, with Lisbon and Madrid apparently serving up a cracker. Benfica vs Liverpool in the next round could be more interetsing than all the Champions League QFs (bar Arsenal v Barca)
The way that the team playing the 2nd leg at home gets 30 extra minutes in front of their own fans and this is ‘balanced’ by having 30 more minutes for the away team to score an away goal is so arbitrary. Who is to say that these things equate?
Its an interesting debate but I’d still come down in favour of playing the home leg 2nd. I know it may seem a pretty basic argument to put forward on an analytical tactics site like this but I think Fulham showed last night that with the crowd behind you its amazing what can be achieved when you know that you need to go out and score goals. My feeling is that Arsenal won’t know whether to stick or twist at The Emirates and thats a dangerous situation to be in with 90+ mins in the Camp Nou waiting for you.
I noticed this in South America’s Copa Libertadores. Over here the Final match also has two home/away legs, and the last time the champions played the second leg at home was in 2005, when Sao Paulo won.
A paper from 2008 about this topic found that playing the second leg at home was an advantage, although one that had diminished quite considerably over time: http://heythrop.academia.edu/documents/0000/9344/Page_Page2007.pdf
The Fink tank also did a column about it last year, but i cant find it anywhere. I’m not sure what their conclusions were though.
*2007 obvs
I’d like to add some more “sheer numbers”.
Case study – Barcelona
Period – 1999-2010 [Arsenal included]
Playing second leg away from home Barcelona only qualified on 3 out of 8 occasions [and two of them were Bayern and Chelsea last year - so basically just ONE qualification after second leg away for Barca 1999-present]
37%
Playing second leg home Barcelona have qualified on 15 out of 18 occasions.
83%
There are also psychological factors involved which turn the chances in favour of someone playing second leg home.
Also in Barcelona’s case two more factors need to be asserted: it’s a big club playing WAY better at home and the numbers are tilted because of meeting weaker opponents as winners of the Champions League group [which Barca usualy is]
After seeing that three of the four quarter-finalists went through after playing the home leg first (although unfortunately for ZM, Arsenal were the exception), it’s interesting to note that in the last three seasons teams that win the first leg have been more likely to go through than teams that play the second leg at home.
Including the quarter-finals, the data from 2007/2008 onwards is:
H+A: 19 wins with 14 winning the first leg.
A+H: 21 wins with 8 winning the first leg.
Teams going through after winning the first leg: 22 out of 40
Teams going through after losing the first leg: 2 out of 40
In comparison, if we take the data from 2003/2004, when the round of 16 was introduced, to 2006/2007, home advantage in the second leg was much more significant.
H+A: 19 wins with 14 winning the first leg.
A+H: 37 wins with 12 winning the first leg.
Teams going through after winning the first leg: 26 out of 56
Teams going through after losing the first leg: 11 out of 56
Obviously these numbers don’t explain why teams have found it more difficult to overturn a first leg deficit in the past couple of seasons. Given that more goals tend to be scored in the second leg, perhaps teams that win the first leg at home are more inclined to attack and try and kill off the tie rather than defend a lead.
Good article, and a nice discussion.
When you look at the breakdown of which teams ultimatly progress, it’s important to remember that in the round of 16 the winners of the groups play the first game away from home. This naturally gives false statistics since a team finishing 1st in their group will be favorites compared to a team finishing second.
I feel this stats won’t matter that much. It all comes to psychological pressure of the players and how good the managers man-manage their players to deal with it. At the end of the day as team, you need to score the away goal and not concede when u’r home.
Interesting to note that both this year’s finalists played the home leg first in each knockout round, the second time that Jose Mourinho has led a team to the final under such circumstances.
add Liverpool v Athletico Madrid today as another statistic that backs up this theory
So, with this in mind, I think an interesting question is whether managers should try to convince their players that playing away in the second leg isn’t as bad as previously imagined.
The problem with this is that if the manager do convince his players that playing the second game away from home is’nt so bad, they will on the other hand loose some of the feelings described above with regards to playing their second game at home. Instead of a having an invincible feeling at home in the second leg, they will then be more prone to akcnowledging that the other team, with away the second game, might have an advantage.
So, obviously, its a a two-sided knifes edge here, that has to do with the psychology of the players.
Yes that’s what I meant, I apologise for not making that clearer. I should also point out that I made an error earlier. Only 3 games were decided on away goals (Atletico vs. Porto and Barcelona vs. Chelsea last season, and Bayern vs. Fiorentina this season) so it should be 2 out of 3 ties and not 3 out of 4.